logo
logo
Quebec

Chauveau


MNA: Sylvain Lévesque (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
PCQ likely gain
Chauveau 34% ± 7%▲ CPQ 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 25% ± 6%▼ PQ 7% ± 3%▼ QS 6% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chauveau 91%▲ CPQ 6%▼ CAQ 2%▼ PQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chauveau

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chauveau 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% PQ 9% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% PQ 9% QS 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 26% PQ 10% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% CPQ 26% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% CPQ 32% PQ 18% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 35% CPQ 28% PQ 22% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 35% CPQ 28% PQ 22% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 33% CPQ 33% PQ 19% QS 10% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 33% CPQ 33% PQ 19% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 34% CPQ 32% PQ 19% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 23% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 33% CAQ 27% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 30% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 29% CAQ 27% PQ 25% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 34% CAQ 28% PQ 21% QS 12% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 28% PQ 27% CAQ 27% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% CPQ 28% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% CPQ 29% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 24% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 29% CPQ 29% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% CPQ 29% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 29% CAQ 28% PQ 27% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 29% PQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 34% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 7% LIB 6% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Chauveau

LIB <1% PQ 2% CAQ 6% CPQ 91% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 65% CPQ 35% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 89% CPQ 11% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 58% CPQ 42% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 75% CAQ 24% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 82% CAQ 15% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 71% CAQ 16% PQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 61% CAQ 27% PQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 84% CAQ 16% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 45% CAQ 28% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 50% CAQ 31% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 73% CPQ 26% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 63% CPQ 36% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 54% CPQ 44% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 49% CPQ 44% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 49% CPQ 45% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 45% CAQ 33% PQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 49% PQ 32% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 60% CAQ 26% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 91% CAQ 6% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Chauveau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 52.5% 47.1% 46.8% 26% ± 6% CPQ 1.0% 8.6% 31.8% 34% ± 7% QS 3.7% 10.3% 8.8% 7% ± 3% PQ 12.2% 9.2% 7.6% 25% ± 6% LIB 29.9% 22.5% 3.8% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%