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Quebec

Québec solidaire





Last update: February 18, 2024

LeaderManon Massé / Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
National popular vote in 202215.4%
Current vote projection16.3% ± 2.6%
Current number of MNA's12
Current seat projection15 [10-18]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 18, 2024 20 15 10 5 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% Vote efficiency | QS 338Canada ©2023 1.3 seat/% 15 [10-18] 16% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 18, 2024

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 13.7% 2022 15.4% 16.3% ± 2.6% Max. 18.9% Probabilities % QS

Seat projection | February 18, 2024

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 10 2022 11 seats 15 Max. 18 Probabilities % QS

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Québec solidaire


Last update: February 18, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Gouin QS safe hold >99%
2. Mercier QS safe hold >99%
3. Laurier-Dorion QS safe hold >99%
4. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne QS safe hold >99%
5. Sherbrooke QS safe hold >99%
6. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS safe hold >99%
7. Verdun QS likely hold 99%
8. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely hold 99%
9. Viau QS likely gain 94%
10. Rosemont QS likely hold 92%
11. Jean-Lesage QS leaning hold 77%
12. Saint-François QS leaning gain 76%
13. Maurice-Richard QS leaning hold 75%
14. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 64%
15. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/QS 54%
16. Ungava Toss up PQ/QS 24%
17. Hull Leaning LIB gain 5%
18. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold 4%
19. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 1%