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Quebec

Rosemont


MNA: Vincent Marissal (QS)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/QS
Rosemont 33% ± 7%▼ PQ 31% ± 7%▼ QS 17% ± 5%▲ LIB 12% ± 4%▲ CAQ 6% ± 3%▲ CPQ QS 2022 37.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rosemont 68%▲ PQ 32%▼ QS <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Rosemont

LIB 17% ± 5% PQ 33% ± 7% CAQ 12% ± 4% QS 31% ± 7% CPQ 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Rosemont 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 38% CAQ 23% PQ 21% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 37% CAQ 23% PQ 22% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 37% CAQ 23% PQ 22% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 39% PQ 23% CAQ 22% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 40% PQ 23% CAQ 22% LIB 11% CPQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 39% PQ 25% CAQ 22% LIB 11% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 38% PQ 27% CAQ 22% LIB 10% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 38% PQ 27% CAQ 22% LIB 10% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 36% PQ 27% CAQ 22% LIB 9% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 36% PQ 25% CAQ 21% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 36% PQ 25% CAQ 21% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 34% PQ 25% CAQ 21% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 34% PQ 27% CAQ 21% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 39% PQ 32% CAQ 13% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 44% PQ 31% CAQ 9% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 42% PQ 33% CAQ 11% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 42% PQ 33% CAQ 11% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 42% PQ 34% CAQ 10% LIB 9% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 39% PQ 35% LIB 11% CAQ 10% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 37% PQ 34% LIB 13% CAQ 10% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 37% PQ 34% LIB 13% CAQ 10% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 38% PQ 34% LIB 13% CAQ 9% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 39% PQ 33% LIB 12% CAQ 9% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 36% PQ 33% LIB 12% CAQ 11% CPQ 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 36% PQ 35% LIB 12% CAQ 10% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 36% PQ 35% LIB 13% CAQ 10% CPQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 36% PQ 35% LIB 13% CAQ 10% CPQ 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 33% QS 31% LIB 17% CAQ 12% CPQ 6% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Rosemont

LIB <1% PQ 68% CAQ <1% QS 32% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 99% CAQ 1% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 99% CAQ 1% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 89% PQ 11% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 88% PQ 12% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 93% PQ 7% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 77% PQ 23% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 68% PQ 32% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 71% PQ 29% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 85% PQ 15% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 73% PQ 27% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 57% PQ 43% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 55% PQ 45% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 59% PQ 41% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 68% QS 32% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Rosemont



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 18.7% 35.2% 37.6% 31% ± 7% CAQ 14.2% 15.6% 23.1% 12% ± 4% PQ 34.3% 28.4% 21.3% 33% ± 7% LIB 30.0% 16.8% 11.8% 17% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.6% 4.5% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%