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Quebec

Gaspé


MNA: Stéphane Sainte-Croix

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Gaspé 59% ± 8%▲ PQ 20% ± 7%▼ CAQ 8% ± 4% LIB 7% ± 4% QS 4% ± 3%▼ CPQ CAQ 2022 41.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspé >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Gaspé

LIB 8% ± 4% PQ 59% ± 8% CAQ 20% ± 7% QS 7% ± 4% CPQ 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Gaspé 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 29% PQ 29% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 30% PQ 28% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 30% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 30% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 29% PQ 27% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 28% PQ 28% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 28% PQ 28% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 28% PQ 28% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 PQ 29% CAQ 29% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 29% PQ 28% LIB 18% CPQ 12% QS 11% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 29% PQ 28% LIB 18% CPQ 12% QS 11% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 29% PQ 28% LIB 18% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 32% PQ 27% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 33% PQ 27% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 33% PQ 26% LIB 15% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 33% PQ 28% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 34% PQ 27% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 34% PQ 27% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 34% PQ 26% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 34% PQ 26% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 32% PQ 30% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 32% PQ 30% LIB 13% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 33% PQ 30% LIB 13% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 33% PQ 30% LIB 13% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 33% PQ 30% LIB 13% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 35% PQ 29% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 35% PQ 29% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 33% PQ 31% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 33% PQ 31% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 34% PQ 31% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 34% PQ 31% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 34% PQ 31% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 34% PQ 31% LIB 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 41% PQ 38% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 41% CAQ 39% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 41% CAQ 39% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 43% CAQ 37% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 43% CAQ 37% QS 10% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 53% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 6% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 55% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 5% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 55% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 5% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 48% CAQ 35% QS 8% LIB 4% CPQ 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 9% LIB 5% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 9% LIB 5% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 50% CAQ 30% QS 8% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 52% CAQ 27% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 54% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 55% CAQ 23% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 55% CAQ 24% QS 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 53% CAQ 26% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 56% CAQ 24% QS 9% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 56% CAQ 24% QS 8% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 55% CAQ 23% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55% CAQ 24% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 56% CAQ 23% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 55% CAQ 23% QS 8% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 56% CAQ 22% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 59% CAQ 20% LIB 8% QS 7% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Gaspé

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 61% PQ 39% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 70% PQ 29% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 70% PQ 29% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 70% PQ 30% LIB 1% QS <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 67% PQ 32% LIB 1% QS <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 67% PQ 33% LIB 1% QS <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 61% PQ 38% LIB 1% QS <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 PQ 50% CAQ 50% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 55% PQ 44% LIB 1% QS <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 56% PQ 43% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 78% PQ 22% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 83% PQ 17% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 85% PQ 15% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 80% PQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 84% PQ 16% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 86% PQ 14% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 87% PQ 13% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 88% PQ 12% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 62% PQ 38% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 63% PQ 37% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 65% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 66% PQ 34% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 66% PQ 34% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 83% PQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 82% PQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 59% PQ 41% LIB <1% QS <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 64% PQ 36% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 65% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 65% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 65% PQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 66% PQ 34% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 77% PQ 23% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 PQ 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 PQ 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 PQ 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 PQ 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Gaspé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.2% 19.6% 41.4% 20% ± 7% PQ 52.0% 33.4% 37.5% 59% ± 8% QS 5.1% 13.8% 9.0% 7% ± 4% LIB 33.8% 33.2% 6.9% 8% ± 4% CPQ 0.5% 0.0% 5.2% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.