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Quebec

Gaspé


MNA: Stéphane Sainte-Croix (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Safe PQ

Gaspé 60% ± 8%▲ PQ 18% ± 6%▼ CAQ 10% ± 5% LIB 6% ± 4% QS 4% ± 3%▼ CPQ CAQ 2022 41.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspé >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Gaspé

LIB 10% ± 5% PQ 60% ± 8% CAQ 18% ± 6% QS 6% ± 4% CPQ 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Gaspé 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 55% CAQ 24% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 53% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 56% CAQ 24% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 56% CAQ 24% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 55% CAQ 23% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55% CAQ 24% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 56% CAQ 23% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 55% CAQ 23% QS 8% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 56% CAQ 22% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 59% CAQ 20% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 60% CAQ 19% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 58% CAQ 20% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 57% CAQ 20% LIB 10% QS 6% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 57% CAQ 20% LIB 10% QS 6% CPQ 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 56% CAQ 21% LIB 10% QS 6% CPQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 56% CAQ 21% LIB 10% QS 6% CPQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 60% CAQ 18% LIB 10% QS 6% CPQ 4% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Gaspé

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Gaspé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.2% 19.6% 41.4% 18% ± 6% PQ 52.0% 33.4% 37.5% 60% ± 8% QS 5.1% 13.8% 9.0% 6% ± 4% LIB 33.8% 33.2% 6.9% 10% ± 5% CPQ 0.5% 0.0% 5.2% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%