logo
Quebec

Recent electoral history | Arthabaska-L’Érable


2014 2018 2022 Projection PQ 44% ± 7% 17.1% 9.4% 10.0% CPQ 34% ± 7% 1.1% 2.3% 24.7% LIB 11% ± 4% 30.2% 11.4% 3.8% CAQ 7% ± 3% 45.5% 61.8% 51.7% QS 4% ± 2% 5.2% 12.6% 9.2%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Quebec flag

338Canada Arthabaska-L’Érable projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Arthabaska-L’Érable 36% 51% 44% ± 7% PQ 27% 41% 34% ± 7% CPQ 7% 14% 11% ± 4% LIB 4% 9% 7% ± 3% CAQ 2% 6% 4% ± 2% QS CAQ 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Arthabaska-L’Érable 95%▲ PQ 5%▼ CPQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Arthabaska-L’Érable

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 44% ± 7% CAQ 7% ± 3% QS 4% ± 2% CPQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Arthabaska-L’Érable 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 28% CPQ 27% CAQ 27% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 26% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 26% LIB 9% QS 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 29% CPQ 27% CAQ 26% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 31% CPQ 31% CAQ 17% LIB 12% QS 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 37% CPQ 37% LIB 9% CAQ 9% QS 6% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 45% CPQ 36% LIB 8% CAQ 7% QS 3% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 49% CPQ 33% LIB 7% CAQ 7% QS 2% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 49% CPQ 35% LIB 8% CAQ 5% QS 2% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 50% CPQ 34% LIB 8% CAQ 5% QS 2% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 49% CPQ 36% LIB 7% CAQ 5% QS 2% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 48% CPQ 35% LIB 7% CAQ 6% QS 2% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 52% CPQ 34% LIB 6% CAQ 5% QS 2% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 48% CPQ 34% CAQ 9% LIB 6% QS 2% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 45% CPQ 36% CAQ 7% LIB 7% QS 4% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 44% CPQ 35% LIB 8% CAQ 7% QS 4% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 44% CPQ 36% LIB 8% CAQ 7% QS 4% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 44% CPQ 34% LIB 11% CAQ 7% QS 4% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Arthabaska-L’Érable

LIB <1% PQ 95% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ 5% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 45% CPQ 31% CAQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 50% PQ 33% CPQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 50% PQ 33% CPQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 58% CPQ 27% CAQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 51% CPQ 49% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 51% CPQ 49% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 94% CPQ 6% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 92% CPQ 8% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 92% CPQ 8% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 88% CPQ 12% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 95% CPQ 5% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader
78% 22% 48% ± 6% 52% ± 6% Projection of support for sovereignty | Arthabaska-L’Érable YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


Flag of Quebec

Demographic data | Arthabaska-L’Érable

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 97.9% French 1.0% Spanish 0.5% English 0.2% Arabic 0.0% Vietnamese 0.0% Swahili 0.0% PortugueseArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 16.5% No diploma 18.3% High school 26.8% Trade 20.1% College / Cégep 2.7% Some university 11.0% Bachelor's 4.7% PostgraduateArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 96.8% Not visible minority 3.2% Visible minority 1.4% Latin American 0.7% Black 0.5% Arab 0.2% Chinese 0.2% Southeast Asian 0.1% MultipleArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 71.1% Catholic 20.7% No Religion 5.7% Christian (n.o.s.) 0.7% Muslim 0.6% Jehovah's Witness 0.3% Other Christian 0.2% Baptist 0.2% PentecostalArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 65.7% Owner 34.3% RenterArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 60.2% Employed 37.0% Not in labour force 2.7% UnemployedArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.7% Non-Indigenous 1.3% Indigenous identity 0.8% First Nations 0.5% Metis 0.1% OthersArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 90.5% Car / truck / van 5.9% Walking 2.0% Other 1.2% Bicycle 0.4% Public transitArthabaska-L’ÉrableSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.