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Quebec

Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques


MNA: Manon Massé (QS)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
QS likely hold
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 41% ± 9%▼ QS 30% ± 7%▼ PQ 17% ± 6%▲ LIB 6% ± 3%▲ CAQ 5% ± 3%▲ CPQ QS 2022 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 95%▼ QS 5%▲ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

LIB 17% ± 6% PQ 30% ± 7% CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 41% ± 9% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 48% LIB 16% PQ 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 47% LIB 16% PQ 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 47% LIB 16% PQ 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 50% PQ 16% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 50% PQ 16% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 50% PQ 17% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 50% PQ 19% CAQ 14% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 50% PQ 19% CAQ 14% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 48% PQ 19% CAQ 14% LIB 13% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 47% PQ 17% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 47% PQ 17% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 45% PQ 18% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 45% PQ 19% LIB 15% CAQ 13% CPQ 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 46% PQ 27% LIB 13% CAQ 9% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 51% PQ 26% LIB 11% CAQ 6% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 48% PQ 28% LIB 11% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 48% PQ 28% LIB 11% CAQ 8% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 49% PQ 28% LIB 10% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 47% PQ 29% LIB 11% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 45% PQ 29% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 45% PQ 29% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 46% PQ 29% LIB 12% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 47% PQ 28% LIB 12% CAQ 6% CPQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 45% PQ 30% LIB 12% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 45% PQ 32% LIB 12% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 44% PQ 32% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 44% PQ 32% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 41% PQ 30% LIB 17% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

LIB <1% PQ 5% CAQ <1% QS 95% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 95% PQ 5% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 30.6% 49.3% 47.7% 41% ± 9% LIB 30.3% 21.2% 15.9% 17% ± 6% PQ 27.6% 14.0% 14.7% 30% ± 7% CAQ 8.6% 11.0% 14.3% 6% ± 3% CPQ 0.0% 0.5% 5.0% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%