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Quebec


L’Assomption


MNA: François Legault (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Likely CAQ hold
L’Assomption 40% ± 8%▼ 29% ± 7%▲ 16% ± 5%▲ 7% ± 3% 6% ± 3%▼ CAQ 2022 58.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% L’Assomption 97%▼ 3%▲ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | L’Assomption

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 29% ± 7% CAQ 40% ± 8% QS 16% ± 5% QCP 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | L’Assomption 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | L’Assomption

LIB <1% PQ 3% CAQ 97% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | L’Assomption



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 50.5% 57.0% 58.6% 40% ± 8% QS 6.0% 17.0% 14.3% 16% ± 5% PQ 31.2% 14.5% 13.7% 29% ± 7% QCP 0.4% 0.5% 7.6% 7% ± 3% LIB 11.2% 8.0% 5.7% 6% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%