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Quebec

Saint-François


MNA: Geneviève Hébert (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS
Saint-François 25% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 5%▼ PQ 23% ± 6%▲ QS 17% ± 5%▼ LIB 9% ± 4% CPQ CAQ 2022 42.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-François 51%▼ CAQ 33%▼ PQ 16%▲ QS <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint-François

LIB 17% ± 5% PQ 24% ± 5% CAQ 25% ± 6% QS 23% ± 6% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint-François 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 38% QS 24% LIB 16% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 39% QS 24% LIB 15% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 38% QS 24% LIB 15% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 38% QS 24% LIB 15% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 38% QS 24% LIB 15% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 38% QS 23% LIB 15% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 37% QS 24% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB 16% CPQ 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 37% QS 21% LIB 16% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 37% QS 21% LIB 16% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 37% QS 21% CPQ 16% LIB 15% PQ 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 38% QS 20% CPQ 16% LIB 15% PQ 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 38% QS 20% CPQ 16% LIB 15% PQ 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 38% QS 20% CPQ 16% LIB 15% PQ 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 33% QS 33% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 34% QS 33% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 34% QS 32% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 34% QS 32% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 34% QS 32% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 32% QS 31% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 33% QS 31% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 35% QS 31% CPQ 14% PQ 10% LIB 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 35% QS 30% CPQ 14% PQ 11% LIB 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 33% QS 30% CPQ 14% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 34% QS 30% CPQ 14% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 34% QS 30% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 34% QS 30% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 34% QS 30% CPQ 13% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 34% QS 30% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 42% QS 28% CPQ 11% PQ 9% LIB 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 42% QS 28% PQ 11% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 42% QS 28% PQ 11% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 41% QS 32% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 41% QS 32% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 37% QS 31% PQ 16% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 38% QS 30% PQ 17% LIB 7% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 38% QS 30% PQ 17% LIB 7% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 40% QS 29% PQ 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 38% QS 28% PQ 13% CPQ 11% LIB 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 38% QS 28% PQ 13% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 30% QS 28% PQ 22% CPQ 9% LIB 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 30% CAQ 27% PQ 22% LIB 9% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 31% CAQ 26% PQ 24% LIB 9% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 32% PQ 24% CAQ 23% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 30% PQ 25% CAQ 25% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 30% CAQ 26% PQ 24% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 31% PQ 28% CAQ 23% LIB 9% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 27% CAQ 26% QS 23% LIB 15% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 26% CAQ 25% QS 21% LIB 18% CPQ 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 25% PQ 25% QS 21% LIB 18% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 23% LIB 17% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Saint-François

LIB <1% PQ 33% CAQ 51% QS 16% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 99% QS 1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 53% QS 47% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 57% QS 43% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 59% QS 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 61% QS 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 63% QS 37% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 59% QS 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 59% QS 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 61% QS 39% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 64% QS 36% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 65% QS 35% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 71% QS 29% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 83% QS 17% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 69% QS 31% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 74% QS 26% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 75% QS 25% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 75% QS 25% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 75% QS 25% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 74% QS 26% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 99% QS 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 94% QS 6% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 92% QS 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 89% QS 11% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 92% QS 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 92% QS 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 98% QS 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 97% QS 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 97% QS 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 62% QS 37% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 69% CAQ 29% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 78% CAQ 16% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 92% PQ 5% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 76% PQ 13% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 79% CAQ 16% PQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 71% PQ 28% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 54% CAQ 34% QS 12% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 59% CAQ 36% QS 5% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 52% PQ 40% QS 8% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 51% PQ 33% QS 16% LIB <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Saint-François



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 17.1% 34.7% 42.4% 25% ± 6% QS 8.1% 22.7% 28.2% 23% ± 6% CPQ 0.5% 0.0% 11.0% 9% ± 4% PQ 32.9% 16.2% 9.1% 24% ± 5% LIB 38.5% 23.3% 7.9% 17% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.