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Quebec

L’Assomption


MNA: François Legault (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely CAQ hold
L’Assomption 39% ± 7%▲ CAQ 31% ± 7%▼ PQ 11% ± 4%▲ LIB 10% ± 4%▼ QS 7% ± 3%▲ CPQ CAQ 2022 58.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% L’Assomption 94%▲ CAQ 6%▼ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | L’Assomption

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 31% ± 7% CAQ 39% ± 7% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | L’Assomption 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 59% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 58% PQ 16% QS 14% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 58% PQ 16% QS 14% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 57% PQ 17% QS 15% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 57% PQ 17% QS 15% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 57% PQ 17% QS 16% LIB 6% CPQ 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 58% PQ 18% QS 14% CPQ 5% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 58% PQ 18% QS 14% CPQ 5% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 54% PQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 5% LIB 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 50% PQ 20% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 50% PQ 20% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 48% PQ 22% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 42% PQ 27% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 40% PQ 29% QS 16% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 38% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 42% PQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 7% LIB 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 38% PQ 32% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 36% PQ 34% QS 15% LIB 7% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 37% PQ 35% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 36% PQ 34% QS 11% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 40% PQ 32% QS 11% LIB 8% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 39% PQ 33% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 41% PQ 29% QS 13% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 39% PQ 32% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 37% PQ 34% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 36% PQ 35% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 38% PQ 34% QS 12% LIB 8% CPQ 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 39% PQ 31% LIB 11% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | L’Assomption

LIB <1% PQ 6% CAQ 94% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 97% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 93% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 83% PQ 17% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 62% PQ 38% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 61% PQ 39% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 63% PQ 37% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 91% PQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 84% PQ 16% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 91% PQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 78% PQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 94% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | L’Assomption



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 50.5% 57.0% 58.6% 39% ± 7% QS 6.0% 17.0% 14.3% 10% ± 4% PQ 31.2% 14.5% 13.7% 31% ± 7% CPQ 0.4% 0.5% 7.6% 7% ± 3% LIB 11.2% 8.0% 5.7% 11% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%