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Quebec

Jean-Lesage


MNA: Sol Zanetti

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Leaning PQ gain
Jean-Lesage 37% ± 7%▲ PQ 33% ± 8% QS 13% ± 5% CPQ 11% ± 4%▼ CAQ 4% ± 2% LIB QS 2022 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jean-Lesage 76%▲ PQ 24%▼ QS <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Lesage

LIB 4% ± 2% PQ 37% ± 7% CAQ 11% ± 4% QS 33% ± 8% CPQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Lesage 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 QS 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 15% LIB 8% PQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 16% LIB 7% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 7% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 7% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 7% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 33% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS 33% CAQ 33% CPQ 17% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 33% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 33% QS 33% CPQ 17% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 16% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 15% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 34% QS 32% CPQ 16% PQ 8% LIB 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 17% PQ 8% LIB 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 17% PQ 8% LIB 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 18% PQ 8% LIB 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 18% PQ 8% LIB 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 34% QS 31% CPQ 18% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 34% QS 31% CPQ 18% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 17% PQ 8% LIB 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 7% LIB 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 17% PQ 7% LIB 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% LIB 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 17% LIB 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 33% CAQ 31% CPQ 16% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 17% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 17% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 17% PQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 17% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 34% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 33% CAQ 33% CPQ 16% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS 33% CAQ 33% CPQ 15% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 37% CAQ 31% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 37% CAQ 31% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 40% CAQ 30% PQ 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 40% CAQ 30% PQ 14% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 39% CAQ 22% PQ 21% CPQ 12% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 39% PQ 29% CAQ 19% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 38% PQ 30% CAQ 20% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 34% PQ 30% CAQ 22% CPQ 8% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 31% PQ 28% CAQ 20% CPQ 14% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 31% QS 29% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 30% QS 30% CAQ 20% CPQ 14% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 33% QS 32% CAQ 16% CPQ 13% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 36% PQ 34% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 41% PQ 32% CPQ 11% CAQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 39% PQ 34% CPQ 12% CAQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 40% PQ 29% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 39% PQ 36% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 38% QS 34% CAQ 12% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 33% QS 33% CAQ 14% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 33% PQ 33% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 34% PQ 33% CAQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Jean-Lesage

LIB <1% PQ 76% CAQ <1% QS 24% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 QS 53% CAQ 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 55% QS 45% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 53% QS 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 53% QS 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 53% QS 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 54% QS 46% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS 50% CAQ 50% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS 51% CAQ 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 50% QS 50% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 51% QS 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 57% QS 43% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 57% QS 43% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 61% QS 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 62% QS 38% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 62% QS 38% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 64% QS 36% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 64% QS 36% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 66% QS 34% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 69% QS 31% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 67% CAQ 33% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 63% CAQ 37% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 61% CAQ 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 59% CAQ 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS 57% CAQ 43% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 62% CAQ 38% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 62% CAQ 38% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 61% CAQ 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 61% CAQ 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 59% CAQ 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 51% QS 49% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 55% QS 45% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 62% CAQ 38% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 56% CAQ 44% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 55% CAQ 45% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 56% CAQ 44% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 55% CAQ 45% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS 50% CAQ 50% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 95% CAQ 5% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 80% CAQ 20% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 80% CAQ 20% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 94% CAQ 6% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 78% PQ 22% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 72% PQ 28% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 65% QS 34% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 51% QS 49% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 59% QS 41% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 63% PQ 37% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 77% PQ 23% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 70% PQ 30% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 73% QS 27% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 54% QS 46% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 50% PQ 50% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 55% PQ 45% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 60% QS 40% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 61% QS 39% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 76% QS 24% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Jean-Lesage



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 11.6% 34.7% 37.8% 33% ± 8% CAQ 23.8% 32.4% 31.3% 11% ± 4% CPQ 0.8% 1.8% 14.1% 13% ± 5% PQ 22.4% 9.3% 11.1% 37% ± 7% LIB 37.3% 17.9% 4.4% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.