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Quebec

Québec solidaire





Last update: December 8, 2024

LeaderGabriel Nadeau-Dubois / Émilise Lessard-Therrien
National popular vote in 202215.4%
Current vote projection13.3% ± 2.2%
Current number of MNA's12
Current seat projection8 [5-12]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% Vote efficiency | QS 338Canada ©2023 1.4 seat/% 8 [5-12] 13% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 8, 2024

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.1% ▼ 13.3% ± 2.2% ▼ Max. 15.5% ▼ 2022 15.4% Probabilities % QS

Seat projection | December 8, 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 5 ▼ 8 ▼ 2022 11 seats Max. 12 ▼ Probabilities % QS

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Québec solidaire


Last update: December 8, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Gouin QS safe hold >99%
2. Laurier-Dorion QS safe hold >99%
3. Mercier QS likely hold >99%
4. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 98%
5. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 97%
6. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne QS likely hold 94%
7. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning hold 83%
8. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 59%
9. Maurice-Richard Toss up PQ/QS 37%
10. Jean-Lesage Leaning PQ gain 30%
11. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 17%
12. Verdun Leaning LIB gain 13%
13. Viau Leaning LIB hold 12%
14. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 9%
15. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 4%
16. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 2%