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Quebec

Quebec Sovereignty Projection


Latest update: March 15, 2025

Quebec sovereignty vote projection 61% ± 4%▲ 29% ± 4%▼ 10% ± 3%▼ Quebec Sovereignty projection | March 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Distribution of undecideds 61% 10% 29% Before distribution 67% 33% Proportional distribution 66% 34% Half & half 67% 33% Two thirds to No camp 64% 36% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | March 15, 2025

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 No 67% ± 5% Yes 33% ± 5% March 15, 2025 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: March 15, 2025
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 62.5% ▼ 67% ± 5% ▼ Max. 72.2% ▼ Min. 28.1% ▼ 33% ± 5% ▼ Max. 37.1% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection March 15, 2025