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Quebec

Berthier


MNA: Caroline Proulx (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Berthier 46% ± 7%▼ PQ 26% ± 6% CAQ 11% ± 4%▼ QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 5% ± 2%▲ LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 51.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Berthier >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Berthier

LIB 5% ± 2% PQ 46% ± 7% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Berthier 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 51% PQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 50% PQ 24% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 50% PQ 24% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% PQ 25% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% PQ 25% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 35% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 36% QS 14% CPQ 6% LIB 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 36% QS 14% CPQ 6% LIB 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 32% QS 14% CPQ 6% LIB 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 42% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 42% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 37% PQ 36% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 38% CAQ 34% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 42% CAQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 42% CAQ 29% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 40% CAQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 43% CAQ 29% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 45% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 43% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 10% LIB 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 44% CAQ 29% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 44% CAQ 28% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 43% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 45% CAQ 28% QS 12% CPQ 10% LIB 3% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 48% CAQ 25% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 49% CAQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 47% CAQ 26% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 46% CAQ 26% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Berthier

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 86% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 82% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 82% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 76% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Berthier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 31.0% 45.1% 51.0% 26% ± 6% PQ 39.6% 28.9% 20.8% 46% ± 7% QS 7.0% 15.4% 14.1% 11% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 9% ± 3% LIB 19.9% 7.6% 2.6% 5% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%