logo
Quebec


Montarville


MNA: Nathalie Roy (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Likely PQ gain
Montarville 39% ± 7%▲ 26% ± 6%▼ 15% ± 5% 13% ± 4%▼ 5% ± 2% CAQ 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Montarville 99%▲ 1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Montarville

LIB 13% ± 4% PQ 39% ± 7% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 15% ± 5% QCP 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Montarville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Montarville

LIB <1% PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Montarville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 35.0% 41.1% 45.9% 26% ± 6% PQ 26.3% 16.1% 18.7% 39% ± 7% QS 6.6% 15.9% 16.2% 15% ± 5% LIB 31.3% 24.4% 12.3% 13% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 5% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%