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Quebec

Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques


MNA: Manon Massé (QS)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
QS likely

Recent electoral history | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques


2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 41% ± 8% 30.6% 49.3% 47.7% PQ 26% ± 7% 27.6% 14.0% 14.7% LIB 21% ± 6% 30.3% 21.2% 15.9% CAQ 5% ± 3% 8.6% 11.0% 14.3% CPQ 5% ± 3% 0.0% 0.5% 5.0%




338Canada projection for Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques


Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 41% ± 8%▼ QS 26% ± 7%▼ PQ 21% ± 6%▲ LIB 5% ± 3% CAQ 5% ± 3% CPQ QS 2022 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

LIB 21% ± 6% PQ 26% ± 7% CAQ 5% ± 3% QS 41% ± 8% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 48% PQ 28% LIB 11% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 48% PQ 28% LIB 11% CAQ 8% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 49% PQ 28% LIB 10% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 47% PQ 29% LIB 11% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 45% PQ 29% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 45% PQ 29% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 46% PQ 29% LIB 12% CAQ 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 47% PQ 28% LIB 12% CAQ 6% CPQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 45% PQ 30% LIB 12% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 45% PQ 32% LIB 12% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 44% PQ 32% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 44% PQ 32% LIB 13% CAQ 5% CPQ 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 41% PQ 30% LIB 17% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 40% PQ 30% LIB 17% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 42% PQ 29% LIB 17% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 43% PQ 30% LIB 15% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 42% PQ 29% LIB 16% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 QS 43% PQ 27% LIB 18% CAQ 5% CPQ 5% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 QS 41% PQ 26% LIB 21% CAQ 5% CPQ 5% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

LIB <1% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 95% PQ 5% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 94% PQ 6% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 QS 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 QS 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader