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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: February 3, 2026


Quebec sovereignty vote projection 55% 64% 60% ± 4% ▲ 25% 33% 29% ± 4% ▼ 9% 14% 12% ± 3% ▲ Quebec Sovereignty projection | February 3, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Distribution of undecideds 60% 12% 29% Before distribution 67% 33% Proportional distribution 65% 35% Half & half 67% 33% Two thirds to No camp 64% 36% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | February 3, 2026

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2026 No 67% ± 5% Yes 33% ± 5% February 3, 2026 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: February 3, 2026
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 62.5% ▼ 67% ± 5% ▼ Max. 72.4% ▼ Min. 27.9% ▼ 33% ± 5% ▼ Max. 37.1% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection February 3, 2026