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Quebec

Dubuc


MNA: François Tremblay (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Dubuc 46% ± 8%▲ PQ 31% ± 7%▼ CAQ 10% ± 4%▲ CPQ 6% ± 3%▼ QS 5% ± 3%▲ LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 57.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dubuc 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Dubuc

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 46% ± 8% CAQ 31% ± 7% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Dubuc 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 58% PQ 18% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 57% PQ 20% QS 10% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 57% PQ 20% QS 10% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 56% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 56% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 7% LIB 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 7% LIB 1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 7% LIB 1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 52% PQ 27% QS 11% CPQ 7% LIB 1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 48% PQ 27% QS 12% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 48% PQ 27% QS 12% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 39% PQ 37% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 39% CAQ 36% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 41% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 32% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 40% CAQ 35% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 37% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 42% CAQ 35% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 34% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 41% CAQ 35% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 42% CAQ 34% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% CAQ 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 46% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 47% CAQ 29% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 46% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Dubuc

LIB <1% PQ 99% CAQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 77% CAQ 23% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 86% CAQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Dubuc



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 18.9% 40.2% 57.6% 31% ± 7% PQ 32.1% 21.2% 17.5% 46% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 2.5% 11.0% 10% ± 4% QS 5.4% 12.1% 10.6% 6% ± 3% LIB 41.0% 22.4% 2.5% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%