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Quebec

Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata


MNA: Amélie Dionne

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 40% ± 7%▲ PQ 31% ± 6%▼ CAQ 13% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4%▼ CPQ 5% ± 2% LIB CAQ 2022 52.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 95%▲ PQ 5%▼ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata

LIB 5% ± 2% PQ 40% ± 7% CAQ 31% ± 6% QS 13% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 46% LIB 23% CPQ 10% PQ 10% QS 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 46% LIB 22% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 45% LIB 22% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 45% LIB 22% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 45% LIB 22% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 45% LIB 22% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% PQ 9% QS 9% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% PQ 9% QS 9% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% PQ 9% QS 9% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 13% PQ 10% QS 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 15% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 15% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 16% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 16% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 16% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 44% LIB 22% CPQ 16% PQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 42% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 43% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 41% LIB 21% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 41% LIB 19% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 42% LIB 18% CPQ 16% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 16% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 44% LIB 18% CPQ 16% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 44% LIB 18% CPQ 16% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 42% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 43% LIB 18% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% PQ 18% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 51% PQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 51% PQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 50% PQ 22% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 50% PQ 22% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 43% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 44% PQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 44% PQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 47% PQ 27% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 44% PQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 44% PQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 38% PQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 33% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 35% CAQ 33% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 35% PQ 35% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 36% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 36% CAQ 35% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 35% CAQ 35% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 36% CAQ 34% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 37% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 40% CAQ 31% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata

LIB <1% PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 89% PQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 68% PQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 69% CAQ 31% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 52% PQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 55% CAQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 55% CAQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 63% CAQ 37% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 71% CAQ 29% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 16.6% 39.2% 52.1% 31% ± 6% PQ 23.9% 15.2% 17.6% 40% ± 7% QS 6.1% 11.0% 14.6% 13% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 11.3% 9% ± 4% LIB 51.7% 33.5% 4.0% 5% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.