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Quebec

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve


MNA: Alexandre Leduc

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
QS leaning hold
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 42% ± 9% QS 35% ± 8%▼ PQ 8% ± 4% LIB 8% ± 3%▲ CAQ 5% ± 3% CPQ QS 2022 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 83%▲ QS 17%▼ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

LIB 8% ± 4% PQ 35% ± 8% CAQ 8% ± 3% QS 42% ± 9% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 QS 49% CAQ 25% PQ 13% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 QS 49% CAQ 26% PQ 12% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 11% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 QS 47% CAQ 25% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS 47% CAQ 25% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 13% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS 48% CAQ 25% PQ 13% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 QS 46% CAQ 25% PQ 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 QS 46% CAQ 25% PQ 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 QS 46% CAQ 26% PQ 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 QS 46% CAQ 26% PQ 13% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 QS 46% CAQ 26% PQ 12% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 QS 45% CAQ 26% PQ 12% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 50% CAQ 23% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS 50% CAQ 23% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS 49% CAQ 24% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 49% CAQ 24% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS 49% CAQ 24% PQ 12% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 48% CAQ 23% PQ 16% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 47% CAQ 23% PQ 16% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 47% CAQ 23% PQ 16% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 47% CAQ 23% PQ 16% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 48% CAQ 23% PQ 16% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS 48% CAQ 24% PQ 15% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 QS 47% CAQ 24% PQ 15% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 47% CAQ 22% PQ 18% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 47% CAQ 22% PQ 18% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 47% CAQ 22% PQ 18% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 48% CAQ 22% PQ 18% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 47% CAQ 21% PQ 18% CPQ 7% LIB 5% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS 47% CAQ 21% PQ 19% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 51% CAQ 19% PQ 16% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 50% CAQ 19% PQ 17% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 50% CAQ 19% PQ 17% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 53% CAQ 18% PQ 18% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 53% CAQ 18% PQ 17% LIB 7% CPQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 53% PQ 19% CAQ 18% LIB 7% CPQ 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 52% PQ 20% CAQ 18% LIB 6% CPQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 52% PQ 20% CAQ 18% LIB 6% CPQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 50% PQ 20% CAQ 18% LIB 6% CPQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 49% PQ 19% CAQ 18% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 49% PQ 19% CAQ 18% LIB 7% CPQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 48% PQ 19% CAQ 18% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 45% PQ 22% CAQ 18% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 45% PQ 31% CAQ 12% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 50% PQ 29% CAQ 9% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 47% PQ 32% CAQ 10% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 47% PQ 32% CAQ 10% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 48% PQ 32% CAQ 9% LIB 5% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 45% PQ 34% CAQ 10% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 42% PQ 33% CAQ 9% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 43% PQ 33% CAQ 9% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 44% PQ 33% CAQ 9% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 45% PQ 32% CAQ 9% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 42% PQ 34% CAQ 9% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 42% PQ 36% LIB 8% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 42% PQ 36% LIB 8% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 42% PQ 35% LIB 8% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

LIB <1% PQ 17% CAQ <1% QS 83% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 95% PQ 5% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 93% PQ 7% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 94% PQ 6% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 91% PQ 9% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 82% PQ 18% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 80% PQ 20% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 83% PQ 17% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 30.6% 49.7% 50.8% 42% ± 9% CAQ 11.9% 13.1% 18.8% 8% ± 3% PQ 34.9% 23.4% 16.0% 35% ± 8% LIB 18.0% 10.3% 7.8% 8% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.8% 4.6% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.