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Quebec


Gaspé


MNA: Stéphane Sainte-Croix (CAQ)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

Likely PQ gain
Gaspé 45% ± 9%▼ 34% ± 9%▼ 9% ± 4%▲ 5% ± 3%▲ 5% ± 3%▲ CAQ 2022 41.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Gaspé 94%▼ 6%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Gaspé

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 45% ± 9% CAQ 34% ± 9% QS 9% ± 4% QCP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Gaspé 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Gaspé

LIB <1% PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Gaspé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.2% 19.6% 41.4% 34% ± 9% PQ 52.0% 33.4% 37.5% 45% ± 9% QS 5.1% 13.8% 9.0% 9% ± 4% LIB 33.8% 33.2% 6.9% 5% ± 3% QCP 0.5% 0.0% 5.2% 5% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%