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Quebec


Sanguinet


MNA: Christine Fréchette (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Toss up PQ/CAQ
Sanguinet 34% ± 7%▲ 32% ± 7% 13% ± 5% 10% ± 4% 10% ± 4% CAQ 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Sanguinet 59% 41% <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sanguinet

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 34% ± 7% CAQ 32% ± 7% QS 13% ± 5% QCP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Sanguinet 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Sanguinet

LIB <1% PQ 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Sanguinet



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 31.8% 43.5% 48.8% 32% ± 7% PQ 35.1% 24.8% 16.3% 34% ± 7% QS 5.7% 14.7% 13.1% 13% ± 5% QCP 0.7% 1.2% 10.6% 10% ± 4% LIB 25.4% 14.0% 9.9% 10% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%