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Quebec

Montarville


MNA: Nathalie Roy (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ

Montarville 32% ± 6% PQ 31% ± 6%▼ CAQ 21% ± 6%▲ LIB 9% ± 3% QS 5% ± 2% CPQ CAQ 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montarville 56%▲ PQ 44%▼ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Montarville

LIB 21% ± 6% PQ 32% ± 6% CAQ 31% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Montarville 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 40% CAQ 26% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 41% CAQ 25% LIB 15% QS 14% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 25% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 27% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 40% CAQ 26% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 38% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 39% CAQ 29% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 34% PQ 32% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 12% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 36% CAQ 28% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 35% CAQ 30% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 21% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 33% CAQ 30% LIB 22% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 32% PQ 32% LIB 21% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 32% PQ 32% LIB 20% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 21% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Montarville

LIB <1% PQ 56% CAQ 44% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 62% PQ 38% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 76% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 62% CAQ 37% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 72% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 50% PQ 50% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 50% PQ 50% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Montarville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 35.0% 41.1% 45.9% 31% ± 6% PQ 26.3% 16.1% 18.7% 32% ± 6% QS 6.6% 15.9% 16.2% 9% ± 3% LIB 31.3% 24.4% 12.3% 21% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 5% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%