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Quebec

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière


MNA: Martine Biron

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 30% ± 6%▲ PQ 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 25% ± 7% CPQ 10% ± 3% QS 6% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 47.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 70%▲ PQ 22%▼ CAQ 8%▼ CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 30% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 10% ± 3% CPQ 25% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 7% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 48% CPQ 30% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 47% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 47% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 47% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 47% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 46% CPQ 32% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 32% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 46% CPQ 32% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 9% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 47% CPQ 31% QS 8% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 47% CPQ 31% QS 8% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% QS 8% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 48% CPQ 31% QS 8% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 48% CPQ 31% QS 8% LIB 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 48% CPQ 31% QS 8% LIB 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 6% LIB 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 6% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 46% CPQ 30% QS 10% PQ 8% LIB 4% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 49% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 49% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 7% LIB 4% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 48% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 49% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 48% CPQ 28% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 4% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 49% CPQ 27% QS 10% PQ 10% LIB 4% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 27% PQ 11% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 48% CPQ 25% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 25% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% CPQ 21% PQ 15% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 21% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 40% CPQ 27% PQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 39% PQ 24% CPQ 22% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 39% PQ 23% CPQ 22% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 39% PQ 23% CPQ 21% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 22% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 35% CPQ 27% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% CPQ 27% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 28% PQ 28% CAQ 26% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 26% CPQ 26% CAQ 26% QS 14% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% PQ 27% CPQ 26% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 29% CAQ 29% PQ 22% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 28% CAQ 27% CPQ 24% QS 13% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 28% CAQ 28% CPQ 25% QS 11% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% PQ 25% CPQ 24% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% PQ 25% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% PQ 26% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 29% PQ 28% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 29% PQ 28% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 30% CAQ 27% CPQ 25% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

LIB <1% PQ 70% CAQ 22% QS <1% CPQ 8% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 65% CPQ 28% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 45% PQ 40% CAQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 36% CPQ 36% CAQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 41% PQ 33% CPQ 26% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 54% CAQ 45% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 50% CAQ 37% CPQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 51% CAQ 36% CPQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 87% PQ 8% CPQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 85% CPQ 9% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 77% CPQ 13% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 57% PQ 33% CPQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 49% PQ 38% CPQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 70% CAQ 22% CPQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Chutes-de-la-Chaudière



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 47.7% 59.5% 47.5% 27% ± 6% CPQ 1.3% 4.3% 27.2% 25% ± 7% PQ 12.9% 9.4% 11.1% 30% ± 6% QS 4.4% 11.4% 9.3% 10% ± 3% LIB 32.5% 13.9% 4.9% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.