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Quebec

Quebec Sovereignty Projection


Latest update: May 16, 2025

Quebec sovereignty vote projection 57% ± 4% 33% ± 4% 10% ± 3% Quebec Sovereignty projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Distribution of undecideds 57% 10% 33% Before distribution 64% 36% Proportional distribution 62% 38% Half & half 64% 36% Two thirds to No camp 61% 39% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | May 16, 2025

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 No 64% ± 5% Yes 36% ± 5% May 16, 2025 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: May 16, 2025
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 58.7% ▼ 64% ± 5% ▼ Max. 68.5% ▼ Min. 31.8% ▼ 36% ± 5% ▼ Max. 41.1% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection May 16, 2025