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Quebec

Arthabaska


MNA: Éric Lefebvre (IND)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
Arthabaska 28% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 6% PQ 26% ± 6% CPQ 9% ± 3% LIB 7% ± 3% QS 2% ± 1% IND CAQ 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Arthabaska 50% CAQ 33% PQ 17% CPQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Arthabaska

LIB 9% ± 3% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 28% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 26% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Arthabaska 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 22% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 34% PQ 26% CPQ 22% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 22% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 32% PQ 29% CPQ 22% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 22% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 33% PQ 29% CPQ 21% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 32% PQ 29% CPQ 21% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% PQ 29% CPQ 24% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 29% PQ 29% CPQ 25% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 30% CPQ 26% CAQ 26% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 26% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 27% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 28% CPQ 27% CAQ 27% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 26% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 26% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Arthabaska

LIB <1% PQ 33% CAQ 50% CPQ 17% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 82% PQ 17% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 94% PQ 5% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 77% PQ 22% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 78% PQ 22% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 78% PQ 21% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 82% PQ 18% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 72% PQ 28% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 52% PQ 43% CPQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 47% PQ 43% CPQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 72% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 40% CAQ 39% CPQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 39% PQ 32% CPQ 29% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 45% CPQ 31% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 50% PQ 33% CPQ 17% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 50% PQ 33% CPQ 17% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Arthabaska



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 45.5% 61.8% 51.7% 28% ± 6% CPQ 1.1% 2.3% 24.7% 26% ± 6% PQ 17.1% 9.4% 10.0% 27% ± 6% QS 5.2% 12.6% 9.2% 7% ± 3% LIB 30.2% 11.4% 3.8% 9% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%