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Quebec

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve


MNA: Alexandre Leduc (QS)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
QS leaning hold
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 40% ± 8%▲ QS 34% ± 8%▲ PQ 10% ± 4%▼ LIB 8% ± 4% CAQ 5% ± 3% CPQ QS 2022 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 83% QS 17% PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 34% ± 8% CAQ 8% ± 4% QS 40% ± 8% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 47% PQ 32% CAQ 10% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 47% PQ 32% CAQ 10% LIB 6% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 48% PQ 32% CAQ 9% LIB 5% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 45% PQ 34% CAQ 10% LIB 7% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 42% PQ 33% CAQ 9% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 43% PQ 33% CAQ 9% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 44% PQ 33% CAQ 9% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 45% PQ 32% CAQ 9% LIB 8% CPQ 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 42% PQ 34% CAQ 9% LIB 8% CPQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 42% PQ 36% LIB 8% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 42% PQ 36% LIB 8% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 42% PQ 35% LIB 8% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 38% PQ 34% LIB 12% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 38% PQ 35% LIB 12% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 39% PQ 33% LIB 12% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 40% PQ 34% LIB 10% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

LIB <1% PQ 17% CAQ <1% QS 83% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 95% PQ 5% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 92% PQ 8% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 93% PQ 7% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 94% PQ 6% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 97% PQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 91% PQ 9% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 82% PQ 18% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 80% PQ 20% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 83% PQ 17% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 QS 69% PQ 31% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 83% PQ 17% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 83% PQ 17% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 30.6% 49.7% 50.8% 40% ± 8% CAQ 11.9% 13.1% 18.8% 8% ± 4% PQ 34.9% 23.4% 16.0% 34% ± 8% LIB 18.0% 10.3% 7.8% 10% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.8% 4.6% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%