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Quebec

Recent electoral history | Marie-Victorin


2014 2018 2022 Projection PQ 44% ± 8% 38.2% 30.8% 24.8% LIB 24% ± 7% 26.0% 15.2% 10.0% CAQ 12% ± 5% 20.6% 28.4% 33.1% QS 9% ± 4% 11.6% 21.7% 22.7% CPQ 8% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0%

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338Canada Marie-Victorin projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Marie-Victorin 36% 52% 44% ± 8% PQ 18% 31% 24% ± 7% LIB 7% 16% 12% ± 5% CAQ 5% 13% 9% ± 4% QS 5% 12% 8% ± 4% CPQ CAQ 2022 33.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marie-Victorin >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marie-Victorin

LIB 24% ± 7% PQ 44% ± 8% CAQ 12% ± 5% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Marie-Victorin 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 46% CAQ 18% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 45% CAQ 19% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 45% CAQ 19% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 45% CAQ 19% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 44% LIB 19% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 43% LIB 21% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 44% LIB 21% CAQ 14% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 47% LIB 20% CAQ 14% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 49% LIB 21% CAQ 11% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 50% LIB 22% CAQ 11% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 50% LIB 21% CAQ 12% CPQ 8% QS 8% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 44% LIB 23% CAQ 14% CPQ 8% QS 8% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 49% LIB 19% CAQ 13% CPQ 8% QS 8% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 47% LIB 19% CAQ 15% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 47% LIB 20% CAQ 13% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 45% LIB 22% CAQ 14% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 44% LIB 23% CAQ 13% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 44% LIB 24% CAQ 12% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Marie-Victorin

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader
83% 17% 47% ± 7% 53% ± 7% Projection of support for sovereignty | Marie-Victorin YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


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Demographic data | Marie-Victorin

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 84.9% French 5.0% English 3.0% Spanish 1.4% Arabic 0.7% Mandarin 0.6% Russian 0.6% PortugueseMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 13.9% No diploma 17.8% High school 17.0% Trade 16.3% College / Cégep 4.6% Some university 17.8% Bachelor's 12.8% PostgraduateMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 73.6% Not visible minority 26.4% Visible minority 11.7% Black 4.7% Latin American 4.5% Arab 1.8% Chinese 0.9% Southeast Asian 0.8% West AsianMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 45.3% Catholic 33.5% No Religion 8.0% Muslim 6.3% Christian (n.o.s.) 1.7% Other Christian 1.0% Orthodox 0.8% Buddhist 0.8% PentecostalMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 66.1% Renter 33.9% OwnerMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 58.3% Employed 35.8% Not in labour force 5.8% UnemployedMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.6% Non-Indigenous 1.4% Indigenous identity 0.7% First Nations 0.6% Metis 0.1% OthersMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 70.4% Car / truck / van 21.1% Public transit 5.2% Walking 1.9% Bicycle 1.4% OtherMarie-VictorinSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.