logo
logo
Quebec

Gatineau


MNA: Robert Bussière

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
Gatineau 26% ± 7%▼ LIB 25% ± 6%▲ CAQ 24% ± 6%▼ PQ 12% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gatineau 43%▼ LIB 34%▲ CAQ 23%▼ PQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LIB 26% ± 7% PQ 24% ± 6% CAQ 25% ± 6% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 47% LIB 25% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 48% LIB 23% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 46% LIB 23% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 46% LIB 23% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 46% LIB 23% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 46% LIB 23% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 46% LIB 24% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 46% LIB 24% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 46% LIB 24% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 45% LIB 24% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 45% LIB 24% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 45% LIB 24% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 45% LIB 24% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% LIB 24% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% LIB 23% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% LIB 23% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 45% LIB 23% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 45% LIB 23% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 45% LIB 23% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 43% LIB 23% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 44% LIB 23% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 42% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 43% LIB 20% CPQ 15% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 43% LIB 20% CPQ 15% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 43% LIB 21% CPQ 15% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 43% LIB 21% CPQ 15% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 45% LIB 21% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 45% LIB 21% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 43% LIB 21% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 44% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 44% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 44% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 44% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 44% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% LIB 20% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% LIB 20% QS 12% PQ 11% CPQ 10% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% LIB 20% QS 12% PQ 11% CPQ 10% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% LIB 19% QS 14% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% LIB 19% QS 14% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 42% LIB 20% PQ 18% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 43% LIB 19% PQ 18% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 43% LIB 19% PQ 18% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% LIB 17% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% LIB 20% PQ 15% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% LIB 20% PQ 15% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 33% PQ 22% LIB 21% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% PQ 23% LIB 23% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 29% PQ 25% LIB 22% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 25% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 28% LIB 24% PQ 23% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 26% PQ 25% LIB 24% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 25% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 26% CAQ 26% PQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 27% LIB 27% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 26% LIB 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 26% PQ 25% CAQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 27% PQ 26% CAQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LIB 43% PQ 23% CAQ 34% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 98% PQ 1% LIB 1% QS <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 89% PQ 6% LIB 5% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 76% PQ 21% LIB 3% QS <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 43% PQ 35% LIB 22% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 55% PQ 28% LIB 17% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 70% LIB 18% PQ 11% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 46% PQ 30% LIB 24% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 42% LIB 40% PQ 18% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 49% CAQ 36% PQ 15% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 49% LIB 44% PQ 7% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 50% LIB 45% PQ 5% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 56% LIB 40% PQ 4% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 46% LIB 46% PQ 8% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 53% PQ 27% CAQ 19% QS <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 53% PQ 39% CAQ 9% QS <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 43% CAQ 34% PQ 23% QS <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Gatineau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 14.0% 41.8% 46.7% 25% ± 6% LIB 61.6% 30.6% 19.6% 26% ± 7% QS 6.1% 12.9% 12.1% 12% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 2.0% 10.8% 10% ± 4% PQ 17.5% 9.0% 9.7% 24% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.