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Quebec


Saint-François


MNA: Geneviève Hébert (CAQ)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

Likely CAQ hold
Saint-François 38% ± 7%▼ 28% ± 7%▼ 13% ± 4%▼ 11% ± 4%▲ 8% ± 3%▲ CAQ 2022 42.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saint-François 97%▼ 3%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint-François

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 13% ± 4% CAQ 38% ± 7% QS 28% ± 7% QCP 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint-François 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Saint-François

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ 97% QS 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Saint-François



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 17.1% 34.7% 42.4% 38% ± 7% QS 8.1% 22.7% 28.2% 28% ± 7% QCP 0.5% 0.0% 11.0% 11% ± 4% PQ 32.9% 16.2% 9.1% 13% ± 4% LIB 38.5% 23.3% 7.9% 8% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%