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Quebec

Quebec Sovereignty Projection


Latest update: December 7, 2024

Quebec sovereignty vote projection 54% ± 5% 36% ± 4%▼ 9% ± 3% Quebec Sovereignty projection | December 7, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Distribution of undecideds 54% 9% 36% Before distribution 60% 40% Proportional distribution 59% 41% Half & half 61% 39% Two thirds to No camp 57% 43% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | December 7, 2024

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 No 60% ± 5% Yes 40% ± 5% December 7, 2024 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: December 7, 2024
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 54.9% ▼ 60% ± 5% ▼ Max. 64.9% ▼ Min. 35.3% ▼ 40% ± 5% ▼ Max. 44.9% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection December 7, 2024