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Quebec

Gatineau


MNA: Robert Bussière (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Gatineau


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 37% ± 7% 61.6% 30.6% 19.6% PQ 22% ± 6% 17.5% 9.0% 9.7% CAQ 19% ± 5% 14.0% 41.8% 46.7% CPQ 10% ± 4% 0.0% 2.0% 10.8% QS 9% ± 3% 6.1% 12.9% 12.1%




338Canada projection for Gatineau


Gatineau 37% ± 7%▲ LIB 22% ± 6%▼ PQ 19% ± 5%▼ CAQ 10% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gatineau >99%▲ LIB <1%▼ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LIB 37% ± 7% PQ 22% ± 6% CAQ 19% ± 5% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 28% LIB 24% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 26% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 25% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 26% CAQ 26% PQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 27% LIB 27% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 26% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 26% PQ 25% CAQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 27% PQ 26% CAQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 11% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 27% CAQ 25% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 27% CAQ 26% PQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 27% PQ 26% CAQ 24% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 34% PQ 23% CAQ 20% CPQ 10% QS 10% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 37% PQ 22% CAQ 19% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 55% PQ 28% LIB 17% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 70% LIB 18% PQ 11% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 46% PQ 30% LIB 24% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 42% LIB 40% PQ 18% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 49% CAQ 36% PQ 15% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 49% LIB 44% PQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 50% LIB 45% PQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 56% LIB 40% PQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 46% LIB 46% PQ 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 53% PQ 27% CAQ 19% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 53% PQ 39% CAQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 43% CAQ 34% PQ 23% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 51% CAQ 34% PQ 15% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 63% CAQ 21% PQ 16% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 50% CAQ 40% PQ 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 50% LIB 36% PQ 13% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 52% PQ 38% CAQ 10% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader