logo
logo
Quebec

Saint-Jérôme


MNA: Youri Chassin (IND)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Saint-Jérôme 44% ± 7%▼ PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 12% ± 4%▼ QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 8% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Jérôme >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint-Jérôme

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 44% ± 7% CAQ 25% ± 6% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Jérôme 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 50% PQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% PQ 23% QS 17% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% PQ 23% QS 18% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 32% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 41% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 41% PQ 33% QS 16% CPQ 5% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% PQ 29% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 36% CAQ 32% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 40% CAQ 29% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 40% CAQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 41% CAQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 39% CAQ 29% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 27% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 43% CAQ 28% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 42% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 42% CAQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 43% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 42% CAQ 27% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 26% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 47% CAQ 24% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 48% CAQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 25% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 44% CAQ 25% QS 12% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Saint-Jérôme

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 93% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 91% PQ 9% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 91% PQ 9% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 81% CAQ 19% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Saint-Jérôme



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 31.5% 43.7% 50.0% 25% ± 6% PQ 36.8% 27.4% 18.8% 44% ± 7% QS 10.8% 15.9% 15.6% 12% ± 4% CPQ 0.4% 0.9% 9.7% 8% ± 3% LIB 20.0% 9.0% 4.5% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%