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Quebec

Taschereau


MNA: Étienne Grandmont (QS)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Likely PQ

Taschereau 42% ± 7%▲ PQ 28% ± 7%▲ QS 10% ± 4%▼ CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ CAQ 9% ± 4% LIB QS 2022 39.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Taschereau >99%▲ PQ <1%▼ QS <1% CPQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Taschereau

LIB 9% ± 4% PQ 42% ± 7% CAQ 9% ± 3% QS 28% ± 7% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Taschereau 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 42% PQ 40% CAQ 7% LIB 5% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 45% PQ 35% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 42% QS 41% CAQ 8% LIB 5% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 44% QS 39% CAQ 8% LIB 6% CPQ 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 40% QS 35% CAQ 9% CPQ 7% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 40% QS 35% CAQ 9% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 40% QS 36% CAQ 8% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 40% QS 35% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 40% QS 34% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 41% QS 34% CPQ 9% CAQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 41% QS 34% CPQ 9% CAQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 40% QS 34% CPQ 9% CAQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 41% QS 28% CPQ 11% CAQ 9% LIB 9% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 41% QS 26% CPQ 13% CAQ 10% LIB 9% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 40% QS 27% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% LIB 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 40% QS 27% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% LIB 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 42% QS 28% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% LIB 9% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Taschereau

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 64% PQ 36% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 93% PQ 7% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 56% QS 44% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 79% QS 21% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 80% QS 20% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 79% QS 21% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 75% QS 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 79% QS 21% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 81% QS 19% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 88% QS 12% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 90% QS 10% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 83% QS 17% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 99% QS 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% QS 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 99% QS 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Taschereau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 15.3% 42.5% 39.5% 28% ± 7% PQ 31.7% 17.6% 22.6% 42% ± 7% CAQ 16.3% 18.9% 21.9% 9% ± 3% CPQ 0.6% 0.0% 8.8% 10% ± 4% LIB 30.4% 17.6% 5.9% 9% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%