logo
logo
Quebec
Quebec flag

Québec solidaire

Latest update: August 6, 2026
LeaderRuba Ghazal
National popular vote in 202215.4%
Current vote projection9.3% ± 1.8%
Current number of MNA's11
Current seat projection6 [2-8]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 6, 2026 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Vote efficiency | QS 338Canada ©2023 1.3 seat/% [2-8] 9% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 6, 2026

5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 7.5% ▼ 9.3% ± 1.8% ▼ Max. 11.1% ▼ Probabilities % QS August 6, 2026

Seat projection | August 6, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 2 ▼ 6 ▼ Max. 8 ▼ 2022 11 seats Probabilities % QS August 6, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Québec solidaire


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Gouin QS safe 1 GOUI 2. Mercier QS likely 2 MERC 3. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 3 SMSJ 4. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 4 HOMA 5. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 5 TASH 6. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 6 JLES 7. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 7 ROSE 8. Laurier-Dorion Likely LIB 8 LAUD 9. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Likely LIB 9 SHSA 10. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 10 SHER 11. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 11 ROUY 12. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 12 STFR 13. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/PQ 13 MAUR 14. Verdun Safe LIB 14 VERD 15. Viau Safe LIB 15 VIAU 16. Rimouski Safe PQ 16 RIMO 17. Richmond Leaning LIB 17 RCHM 18. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 18 UNGA 19. Orford Likely LIB 19 ORFO 20. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 20 MROU 21. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 21 GRBY 22. Hull Safe LIB 22 HULL 23. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 23 RDLT 24. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 24 IBER 25. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 25 DAJO 26. Chapleau Leaning LIB 26 CHAP 27. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 27 TRIV 28. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 28 ABIO 29. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 29 PAPI 30. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 30 BELF 31. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 31 PATR 32. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 32 BROM 33. Mégantic Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ 33 MEGA 34. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 34 StHY 35. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 35 StJR 36. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 36 MVIC 37. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 37 MTRV 38. Charlesbourg Leaning PQ 38 CHAR 39. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 39 DRUM 40. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Leaning PQ 40 MLGL 41. Borduas Leaning CAQ 41 BORD 42. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 42 ANLR 43. Huntingdon Likely LIB 43 HUNT 44. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 44 JTAL 45. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 45 LAPR 46. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 46 CXCB 47. Berthier Safe PQ 47 BRTH 48. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 48 CHBY 49. Louis-Hébert Leaning PQ 49 LHEB 50. Gatineau Safe LIB 50 GATI 51. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 51 ABIE 52. Prévost Safe PQ 52 PREV 53. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 53 VALR 54. Taillon Likely PQ 54 TAIL 55. L’Assomption Leaning PQ 55 LASS 56. Verchères Likely PQ 56 VERC 57. Maskinongé Likely PQ 57 MASK 58. Vachon Leaning PQ 58 VACH 59. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 59 CHCH 60. Jonquière Safe PQ 60 JONQ 61. Labelle Safe PQ 61 LABL 62. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 62 CHPN 63. Bertrand Safe PQ 63 BERT 64. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 64 BEAU 65. Acadie Safe LIB 65 ACAD 66. Chauveau PCQ likely 66 CHAU 67. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 67 CODS 68. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 68 LAPO 69. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 69 LVSM 70. Montmorency PCQ leaning 70 MOMO 71. Portneuf PCQ likely 71 PORT 72. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 72 LEVI 73. Sanguinet Leaning PQ 73 SANG 74. La Peltrie PCQ likely 74 LAPE 75. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 75 StJN 76. Joliette Safe PQ 76 JOLI 77. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 77 BOUS 78. Dubuc Safe PQ 78 DUBU 79. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 79 LOTF 80. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 80 NODG 81. Groulx Leaning PQ 81 GROU 82. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 82 CHIC 83. Bonaventure Safe PQ 83 BONA 84. Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ 84 NICO 85. Rousseau Likely PQ 85 ROUS 86. Gaspé Safe PQ 86 GASP 87. Blainville Leaning PQ 87 BLAI 88. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 88 RENE 89. Marquette Safe LIB 89 MARQ 90. Repentigny Likely PQ 90 REPE 91. La Pinière Safe LIB 91 LAPI 92. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 92 LVDR 93. Pontiac Safe LIB 93 PONT 94. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 94 DMON 95. Roberval Safe PQ 95 ROBV 96. Mirabel Leaning PQ 96 MIRA 97. Les Plaines Likely PQ 97 LPLA 98. Châteauguay Safe LIB 98 CHAT 99. Richelieu Likely PQ 99 RCHL 100. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 100 CAML 101. Duplessis Safe PQ 101 DUPL 102. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 102 JMVI 103. Masson Likely PQ 103 MASS 104. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 104 BEAS 105. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 105 MILI 106. Bellechasse PCQ safe 106 BELL 107. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 107 BEAN 108. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 108 LASJ 109. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 109 WSTL 110. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 110 IDLM 111. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 111 StLR 112. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 112 MAMA 113. Terrebonne Likely PQ 113 TERR 114. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 114 MARG 115. Argenteuil Safe PQ 115 ARGE 116. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 116 StRO 117. LaFontaine Safe LIB 117 LAFO 118. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 118 VIMO 119. Arthabaska-L’Érable Safe PQ 119 ARTH 120. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 120 DAMC 121. Fabre Safe LIB 121 FABR 122. Soulanges Safe LIB 122 SOUL 123. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 123 VAUD 124. Chomedey Safe LIB 124 CHOM 125. Nelligan Safe LIB 125 NELL 126. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 126 BALD 127. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 127 JACA 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 6, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Gouin
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
 QS QS safe
2.
Mercier
Ruba Ghazal
 QS QS likely
3.
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Manon Massé
 QS QS likely
4.
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Alexandre Leduc
 QS QS leaning
5.
Taschereau
Étienne Grandmont
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
6.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
7.
Rosemont
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
 I Toss up PQ/QS
8.
Laurier-Dorion
Andrès Fontecilla
 QS Likely LIB
9.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
 QS Likely LIB
10.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Toss up LIB/PQ
11.
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Daniel Bernard
 CA Likely PQ
12.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
13.
Maurice-Richard
Haroun Bouazzi
 QS Toss up LIB/PQ