logo
Quebec

Dubuc


MNA: François Tremblay (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 7, 2024
Leaning PQ gain
Dubuc 41% ± 8% PQ 35% ± 7%▲ CAQ 10% ± 4%▲ QS 9% ± 4%▼ QCP 3% ± 2% LIB 2% ± 2% OTH CAQ 2022 57.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dubuc 86%▼ PQ 14%▲ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | June 7, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Dubuc

PQ 41% ± 8% CAQ 35% ± 7% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Dubuc 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS QCP June 7, 2024

Odds of winning | Dubuc

LIB <1% PQ 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 7, 2024

Recent electoral history | Dubuc



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 18.9% 40.2% 57.6% 35% ± 7% PQ 32.1% 21.2% 17.5% 41% ± 8% QCP 0.0% 2.5% 11.0% 9% ± 4% QS 5.4% 12.1% 10.6% 10% ± 4% LIB 41.0% 22.4% 2.5% 3% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.