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Quebec

Arthabaska


MNA: Éric Lefebvre

Latest projection: October 4, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Arthabaska 30% ± 6%▼ CAQ 29% ± 6%▲ PQ 24% ± 7%▲ CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS 5% ± 2% LIB CAQ 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Arthabaska 52%▼ CAQ 43%▲ PQ 4%▲ CPQ Odds of winning | October 4, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Arthabaska

LIB 5% ± 2% PQ 29% ± 6% CAQ 30% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 24% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Arthabaska 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 4, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 64% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 64% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 62% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 62% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 62% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 62% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 5% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 61% CPQ 16% QS 10% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 60% CPQ 18% QS 9% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 60% CPQ 18% QS 9% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 60% CPQ 19% QS 9% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 60% CPQ 19% QS 9% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 60% CPQ 19% QS 9% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 60% CPQ 19% QS 9% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 58% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 59% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 59% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 59% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 59% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 5% LIB 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 57% CPQ 18% QS 10% PQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 56% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 57% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 57% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 57% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 59% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 6% LIB 4% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 59% CPQ 18% QS 10% PQ 6% LIB 4% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 57% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 58% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 58% CPQ 18% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% CPQ 25% PQ 10% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 52% CPQ 22% PQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 52% CPQ 22% PQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 53% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 53% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% PQ 19% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 20% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 20% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% CPQ 18% PQ 17% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 46% CPQ 22% PQ 16% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 22% PQ 16% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 38% PQ 25% CPQ 21% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 27% CPQ 20% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 34% PQ 29% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 31% PQ 27% CPQ 23% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 22% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 34% PQ 26% CPQ 22% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 22% QS 12% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 32% PQ 29% CPQ 22% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 22% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 33% PQ 29% CPQ 21% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 32% PQ 29% CPQ 21% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 32% PQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% PQ 29% CPQ 24% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-10-04

Odds of winning | Arthabaska

LIB <1% PQ 43% CAQ 52% QS <1% CPQ 4% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 4, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 96% PQ 4% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 86% PQ 14% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 76% PQ 22% CPQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 82% PQ 17% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 94% PQ 5% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 77% PQ 22% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 78% PQ 22% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 78% PQ 21% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 82% PQ 18% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 72% PQ 28% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 52% PQ 43% CPQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04

Recent electoral history | Arthabaska



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 45.5% 61.8% 51.7% 30% ± 6% CPQ 1.1% 2.3% 24.7% 24% ± 7% PQ 17.1% 9.4% 10.0% 29% ± 6% QS 5.2% 12.6% 9.2% 9% ± 3% LIB 30.2% 11.4% 3.8% 5% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.