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Quebec


Îles-de-la-Madeleine


MNA: Joël Arseneau (PQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Safe PQ hold
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 63% ± 11%▲ 23% ± 10%▼ 6% ± 5%▼ 6% ± 5%▲ PQ 2022 46.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Îles-de-la-Madeleine >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LIB 6% ± 5% PQ 63% ± 11% CAQ 23% ± 10% QS 6% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Îles-de-la-Madeleine 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Odds of winning | Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Îles-de-la-Madeleine



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 40.2% 38.7% 46.4% 63% ± 11% CAQ 3.2% 9.3% 39.9% 23% ± 10% LIB 50.1% 38.4% 7.2% 6% ± 5% QS 6.0% 13.6% 5.4% 6% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%