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Quebec

Jean-Lesage


MNA: Sol Zanetti (QS)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Jean-Lesage 35% ± 7% PQ 25% ± 7% QS 21% ± 6% CPQ 10% ± 4% CAQ 7% ± 3% LIB QS 2022 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jean-Lesage 97% PQ 3%▲ QS <1% CPQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Lesage

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 35% ± 7% CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 25% ± 7% CPQ 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Lesage 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 39% PQ 34% CPQ 12% CAQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 40% PQ 29% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 39% PQ 36% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 38% QS 34% CAQ 12% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 33% QS 33% CAQ 14% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 33% PQ 33% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 34% PQ 33% CAQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 35% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% QS 33% CPQ 13% CAQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 36% QS 33% CPQ 14% CAQ 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 36% QS 27% CPQ 18% CAQ 10% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 35% QS 23% CPQ 22% CAQ 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 35% QS 25% CPQ 21% CAQ 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 35% QS 25% CPQ 21% CAQ 10% LIB 7% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Jean-Lesage

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ <1% QS 3% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 77% PQ 23% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 96% PQ 4% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 70% PQ 30% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 73% QS 27% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 54% QS 46% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 50% PQ 50% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 55% PQ 45% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 60% QS 40% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 61% QS 39% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 76% QS 24% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 83% QS 17% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 70% QS 30% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 96% QS 4% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 99% QS 1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 97% QS 2% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 97% QS 3% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Jean-Lesage



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 11.6% 34.7% 37.8% 25% ± 7% CAQ 23.8% 32.4% 31.3% 10% ± 4% CPQ 0.8% 1.8% 14.1% 21% ± 6% PQ 22.4% 9.3% 11.1% 35% ± 7% LIB 37.3% 17.9% 4.4% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%