logo
Quebec
Quebec flag

338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: April 20, 2026


Quebec sovereignty vote projection 59% 68% 63% ± 4% 26% 34% 30% ± 4% 4% 9% 7% ± 2% Quebec Sovereignty projection | April 20, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds 63% 7% 30% Before distribution 68% 32% Proportional distribution 66% 34% Half & half 68% 32% Two thirds to No camp 65% 35% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | April 20, 2026

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Latest update: April 20, 2026
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 63.0% 68% ± 5% Max. 72.3% Min. 27.9% 32% ± 4% Max. 36.8% Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection April 20, 2026