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Quebec

Montarville


MNA: Nathalie Roy (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Montarville 39% ± 7%▲ PQ 29% ± 6%▼ CAQ 15% ± 5%▼ LIB 11% ± 4% QS 4% ± 2% CPQ CAQ 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montarville 98%▲ PQ 2%▼ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Montarville

LIB 15% ± 5% PQ 39% ± 7% CAQ 29% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Montarville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 53% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 53% QS 14% LIB 12% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 51% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 52% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 51% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 51% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 51% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 51% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 51% CPQ 12% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 51% CPQ 12% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 51% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 51% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 51% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 52% CPQ 13% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 12% LIB 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 12% LIB 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 50% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 51% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 51% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 49% QS 13% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 12% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 49% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 50% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 50% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 48% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 49% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 49% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 11% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 49% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 46% PQ 19% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 44% PQ 23% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 44% PQ 23% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 43% PQ 23% QS 18% LIB 12% CPQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 45% PQ 24% QS 16% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 45% PQ 24% QS 16% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 41% PQ 27% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 38% PQ 26% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 38% PQ 26% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 37% PQ 27% QS 15% LIB 14% CPQ 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 35% CAQ 29% QS 15% LIB 14% CPQ 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 39% CAQ 26% QS 15% LIB 13% CPQ 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 23% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 40% CAQ 26% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 41% CAQ 25% LIB 15% QS 14% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 25% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 27% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 40% CAQ 26% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 38% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 39% CAQ 29% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Montarville

LIB <1% PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Montarville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 35.0% 41.1% 45.9% 29% ± 6% PQ 26.3% 16.1% 18.7% 39% ± 7% QS 6.6% 15.9% 16.2% 11% ± 4% LIB 31.3% 24.4% 12.3% 15% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 4% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.