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Quebec

Mégantic


MNA: François Jacques

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Mégantic 29% ± 7%▲ PQ 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 18% ± 6%▼ CPQ 12% ± 5%▲ LIB 12% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 46.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mégantic 66%▲ PQ 34%▼ CAQ <1%▼ CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mégantic

LIB 12% ± 5% PQ 29% ± 7% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 18% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Mégantic 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 54% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 54% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 53% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 53% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 53% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 53% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 52% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% LIB 13% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% LIB 13% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% LIB 13% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% LIB 13% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% LIB 13% QS 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 14% LIB 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 48% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 49% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 12% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 49% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 14% LIB 12% PQ 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 46% CPQ 22% PQ 13% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 46% CPQ 20% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 46% CPQ 20% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 15% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% PQ 16% QS 15% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 23% CPQ 16% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% CPQ 20% PQ 19% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% CPQ 20% PQ 19% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 33% PQ 28% CPQ 18% QS 14% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% PQ 30% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 32% CAQ 29% CPQ 17% QS 15% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 32% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% QS 15% LIB 7% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 28% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 30% CAQ 29% CPQ 18% QS 15% LIB 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 32% CAQ 27% CPQ 17% QS 15% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% CAQ 29% CPQ 17% QS 13% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 29% PQ 28% CPQ 20% QS 11% LIB 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 30% PQ 27% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% PQ 27% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 30% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 13% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 29% PQ 26% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 29% CAQ 27% CPQ 18% LIB 12% QS 12% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Mégantic

LIB <1% PQ 66% CAQ 34% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 54% PQ 46% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 67% CAQ 33% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 84% CAQ 16% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 77% CAQ 23% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 56% CAQ 44% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 82% CAQ 18% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 65% CAQ 35% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 50% PQ 49% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 73% PQ 27% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 68% PQ 31% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 75% PQ 25% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 72% PQ 26% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 66% CAQ 34% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Mégantic



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 22.9% 47.5% 46.2% 27% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 18% ± 6% QS 5.8% 16.0% 12.8% 12% ± 4% PQ 29.6% 12.6% 12.8% 29% ± 7% LIB 40.8% 19.8% 5.7% 12% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.