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Quebec

Îles-de-la-Madeleine


MNA: Joël Arseneau

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe PQ hold
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 69% ± 10%▲ PQ 15% ± 8%▼ CAQ 8% ± 6% LIB 4% ± 4%▼ QS PQ 2022 46.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Îles-de-la-Madeleine >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LIB 8% ± 6% PQ 69% ± 10% CAQ 15% ± 8% QS 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Îles-de-la-Madeleine 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 32% PQ 31% LIB 20% QS 13% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 33% PQ 30% LIB 19% QS 13% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 32% PQ 28% LIB 20% QS 13% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 34% PQ 32% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 34% PQ 32% LIB 15% QS 13% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 34% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 PQ 34% CAQ 33% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 PQ 33% CAQ 33% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 PQ 33% CAQ 33% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 PQ 33% CAQ 33% LIB 16% QS 13% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 12% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 12% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 12% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 12% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 16% QS 12% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 34% PQ 31% LIB 16% QS 12% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 PQ 33% CAQ 32% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 32% PQ 32% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 33% PQ 31% LIB 16% QS 14% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 33% PQ 31% LIB 16% QS 14% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 PQ 33% CAQ 31% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 PQ 33% CAQ 32% QS 14% LIB 14% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 32% PQ 32% QS 15% LIB 14% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 33% PQ 32% QS 14% LIB 14% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 33% PQ 32% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 35% PQ 30% LIB 16% QS 14% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 35% PQ 31% LIB 16% QS 14% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 PQ 34% CAQ 32% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 PQ 34% CAQ 33% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 33% PQ 33% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 33% PQ 33% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 33% PQ 33% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 33% PQ 33% LIB 15% QS 14% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 PQ 46% CAQ 40% LIB 7% QS 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 50% CAQ 37% LIB 7% QS 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 50% CAQ 37% LIB 7% QS 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 47% CAQ 39% LIB 6% QS 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 47% CAQ 39% LIB 6% QS 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 57% CAQ 32% LIB 6% QS 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 58% CAQ 32% QS 5% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 58% CAQ 32% QS 5% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 52% CAQ 37% QS 5% LIB 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 50% CAQ 36% LIB 6% QS 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 50% CAQ 36% LIB 6% QS 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 58% CAQ 28% LIB 6% QS 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 59% CAQ 27% LIB 7% QS 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 63% CAQ 23% LIB 6% QS 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 66% CAQ 18% LIB 7% QS 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 66% CAQ 19% LIB 7% QS 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 64% CAQ 21% LIB 7% QS 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 66% CAQ 19% LIB 7% QS 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 67% CAQ 18% LIB 8% QS 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 65% CAQ 18% LIB 9% QS 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 65% CAQ 18% LIB 9% QS 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 66% CAQ 18% LIB 8% QS 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 65% CAQ 18% LIB 8% QS 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 67% CAQ 17% LIB 8% QS 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 69% CAQ 15% LIB 8% QS 4% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 52% PQ 46% LIB 2% QS <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 61% PQ 37% LIB 2% QS <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 68% PQ 30% LIB 3% QS <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 57% PQ 43% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 56% PQ 44% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 57% PQ 43% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 54% PQ 46% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 PQ 51% CAQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 PQ 51% CAQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 PQ 51% CAQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 54% PQ 46% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 57% PQ 43% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 PQ 53% CAQ 46% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 56% PQ 44% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 56% PQ 44% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 PQ 58% CAQ 42% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 PQ 57% CAQ 43% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 51% PQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 51% PQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 68% PQ 31% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 68% PQ 32% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 PQ 57% CAQ 43% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 PQ 53% CAQ 47% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 50% PQ 50% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 PQ 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 79% CAQ 21% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 100% CAQ 0% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Îles-de-la-Madeleine



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 40.2% 38.7% 46.4% 69% ± 10% CAQ 3.2% 9.3% 39.9% 15% ± 8% LIB 50.1% 38.4% 7.2% 8% ± 6% QS 6.0% 13.6% 5.4% 4% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.