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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: January 14, 2026


Quebec sovereignty vote projection 55% 63% 59% ± 4% ▲ 27% 35% 31% ± 4% ▼ 7% 12% 10% ± 3% ▼ Quebec Sovereignty projection | December 3, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds 59% 10% 31% Before distribution 65% 35% Proportional distribution 64% 36% Half & half 66% 34% Two thirds to No camp 62% 38% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | December 3, 2025

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-07-01 Election 2026 No 65% ± 5% Yes 35% ± 5% December 3, 2025 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: December 3, 2025
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 60.5% ▼ 65% ± 5% ▼ Max. 70.3% ▼ Min. 30.0% ▼ 35% ± 5% ▼ Max. 39.2% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection December 3, 2025