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Quebec

Gaspé


MNA: Stéphane Sainte-Croix (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Gaspé 57% ± 9%▼ PQ 20% ± 7% CAQ 10% ± 5%▲ LIB 6% ± 4%▼ QS 5% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 41.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspé >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Gaspé

LIB 10% ± 5% PQ 57% ± 9% CAQ 20% ± 7% QS 6% ± 4% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Gaspé 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 41% PQ 38% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 41% CAQ 39% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 41% CAQ 39% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 43% CAQ 37% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 43% CAQ 37% QS 10% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 53% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 6% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 55% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 5% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 55% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 5% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 48% CAQ 35% QS 8% LIB 4% CPQ 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 9% LIB 5% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 9% LIB 5% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 50% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 52% CAQ 27% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 54% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 55% CAQ 23% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 55% CAQ 24% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 53% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 56% CAQ 24% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 56% CAQ 24% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 55% CAQ 23% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55% CAQ 24% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 56% CAQ 23% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 55% CAQ 23% QS 8% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 56% CAQ 22% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 59% CAQ 20% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 60% CAQ 19% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 58% CAQ 20% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 57% CAQ 20% LIB 10% QS 6% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Gaspé

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 77% PQ 23% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 78% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 77% CAQ 23% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Gaspé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.2% 19.6% 41.4% 20% ± 7% PQ 52.0% 33.4% 37.5% 57% ± 9% QS 5.1% 13.8% 9.0% 6% ± 4% LIB 33.8% 33.2% 6.9% 10% ± 5% CPQ 0.5% 0.0% 5.2% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%