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Quebec Sovereignty Projection


Latest update: June 9, 2024

Quebec sovereignty vote projection 53% ± 5% 35% ± 5%▼ 12% ± 3%▲ Quebec Sovereignty projection | June 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Distribution of undecideds 53% 12% 35% Before distribution 60% 40% Proportional distribution 59% 41% Half & half 61% 39% Two thirds to No camp 57% 43% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | June 9, 2024

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 No 60% ± 6% Yes 40% ± 5% With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: June 9, 2024
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 54.8% 60% ± 6% Max. 66.0% Min. 34.2% 40% ± 5% Max. 44.9% Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection June 9, 2024