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Quebec

Saint-Jérôme


MNA: Youri Chassin (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Saint-Jérôme 43% ± 7%▲ PQ 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 14% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 6% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Jérôme >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint-Jérôme

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 43% ± 7% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 14% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Jérôme 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 53% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 53% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 14% LIB 4% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 51% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 51% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 51% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 51% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 51% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 51% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 51% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 50% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 50% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 50% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 50% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 50% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 50% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 50% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 50% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 50% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 50% CPQ 19% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 4% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% PQ 14% QS 14% LIB 4% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 14% LIB 4% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 14% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 47% CPQ 17% PQ 17% QS 13% LIB 4% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 46% PQ 19% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 3% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 46% PQ 19% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 3% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 46% PQ 19% CPQ 16% QS 14% LIB 3% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 46% PQ 18% CPQ 17% QS 14% LIB 3% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% PQ 17% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% PQ 17% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 46% PQ 21% CPQ 17% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 47% PQ 20% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 47% PQ 20% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 47% PQ 20% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 47% PQ 21% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 46% PQ 22% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 50% PQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% PQ 23% QS 17% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% PQ 23% QS 18% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 32% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 41% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 41% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 5% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% PQ 29% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 36% CAQ 32% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 40% CAQ 29% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 40% CAQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 41% CAQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 39% CAQ 29% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 27% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 43% CAQ 28% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 42% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 42% CAQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 43% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Saint-Jérôme

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Saint-Jérôme



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 31.5% 43.7% 50.0% 27% ± 6% PQ 36.8% 27.4% 18.8% 43% ± 7% QS 10.8% 15.9% 15.6% 14% ± 4% CPQ 0.4% 0.9% 9.7% 8% ± 3% LIB 20.0% 9.0% 4.5% 6% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.