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Quebec

Gatineau


MNA: Robert Bussière (CAQ)

Latest projection: May 19, 2024
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
Gatineau 26% ± 7% LIB 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 24% ± 6%▼ PQ 11% ± 4%▼ QS 9% ± 4% QCP 3% ± 2%▲ OTH CAQ 2022 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gatineau 49%▲ LIB 36%▼ CAQ 15%▼ PQ Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LIB 26% ± 7% PQ 24% ± 6% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% QCP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LIB 49% PQ 15% CAQ 36% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Gatineau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 14.0% 41.8% 46.7% 26% ± 6% LIB 61.6% 30.6% 19.6% 26% ± 7% QS 6.1% 12.9% 12.1% 11% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 2.0% 10.8% 9% ± 4% PQ 17.5% 9.0% 9.7% 24% ± 6% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.