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Quebec

Chauveau


MNA: Sylvain Lévesque (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
PCQ likely

Chauveau 36% ± 7%▼ CPQ 26% ± 6%▲ PQ 23% ± 5%▼ CAQ 7% ± 3%▲ QS 6% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chauveau 97%▼ CPQ 3%▲ PQ <1%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Chauveau

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 26% ± 6% CAQ 23% ± 5% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chauveau 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 29% CAQ 27% PQ 25% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 34% CAQ 28% PQ 21% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 28% PQ 27% CAQ 27% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% CPQ 28% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% CPQ 29% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 29% CPQ 29% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 29% PQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 34% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 7% LIB 6% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 39% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 6% LIB 6% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 38% CAQ 25% PQ 23% QS 6% LIB 6% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 38% CAQ 25% PQ 23% QS 6% LIB 6% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 36% PQ 26% CAQ 23% QS 7% LIB 6% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Chauveau

LIB <1% PQ 3% CAQ <1% CPQ 97% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 61% CAQ 27% PQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 84% CAQ 16% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 45% CAQ 28% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 50% CAQ 31% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 73% CPQ 26% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 63% CPQ 36% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 54% CPQ 44% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 49% CPQ 44% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 49% CPQ 45% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 45% CAQ 33% PQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 49% PQ 32% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 60% CAQ 26% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 91% CAQ 6% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Chauveau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 52.5% 47.1% 46.8% 23% ± 5% CPQ 1.0% 8.6% 31.8% 36% ± 7% QS 3.7% 10.3% 8.8% 7% ± 3% PQ 12.2% 9.2% 7.6% 26% ± 6% LIB 29.9% 22.5% 3.8% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%