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Quebec

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve


MNA: Alexandre Leduc (QS)

Latest projection: December 19, 2025
Toss up PQ/QS

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 36% ± 8% 34.9% 23.4% 16.0% QS 35% ± 9% 30.6% 49.7% 50.8% LIB 12% ± 5% 18.0% 10.3% 7.8% CAQ 9% ± 4% 11.9% 13.1% 18.8% CPQ 7% ± 3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.6%




338Canada projection for Hochelaga-Maisonneuve


Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 28% 44% 36% ± 8% PQ 26% 43% 35% ± 9% QS 7% 17% 12% ± 5% LIB 5% 13% 9% ± 4% CAQ 3% 10% 7% ± 3% CPQ QS 2022 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 19, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 55%▼ PQ 45%▲ QS <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 19, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

LIB 12% ± 5% PQ 36% ± 8% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 35% ± 9% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 19, 2025 2025-03-05 QS 38% PQ 35% LIB 12% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 39% PQ 33% LIB 12% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 40% PQ 34% LIB 10% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 40% PQ 34% LIB 11% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 QS 40% PQ 32% LIB 14% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 QS 38% PQ 31% LIB 16% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 QS 38% PQ 31% LIB 16% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 QS 38% PQ 33% LIB 16% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 37% QS 36% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 6% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 38% QS 35% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 6% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 38% QS 34% LIB 13% CAQ 7% CPQ 6% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 QS 35% PQ 34% LIB 15% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 37% QS 35% LIB 13% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 36% QS 35% LIB 12% CAQ 9% CPQ 7% 2025-12-19 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve

LIB <1% PQ 55% CAQ <1% QS 45% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 19, 2025 2025-03-05 QS 69% PQ 31% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 83% PQ 17% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 83% PQ 17% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 82% PQ 18% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 QS 90% PQ 10% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 QS 89% PQ 11% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 QS 88% PQ 12% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 QS 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 56% QS 44% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 70% QS 30% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 72% QS 28% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 QS 61% PQ 39% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 64% QS 36% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 55% QS 45% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-19 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader
59% 41% 49% ± 7% 51% ± 7% Projection of support for souvereignty | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve YES NO 338Canada December 19, 2025