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Quebec

Québec solidaire





Last update: August 29, 2024

LeaderGabriel Nadeau-Dubois / Émilise Lessard-Therrien
National popular vote in 202215.4%
Current vote projection14.5% ± 2.4%
Current number of MNA's12
Current seat projection9 [6-15]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 29, 2024 20 15 10 5 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% Vote efficiency | QS 338Canada ©2023 1.4 seat/% 9 [6-15] 15% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | August 29, 2024

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 12.1% 14.5% ± 2.4% 2022 15.4% Max. 16.9% Probabilities % QS

Seat projection | August 29, 2024

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 6 9 2022 11 seats Max. 15 Probabilities % QS

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Québec solidaire


Last update: August 29, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Gouin QS safe hold >99%
2. Mercier QS safe hold >99%
3. Laurier-Dorion QS safe hold >99%
4. Sherbrooke QS safe hold >99%
5. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS safe hold >99%
6. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne QS likely hold 99%
7. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely hold 97%
8. Rosemont QS leaning hold 85%
9. Maurice-Richard QS leaning hold 75%
10. Verdun Toss up LIB/QS 41%
11. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 40%
12. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 35%
13. Viau Toss up LIB/QS 34%
14. Saint-François Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 25%
15. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 21%
16. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/QS 13%
17. Hull Likely LIB gain 2%
18. Mont-Royal -Outremont Likely LIB hold 2%