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Quebec

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière


MNA: Martine Biron (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 29% ± 7%▲ CPQ 28% ± 6%▼ PQ 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 8% ± 3%▲ LIB 7% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 47.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 56%▲ CPQ 33%▼ PQ 11%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 28% ± 6% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 29% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 27% PQ 11% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 25% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 25% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% CPQ 21% PQ 15% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 21% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 40% CPQ 27% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 39% PQ 24% CPQ 22% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 39% PQ 23% CPQ 22% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 39% PQ 23% CPQ 21% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% CPQ 27% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 28% PQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 26% CPQ 26% CAQ 26% QS 14% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% PQ 27% CPQ 26% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 29% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 28% CAQ 27% CPQ 24% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 25% QS 11% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% PQ 25% CPQ 24% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% PQ 25% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% PQ 26% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 29% PQ 28% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 29% PQ 28% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 30% CAQ 27% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 31% CAQ 26% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 30% CAQ 27% CPQ 26% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 29% PQ 28% CAQ 26% LIB 8% QS 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

LIB <1% PQ 33% CAQ 11% CPQ 56% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 65% CPQ 28% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 45% PQ 40% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 36% CPQ 36% CAQ 28% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 41% PQ 33% CPQ 26% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 54% CAQ 45% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 50% CAQ 37% CPQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 51% CAQ 36% CPQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 87% PQ 8% CPQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 85% CPQ 9% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 77% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 57% PQ 33% CPQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 49% PQ 38% CPQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 70% CAQ 22% CPQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 82% CAQ 11% CPQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 66% CAQ 20% CPQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 56% PQ 33% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 47.7% 59.5% 47.5% 26% ± 6% CPQ 1.3% 4.3% 27.2% 29% ± 7% PQ 12.9% 9.4% 11.1% 28% ± 6% QS 4.4% 11.4% 9.3% 7% ± 3% LIB 32.5% 13.9% 4.9% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%