Québec solidaire
Last update: June 17, 2024
| Leader | Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois / Émilise Lessard-Therrien |
| National popular vote in 2022 | 15.4% |
| Current vote projection | 13.8% ± 2.3% |
| Current number of MNA's | 12 |
| Current seat projection | 10 [6-14] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | June 17, 2024
Seat projection | June 17, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Québec solidaire
Last update: June 17, 2024
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Gouin |  |
QS safe hold | >99% |
| 2. | Mercier | |
QS safe hold | >99% |
| 3. | Laurier-Dorion | |
QS safe hold | >99% |
| 4. | Sherbrooke | |
QS safe hold | >99% |
| 5. | Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques | |
QS likely hold | 99% |
| 6. | Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | |
QS likely hold | 99% |
| 7. | Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | |
QS likely hold | 94% |
| 8. | Rosemont | |
QS leaning hold | 75% |
| 9. | Maurice-Richard | |
Toss up PQ/QS | 62% |
| 10. | Jean-Lesage | |
Toss up PQ/QS | 55% |
| 11. | Verdun | |
Leaning LIB gain | 30% |
| 12. | Taschereau | |
Leaning PQ gain | 25% |
| 13. | Viau |  |
Leaning LIB hold | 24% |
| 14. | Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue |  |
Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS | 24% |
| 15. | Saint-François | |
Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS | 16% |
| 16. | Ungava | |
Toss up LIB/PQ | 7% |
| 17. | Hull | |
Likely LIB gain | 1% |
| 18. | Mont-Royal -Outremont | |
Likely LIB hold | 1% |