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Quebec

Chauveau


MNA: Sylvain Lévesque

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
Chauveau 29% ± 7% CPQ 28% ± 6%▼ CAQ 27% ± 6%▲ PQ 10% ± 3% QS 4% ± 2% LIB CAQ 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chauveau 45% CPQ 33%▼ CAQ 22%▲ PQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chauveau

LIB 4% ± 2% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 28% ± 6% QS 10% ± 3% CPQ 29% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chauveau 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 38% CPQ 35% LIB 11% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 38% CPQ 36% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 37% CPQ 37% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CPQ 38% CAQ 38% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CPQ 38% CAQ 38% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CPQ 38% CAQ 38% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CPQ 39% CAQ 38% LIB 9% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CPQ 38% CAQ 38% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CPQ 38% CAQ 38% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 38% CPQ 38% LIB 9% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 40% CPQ 37% QS 8% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 40% CPQ 37% QS 8% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 40% CPQ 38% LIB 8% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CPQ 40% CAQ 40% LIB 7% QS 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CPQ 40% CAQ 40% LIB 7% QS 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CPQ 41% CAQ 39% LIB 7% QS 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 40% CPQ 40% LIB 7% QS 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 41% CPQ 39% LIB 7% QS 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 41% CPQ 39% LIB 7% QS 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 39% CPQ 38% QS 9% LIB 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 40% CPQ 38% QS 9% LIB 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 40% CPQ 39% QS 9% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 40% CPQ 38% QS 9% LIB 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 40% CPQ 39% QS 9% LIB 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 39% CPQ 38% QS 8% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 40% CPQ 38% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 40% CPQ 38% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 40% CPQ 38% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 43% CPQ 37% PQ 8% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 44% CPQ 37% PQ 7% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 43% CPQ 37% PQ 7% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 42% CPQ 36% PQ 9% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 43% CPQ 36% PQ 9% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 43% CPQ 36% PQ 9% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 43% CPQ 36% PQ 9% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 43% CPQ 36% PQ 9% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 43% CPQ 36% PQ 9% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% PQ 9% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% PQ 9% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 26% PQ 10% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% CPQ 26% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% CPQ 32% PQ 18% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 35% CPQ 28% PQ 22% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 35% CPQ 28% PQ 22% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 33% CPQ 33% PQ 19% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 33% CPQ 33% PQ 19% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 34% CPQ 32% PQ 19% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 23% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 33% CAQ 27% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 30% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 29% CAQ 27% PQ 25% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 34% CAQ 28% PQ 21% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 28% PQ 27% CAQ 27% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% CPQ 28% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% CPQ 29% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 29% CPQ 29% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Chauveau

LIB <1% PQ 22% CAQ 33% QS <1% CPQ 45% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 68% CPQ 32% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 61% CPQ 39% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 50% CPQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CPQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CPQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CPQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CPQ 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CPQ 53% CAQ 47% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CPQ 53% CAQ 47% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CPQ 50% CAQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 63% CPQ 37% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 63% CPQ 37% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 62% CPQ 38% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CPQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CPQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CPQ 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 51% CPQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 59% CPQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 61% CPQ 39% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 57% CPQ 43% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 62% CPQ 38% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 56% CPQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 59% CPQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 56% CPQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 62% CPQ 38% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 65% CPQ 35% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 79% CPQ 21% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 85% CPQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 79% CPQ 21% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 78% CPQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 84% CPQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 85% CPQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 83% CPQ 17% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 82% CPQ 18% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 84% CPQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 65% CPQ 35% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 89% CPQ 11% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 58% CPQ 42% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 75% CAQ 24% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 82% CAQ 15% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 71% CAQ 16% PQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 61% CAQ 27% PQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 84% CAQ 16% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 45% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 50% CAQ 31% PQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 73% CPQ 26% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 63% CPQ 36% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 54% CPQ 44% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 49% CPQ 44% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 49% CPQ 45% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 45% CAQ 33% PQ 22% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Chauveau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 52.5% 47.1% 46.8% 28% ± 6% CPQ 1.0% 8.6% 31.8% 29% ± 7% QS 3.7% 10.3% 8.8% 10% ± 3% PQ 12.2% 9.2% 7.6% 27% ± 6% LIB 29.9% 22.5% 3.8% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.