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Quebec

Quebec Sovereignty Projection


Latest update: September 15, 2025

Quebec sovereignty vote projection 58% ± 4%▼ 34% ± 4%▲ 8% ± 2% Quebec Sovereignty projection | September 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Distribution of undecideds 58% 8% 34% Before distribution 63% 37% Proportional distribution 62% 38% Half & half 63% 37% Two thirds to No camp 61% 39% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | September 15, 2025

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Quebec Referendum Projection

No Yes Voting intentions % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 No 63% ± 5% Yes 37% ± 5% September 15, 2025 With proportional distribution of undecideds
Latest update: September 15, 2025
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 58.3% ▼ 63% ± 5% ▼ Max. 67.9% ▼ Min. 32.3% ▼ 37% ± 5% ▼ Max. 41.5% ▼ Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection September 15, 2025