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Quebec

Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue


MNA: Daniel Bernard

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Leaning PQ gain
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 33% ± 7%▼ PQ 26% ± 7% QS 26% ± 6%▲ CAQ 7% ± 3% CPQ 6% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 86%▼ PQ 9%▲ QS 6%▲ CAQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 33% ± 7% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 26% ± 7% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 37% QS 33% PQ 11% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 37% QS 32% PQ 11% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 36% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 36% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 36% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 36% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 35% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 35% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 35% QS 32% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 35% QS 31% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 35% QS 31% CPQ 12% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 35% QS 31% CPQ 12% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 35% QS 31% CPQ 12% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 35% QS 30% CPQ 15% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 35% QS 30% CPQ 15% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 35% QS 30% CPQ 15% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 39% QS 29% CPQ 11% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 39% QS 29% CPQ 11% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 39% QS 29% CPQ 11% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 37% QS 33% PQ 11% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 37% QS 32% PQ 10% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 37% QS 32% PQ 10% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 38% QS 32% CPQ 10% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 38% QS 32% CPQ 10% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 36% QS 31% PQ 13% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 36% QS 31% PQ 13% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 36% QS 31% PQ 13% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 13% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 13% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 39% QS 31% PQ 12% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 39% QS 31% PQ 12% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 14% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 14% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 14% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 14% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 14% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 37% QS 32% PQ 15% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% QS 31% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% QS 30% PQ 13% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% QS 30% PQ 13% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 43% QS 34% PQ 14% CPQ 5% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 42% QS 34% PQ 14% CPQ 5% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 39% QS 33% PQ 19% CPQ 5% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 39% QS 33% PQ 20% CPQ 4% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 39% QS 33% PQ 20% CPQ 4% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 42% QS 32% PQ 17% CPQ 4% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 39% QS 32% PQ 17% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 39% QS 32% PQ 17% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 31% QS 30% PQ 27% CPQ 6% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 32% CAQ 28% PQ 28% CPQ 6% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 33% PQ 29% CAQ 27% CPQ 6% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 34% PQ 30% CAQ 23% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 32% PQ 31% CAQ 25% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 32% PQ 29% CAQ 26% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 33% PQ 31% CAQ 24% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% QS 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 29% CAQ 28% QS 26% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 30% CAQ 29% QS 27% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 30% CAQ 28% QS 28% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 29% QS 29% CAQ 28% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 31% CAQ 27% QS 26% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% QS 26% CAQ 25% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% QS 26% CAQ 24% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% QS 26% CAQ 26% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue

LIB <1% PQ 86% CAQ 6% QS 9% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 75% QS 25% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 74% QS 26% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 72% QS 28% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 72% QS 28% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 72% QS 28% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 73% QS 27% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 70% QS 30% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 70% QS 30% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 71% QS 29% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 72% QS 28% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 72% QS 28% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 73% QS 27% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 74% QS 26% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 75% QS 25% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 75% QS 25% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 76% QS 24% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 92% QS 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 93% QS 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 94% QS 6% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 73% QS 27% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 76% QS 24% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 78% QS 22% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 79% QS 21% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 81% QS 19% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 77% QS 23% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 78% QS 22% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 79% QS 21% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 81% QS 19% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 82% QS 18% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 86% QS 14% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 88% QS 12% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 78% QS 22% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 82% QS 18% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 82% QS 18% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 82% QS 18% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 82% QS 18% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 76% QS 24% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 98% QS 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 98% QS 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 90% QS 10% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 88% QS 12% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 81% QS 19% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 84% QS 16% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 84% QS 16% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 94% QS 6% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 87% QS 13% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 87% QS 13% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 46% QS 44% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 68% CAQ 17% PQ 15% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 68% PQ 25% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 74% PQ 25% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 54% PQ 44% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 68% PQ 26% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 63% PQ 36% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 57% QS 23% CAQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 52% CAQ 32% QS 17% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 49% CAQ 34% QS 17% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 54% QS 24% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% QS 35% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 66% CAQ 19% QS 15% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 90% QS 7% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 94% QS 5% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 86% QS 9% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 17.3% 30.3% 45.2% 26% ± 6% QS 11.6% 32.1% 30.9% 26% ± 7% PQ 32.2% 18.3% 11.2% 33% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 0.9% 7.7% 7% ± 3% LIB 38.0% 16.4% 4.4% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.