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Quebec

Jean-Lesage


MNA: Sol Zanetti (QS)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Jean-Lesage 36% ± 7% PQ 27% ± 7%▼ QS 18% ± 6%▲ CPQ 10% ± 4% CAQ 7% ± 3%▲ LIB QS 2022 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jean-Lesage 96%▲ PQ 4%▼ QS <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Lesage

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 36% ± 7% CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 27% ± 7% CPQ 18% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Lesage 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 37% CAQ 31% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 37% CAQ 31% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 40% CAQ 30% PQ 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 40% CAQ 30% PQ 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 39% CAQ 22% PQ 21% CPQ 12% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 39% PQ 29% CAQ 19% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 38% PQ 30% CAQ 20% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 34% PQ 30% CAQ 22% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 31% PQ 28% CAQ 20% CPQ 14% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 31% QS 29% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 30% QS 30% CAQ 20% CPQ 14% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 33% QS 32% CAQ 16% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 36% PQ 34% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 41% PQ 32% CPQ 11% CAQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 39% PQ 34% CPQ 12% CAQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 40% PQ 29% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 39% PQ 36% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 38% QS 34% CAQ 12% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 33% QS 33% CAQ 14% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 33% PQ 33% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 34% PQ 33% CAQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 36% QS 33% CPQ 14% CAQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 36% QS 27% CPQ 18% CAQ 10% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Jean-Lesage

LIB <1% PQ 96% CAQ <1% QS 4% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 95% CAQ 5% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 80% CAQ 20% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 80% CAQ 20% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 94% CAQ 6% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 78% PQ 22% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 72% PQ 28% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 65% QS 34% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 51% QS 49% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 59% QS 41% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 63% PQ 37% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 77% PQ 23% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 70% PQ 30% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 73% QS 27% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 54% QS 46% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 50% PQ 50% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 55% PQ 45% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 60% QS 40% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 61% QS 39% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 76% QS 24% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 83% QS 17% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 70% QS 30% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 96% QS 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Jean-Lesage



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 11.6% 34.7% 37.8% 27% ± 7% CAQ 23.8% 32.4% 31.3% 10% ± 4% CPQ 0.8% 1.8% 14.1% 18% ± 6% PQ 22.4% 9.3% 11.1% 36% ± 7% LIB 37.3% 17.9% 4.4% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%