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Quebec

Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques


MNA: Manon Massé (QS)

Latest projection: May 19, 2024
QS likely hold
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 45% ± 9%▼ QS 29% ± 7% PQ 13% ± 5%▲ LIB 7% ± 3% CAQ 4% ± 3% QCP QS 2022 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 99%▼ QS 1%▲ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

LIB 13% ± 5% PQ 29% ± 7% CAQ 7% ± 3% QS 45% ± 9% QCP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

LIB <1% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 30.6% 49.3% 47.7% 45% ± 9% LIB 30.3% 21.2% 15.9% 13% ± 5% PQ 27.6% 14.0% 14.7% 29% ± 7% CAQ 8.6% 11.0% 14.3% 7% ± 3% QCP 0.0% 0.5% 5.0% 4% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.