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Quebec

Marie-Victorin


MNA: Shirley Dorismond (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Marie-Victorin 45% ± 8%▼ PQ 18% ± 5%▲ CAQ 16% ± 5%▲ LIB 12% ± 4%▼ QS 8% ± 3%▲ CPQ CAQ 2022 33.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marie-Victorin >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Marie-Victorin

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 45% ± 8% CAQ 18% ± 5% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Marie-Victorin 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 33% PQ 25% QS 22% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 22% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 22% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 23% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 23% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 32% PQ 30% QS 24% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 33% PQ 32% QS 21% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 33% PQ 32% QS 21% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 34% CAQ 30% QS 20% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 32% CAQ 29% QS 20% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 32% CAQ 29% QS 20% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 34% CAQ 28% QS 19% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 42% CAQ 21% QS 18% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 46% CAQ 19% QS 19% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 50% QS 17% CAQ 15% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 49% CAQ 18% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 49% CAQ 17% QS 16% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 52% QS 16% CAQ 16% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 53% CAQ 16% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 51% CAQ 15% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 50% CAQ 17% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 51% CAQ 17% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 43% CAQ 20% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 46% CAQ 19% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 48% CAQ 17% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 49% CAQ 16% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 48% CAQ 17% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 45% CAQ 18% LIB 16% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Marie-Victorin

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 75% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 75% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 58% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 58% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 67% PQ 31% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 76% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 84% CAQ 16% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Marie-Victorin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 20.6% 28.4% 33.1% 18% ± 5% PQ 38.2% 30.8% 24.8% 45% ± 8% QS 11.6% 21.7% 22.7% 12% ± 4% LIB 26.0% 15.2% 10.0% 16% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%