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Quebec

Sanguinet


MNA: Christine Fréchette (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Sanguinet 37% ± 7%▼ PQ 27% ± 6%▲ CAQ 16% ± 5%▲ LIB 10% ± 4%▲ CPQ 8% ± 4%▼ QS CAQ 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sanguinet 98%▼ PQ 2%▲ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sanguinet

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 37% ± 7% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Sanguinet 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 49% PQ 16% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 13% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 13% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 9% CPQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 47% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 13% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 13% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 24% QS 13% LIB 9% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% PQ 22% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% PQ 22% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 40% PQ 25% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 33% CAQ 32% QS 13% LIB 10% CPQ 10% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 34% CAQ 32% QS 13% LIB 10% CPQ 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 37% CAQ 28% QS 13% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 36% CAQ 31% QS 12% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 39% CAQ 27% QS 12% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 42% CAQ 25% QS 12% LIB 11% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 43% CAQ 26% LIB 12% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 25% LIB 13% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 40% CAQ 28% LIB 13% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 40% CAQ 27% LIB 13% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 36% CAQ 29% LIB 13% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 39% CAQ 27% LIB 13% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 41% CAQ 26% LIB 13% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 42% CAQ 25% LIB 13% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 41% CAQ 26% LIB 13% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 37% CAQ 27% LIB 16% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Sanguinet

LIB <1% PQ 98% CAQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Sanguinet



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 31.8% 43.5% 48.8% 27% ± 6% PQ 35.1% 24.8% 16.3% 37% ± 7% QS 5.7% 14.7% 13.1% 8% ± 4% CPQ 0.7% 1.2% 10.6% 10% ± 4% LIB 25.4% 14.0% 9.9% 16% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%