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Quebec

Montarville


MNA: Nathalie Roy (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 7, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Montarville 38% ± 7%▼ PQ 30% ± 6%▲ CAQ 16% ± 5% LIB 11% ± 4% QS 4% ± 2%▼ QCP CAQ 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montarville 96%▼ PQ 4%▲ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 7, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Montarville

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 38% ± 7% CAQ 30% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% QCP 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Montarville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP June 7, 2024

Odds of winning | Montarville

LIB <1% PQ 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 7, 2024

Recent electoral history | Montarville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 35.0% 41.1% 45.9% 30% ± 6% PQ 26.3% 16.1% 18.7% 38% ± 7% QS 6.6% 15.9% 16.2% 11% ± 4% LIB 31.3% 24.4% 12.3% 16% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 4% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.