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Quebec

Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue


MNA: Daniel Bernard (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely PQ

Recent electoral history | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 32% ± 7% 32.2% 18.3% 11.2% QS 22% ± 6% 11.6% 32.1% 30.9% CAQ 21% ± 6% 17.3% 30.3% 45.2% LIB 14% ± 5% 38.0% 16.4% 4.4% CPQ 8% ± 3% 0.0% 0.9% 7.7%




338Canada projection for Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue


Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 32% ± 7%▼ PQ 22% ± 6%▼ QS 21% ± 6%▼ CAQ 14% ± 5%▲ LIB 8% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 97% PQ 2% QS 1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue

LIB 14% ± 5% PQ 32% ± 7% CAQ 21% ± 6% QS 22% ± 6% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 32% PQ 31% CAQ 25% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 32% PQ 29% CAQ 26% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 33% PQ 31% CAQ 24% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 31% QS 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 29% CAQ 28% QS 26% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 30% CAQ 29% QS 27% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 30% CAQ 28% QS 28% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 29% QS 29% CAQ 28% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 31% CAQ 27% QS 26% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% QS 26% CAQ 25% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% QS 26% CAQ 24% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% QS 26% CAQ 26% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 33% CAQ 26% QS 24% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 33% CAQ 26% QS 22% LIB 9% CPQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 32% CAQ 27% QS 23% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CAQ 27% QS 23% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 35% CAQ 24% QS 23% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 33% QS 23% CAQ 22% LIB 12% CPQ 8% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 32% QS 22% CAQ 21% LIB 14% CPQ 8% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ 1% QS 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 54% PQ 44% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 68% PQ 26% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 63% PQ 36% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 57% QS 23% CAQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 52% CAQ 32% QS 17% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 49% CAQ 34% QS 17% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 54% QS 24% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% QS 35% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 66% CAQ 19% QS 15% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 90% QS 7% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 94% QS 5% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 86% QS 9% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 88% CAQ 9% QS 3% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 84% CAQ 15% QS 2% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 84% CAQ 15% QS 2% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS 1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 97% QS 2% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 97% QS 2% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader