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Quebec

Marie-Victorin


MNA: Shirley Dorismond (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe PQ

Recent electoral history | Marie-Victorin


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 43% ± 8% 38.2% 30.8% 24.8% LIB 21% ± 6% 26.0% 15.2% 10.0% CAQ 14% ± 5% 20.6% 28.4% 33.1% QS 12% ± 4% 11.6% 21.7% 22.7% CPQ 8% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0%




338Canada projection for Marie-Victorin


Marie-Victorin 43% ± 8%▼ PQ 21% ± 6%▲ LIB 14% ± 5% CAQ 12% ± 4% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ CAQ 2022 33.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marie-Victorin >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marie-Victorin

LIB 21% ± 6% PQ 43% ± 8% CAQ 14% ± 5% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Marie-Victorin 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 49% CAQ 18% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 49% CAQ 17% QS 16% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 52% QS 16% CAQ 16% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 53% CAQ 16% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 51% CAQ 15% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 50% CAQ 17% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 51% CAQ 17% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 43% CAQ 20% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 46% CAQ 19% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 48% CAQ 17% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 49% CAQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 48% CAQ 17% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 45% CAQ 18% LIB 16% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 46% CAQ 18% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 45% CAQ 19% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 45% CAQ 19% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 45% CAQ 19% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 44% LIB 19% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 43% LIB 21% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Marie-Victorin

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader