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Quebec

Gatineau


MNA: Robert Bussière (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ

Gatineau 27% ± 7%▲ LIB 26% ± 6%▲ PQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4%▼ CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gatineau 52%▲ LIB 38%▲ PQ 10%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LIB 27% ± 7% PQ 26% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 28% LIB 24% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 26% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 25% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 26% CAQ 26% PQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 27% LIB 27% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 26% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 26% PQ 25% CAQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 27% PQ 26% CAQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 11% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 27% CAQ 25% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 27% CAQ 26% PQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 27% PQ 26% CAQ 24% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LIB 52% PQ 38% CAQ 10% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 55% PQ 28% LIB 17% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 70% LIB 18% PQ 11% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 46% PQ 30% LIB 24% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 42% LIB 40% PQ 18% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 49% CAQ 36% PQ 15% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 49% LIB 44% PQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 50% LIB 45% PQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 56% LIB 40% PQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 46% LIB 46% PQ 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 53% PQ 27% CAQ 19% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 53% PQ 39% CAQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 43% CAQ 34% PQ 23% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 51% CAQ 34% PQ 15% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 63% CAQ 21% PQ 16% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 50% CAQ 40% PQ 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 50% LIB 36% PQ 13% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 52% PQ 38% CAQ 10% 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Gatineau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 14.0% 41.8% 46.7% 24% ± 6% LIB 61.6% 30.6% 19.6% 27% ± 7% QS 6.1% 12.9% 12.1% 10% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 2.0% 10.8% 10% ± 4% PQ 17.5% 9.0% 9.7% 26% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%