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Quebec

Lac-Saint-Jean


MNA: Éric Girard

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Lac-Saint-Jean 45% ± 8%▲ PQ 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 12% ± 5%▼ CPQ 9% ± 4% LIB 6% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 51.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lac-Saint-Jean >99%▲ PQ <1%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lac-Saint-Jean

LIB 9% ± 4% PQ 45% ± 8% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Lac-Saint-Jean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 48% PQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 48% PQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 47% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 47% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 47% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 47% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% CPQ 20% PQ 16% QS 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% CPQ 20% PQ 16% QS 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 20% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% PQ 16% QS 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 47% PQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 48% PQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 48% PQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 48% CPQ 15% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% PQ 15% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 46% PQ 19% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 44% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 44% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 44% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 44% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 47% PQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 47% PQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 43% PQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 44% PQ 23% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 42% PQ 25% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 42% PQ 25% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 42% PQ 25% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 42% PQ 25% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 51% PQ 26% CPQ 11% QS 8% LIB 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 50% PQ 29% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 50% PQ 29% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% PQ 31% QS 8% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% PQ 31% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 44% PQ 38% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 44% PQ 39% QS 8% CPQ 6% LIB 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 44% PQ 39% QS 8% CPQ 6% LIB 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 47% PQ 34% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 44% PQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 8% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 44% PQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 8% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 3% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 43% CAQ 35% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 44% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 43% CAQ 34% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 44% CAQ 33% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 44% CAQ 32% CPQ 9% LIB 8% QS 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 42% CAQ 30% LIB 10% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 42% CAQ 31% LIB 10% CPQ 9% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 43% CAQ 30% LIB 10% CPQ 9% QS 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% LIB 9% QS 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 42% CAQ 28% CPQ 14% LIB 9% QS 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% LIB 9% QS 6% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Lac-Saint-Jean

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 81% PQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 76% PQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 76% PQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 55% CAQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Lac-Saint-Jean



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 18.3% 39.3% 51.5% 26% ± 6% PQ 44.5% 31.8% 25.6% 45% ± 8% CPQ 0.8% 0.9% 11.4% 12% ± 5% QS 6.3% 14.8% 7.6% 6% ± 3% LIB 28.2% 12.5% 3.0% 9% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.