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Recent electoral history | Arthabaska-L’Érable


2014* 2018* 2022* 2026* Projection CPQ 43% ± 6% 1.4% 2.3% 24.2% 40.5% PQ 34% ± 6% 6.9% 9.5% 10.0% 32.7% CAQ 9% ± 3% 50.9% 61.6% 52.2% 13.3% LIB 8% ± 3% 37.2% 11.4% 3.8% 7.5% QS 5% ± 2% 2.9% 12.7% 9.2% 5.0%
Latest update: October 20, 2026
Note: The * symbol indicates that the results have been transposed onto the new electoral map (2026). The transpositions were carried out by the excellent Kyle Hutton.

Candidates 2026 | Arthabaska-L’Érable

PartiesCandidates
CPQ Tarek Henoud
PQ Alex Boissonneault*
CAQ Kevin Brasseur
LIB Thomas Guérette
QS Stéphanie Poirier
The list of candidates will be updated regularly until the nomination deadline. Found an error or omission? Please email candidats@qc125.com. For the complete list of candidates, visit Élections Québec. The nomination period ends on September 17, 2026.

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338Canada Arthabaska-L’Érable projection

Latest update: October 20, 2026

Arthabaska-L’Érable 37% 49% 43% ± 6% ▲ CPQ 29% 40% 34% ± 6% ▲ PQ 6% 12% 9% ± 3% ▼ CAQ 5% 11% 8% ± 3% LIB 3% 7% 5% ± 2% QS CPQ 2022 40.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 20, 2026
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Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Arthabaska-L’Érable 96%▼ CPQ 4%▲ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | October 20, 2026
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Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

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338Canada Quebec Projection | Arthabaska-L’Érable

Odds of winning | Arthabaska-L’Érable


>99% <1% 43% ± 6% 57% ± 6% ▼ ▲ Projection of support for sovereignty | Arthabaska-L’Érable YES NO 338Canada October 20, 2026