logo
Quebec


Jean-Lesage


MNA: Sol Zanetti (QS)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

QS leaning hold
Jean-Lesage 31% ± 7%▼ 28% ± 7%▼ 20% ± 6%▼ 14% ± 5%▲ 4% ± 2%▲ QS 2022 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Jean-Lesage 72%▼ 28%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Lesage

PQ 28% ± 7% CAQ 20% ± 6% QS 31% ± 7% QCP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Lesage 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Jean-Lesage

LIB <1% PQ 28% CAQ <1% QS 72% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Jean-Lesage



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 11.6% 34.7% 37.8% 31% ± 7% CAQ 23.8% 32.4% 31.3% 20% ± 6% QCP 0.8% 1.8% 14.1% 14% ± 5% PQ 22.4% 9.3% 11.1% 28% ± 7% LIB 37.3% 17.9% 4.4% 4% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%