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Quebec

Matane-Matapédia


MNA: Pascal Bérubé (PQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ hold
Matane-Matapédia 76% ± 6%▼ PQ 7% ± 3%▲ CPQ 7% ± 3% CAQ 5% ± 3%▲ LIB 4% ± 2% QS 2% ± 2% IND PQ 2022 67.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Matane-Matapédia >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Matane-Matapédia

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 76% ± 6% CAQ 7% ± 3% QS 4% ± 2% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Matane-Matapédia 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 PQ 67% CAQ 17% CPQ 8% QS 5% LIB 2% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 71% CAQ 16% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 2% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 71% CAQ 16% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 2% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 70% CAQ 18% CPQ 5% QS 5% LIB 2% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 70% CAQ 18% CPQ 5% QS 5% LIB 2% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 77% CAQ 13% QS 4% CPQ 4% LIB 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 77% CAQ 13% QS 4% CPQ 3% LIB 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 77% CAQ 13% QS 4% CPQ 3% LIB 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 72% CAQ 16% QS 4% CPQ 4% LIB 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 69% CAQ 15% CPQ 7% QS 4% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 69% CAQ 15% CPQ 7% QS 4% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 72% CAQ 13% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 73% CAQ 12% CPQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 76% CAQ 10% CPQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 76% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 76% CAQ 9% CPQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 74% CAQ 10% CPQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 76% CAQ 9% CPQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 77% CAQ 9% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 75% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 76% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 76% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 75% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 76% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 79% CAQ 6% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 79% CAQ 6% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 78% CAQ 7% CPQ 6% QS 4% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 76% CPQ 7% CAQ 7% LIB 5% QS 4% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Matane-Matapédia

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Matane-Matapédia



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 61.2% 69.4% 67.4% 76% ± 6% CAQ 10.2% 11.4% 17.4% 7% ± 3% CPQ 0.0% 0.5% 7.8% 7% ± 3% QS 5.1% 5.7% 4.9% 4% ± 2% LIB 22.8% 11.3% 2.1% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%