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Quebec

Dubuc


MNA: François Tremblay (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe PQ

Recent electoral history | Dubuc


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 46% ± 8% 32.1% 21.2% 17.5% CAQ 26% ± 7% 18.9% 40.2% 57.6% CPQ 11% ± 4% 0.0% 2.5% 11.0% LIB 8% ± 4% 41.0% 22.4% 2.5% QS 6% ± 3% 5.4% 12.1% 10.6%




338Canada projection for Dubuc


Dubuc 46% ± 8%▼ PQ 26% ± 7% CAQ 11% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 4%▲ LIB 6% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 57.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dubuc >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Dubuc

LIB 8% ± 4% PQ 46% ± 8% CAQ 26% ± 7% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Dubuc 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 40% CAQ 35% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 37% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 42% CAQ 35% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 34% CPQ 10% QS 9% LIB 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 41% CAQ 35% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 42% CAQ 34% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% CAQ 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 46% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 47% CAQ 29% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 3% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 46% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 46% CAQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 45% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 45% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 49% CAQ 28% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 47% CAQ 26% CPQ 11% LIB 7% QS 6% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 46% CAQ 26% CPQ 11% LIB 8% QS 6% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Dubuc

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 77% CAQ 23% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 86% CAQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader