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Quebec


Mégantic


MNA: François Jacques (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Toss up PQ/CAQ
Mégantic 32% ± 7%▲ 29% ± 7%▼ 17% ± 6% 15% ± 5%▲ 6% ± 3%▼ CAQ 2022 46.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mégantic 67%▲ 33%▼ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mégantic

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 32% ± 7% CAQ 29% ± 7% QS 15% ± 5% QCP 17% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Mégantic 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Mégantic

LIB <1% PQ 67% CAQ 33% QS <1% QCP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Recent electoral history | Mégantic



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 22.9% 47.5% 46.2% 29% ± 7% QCP 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 17% ± 6% QS 5.8% 16.0% 12.8% 15% ± 5% PQ 29.6% 12.6% 12.8% 32% ± 7% LIB 40.8% 19.8% 5.7% 6% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%