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Quebec

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata


MNA: Amélie Dionne (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning PQ gain
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 38% ± 7%▼ PQ 32% ± 7% CAQ 12% ± 4%▼ QS 10% ± 4%▲ CPQ 7% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 52.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 85%▼ PQ 15%▲ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 38% ± 7% CAQ 32% ± 7% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% PQ 18% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 51% PQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 51% PQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 50% PQ 22% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 50% PQ 22% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 43% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 44% PQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 44% PQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 47% PQ 27% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 44% PQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 44% PQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 38% PQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 33% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 35% CAQ 33% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 35% PQ 35% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 36% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 35% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 35% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 36% CAQ 34% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 37% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 40% CAQ 31% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 41% CAQ 30% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 39% CAQ 32% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 38% CAQ 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata

LIB <1% PQ 85% CAQ 15% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 89% PQ 11% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 68% PQ 32% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 69% CAQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 75% PQ 25% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 55% CAQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 55% CAQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 51% CAQ 49% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 63% CAQ 37% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 71% CAQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 89% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 16.6% 39.2% 52.1% 32% ± 7% PQ 23.9% 15.2% 17.6% 38% ± 7% QS 6.1% 11.0% 14.6% 12% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 11.3% 10% ± 4% LIB 51.7% 33.5% 4.0% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%