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Quebec

Marie-Victorin


MNA: Shirley Dorismond

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Marie-Victorin 48% ± 8%▼ PQ 17% ± 5%▲ CAQ 14% ± 5%▲ QS 12% ± 5% LIB 7% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 33.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marie-Victorin >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Marie-Victorin

LIB 12% ± 5% PQ 48% ± 8% CAQ 17% ± 5% QS 14% ± 5% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Marie-Victorin 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 37% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 37% PQ 26% QS 19% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 36% PQ 24% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 36% PQ 24% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 36% PQ 24% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 36% PQ 24% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 36% PQ 25% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 36% PQ 24% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 36% PQ 24% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 36% PQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 36% PQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 36% PQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 35% PQ 27% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 35% PQ 26% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 35% PQ 26% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 35% PQ 26% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 35% PQ 26% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 35% PQ 26% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 36% PQ 26% QS 16% CPQ 12% LIB 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 34% PQ 27% QS 19% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 34% PQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 34% PQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 35% PQ 25% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 35% PQ 26% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 33% PQ 29% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 34% PQ 28% QS 19% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 34% PQ 28% QS 19% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 34% PQ 28% QS 19% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 34% PQ 28% QS 19% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 36% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 36% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 33% PQ 31% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 34% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 34% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 34% PQ 31% QS 18% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 34% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 35% PQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 33% PQ 25% QS 22% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 22% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 22% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 23% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 23% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 32% PQ 30% QS 24% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 33% PQ 32% QS 21% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 33% PQ 32% QS 21% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 34% CAQ 30% QS 20% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 32% CAQ 29% QS 20% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 32% CAQ 29% QS 20% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 34% CAQ 28% QS 19% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 42% CAQ 21% QS 18% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 46% CAQ 19% QS 19% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 50% QS 17% CAQ 15% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 49% CAQ 18% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 49% CAQ 17% QS 16% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 52% QS 16% CAQ 16% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 53% CAQ 16% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 51% CAQ 15% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 50% CAQ 17% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 51% CAQ 17% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 43% CAQ 20% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 46% CAQ 19% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 48% CAQ 17% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 49% CAQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 48% CAQ 17% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Marie-Victorin

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 88% PQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 73% PQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 80% PQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 81% PQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 80% PQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 84% PQ 16% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 88% PQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 88% PQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 66% PQ 34% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 72% PQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 72% PQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 72% PQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 72% PQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 70% PQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 75% PQ 24% QS 1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 75% PQ 24% QS 1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 58% PQ 40% QS 2% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 58% PQ 40% QS 3% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 67% PQ 31% QS 2% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 55% PQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 55% PQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 76% CAQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Marie-Victorin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 20.6% 28.4% 33.1% 17% ± 5% PQ 38.2% 30.8% 24.8% 48% ± 8% QS 11.6% 21.7% 22.7% 14% ± 5% LIB 26.0% 15.2% 10.0% 12% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.