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Quebec

Quebec Sovereignty Projection


Latest update: February 6, 2025

Quebec sovereignty vote projection 57% ± 4%▲ 30% ± 4%▼ 13% ± 3%▲ Quebec Sovereignty projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Distribution of undecideds 57% 13% 30% Before distribution 66% 34% Proportional distribution 64% 36% Half & half 66% 34% Two thirds to No camp 61% 39% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | February 6, 2025

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2022 No 66% ± 5% Yes 34% ± 5% February 6, 2025 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: February 6, 2025
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 60.6% ▼ 66% ± 5% ▼ Max. 70.9% ▼ Min. 29.4% ▼ 34% ± 5% ▼ Max. 39.0% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection February 6, 2025