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Quebec

Dubuc


MNA: François Tremblay (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Dubuc 42% ± 8%▲ PQ 34% ± 7%▼ CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 3% ± 2% LIB 2% ± 2% OTH CAQ 2022 57.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dubuc 92%▲ PQ 8%▼ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Dubuc

PQ 42% ± 8% CAQ 34% ± 7% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Dubuc 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 52% PQ 12% CPQ 12% QS 11% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 52% CPQ 12% PQ 11% QS 11% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 51% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 50% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 53% CPQ 15% PQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 51% CPQ 14% PQ 12% QS 11% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% PQ 12% QS 11% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% PQ 12% QS 11% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 11% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 49% CPQ 15% PQ 15% QS 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 49% PQ 15% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 49% PQ 15% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 50% PQ 15% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 50% PQ 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 52% CPQ 14% PQ 13% QS 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 49% PQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 50% PQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 50% PQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 50% PQ 16% CPQ 13% QS 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 50% PQ 16% CPQ 13% QS 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 50% PQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 58% PQ 18% CPQ 11% QS 11% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 57% PQ 20% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 57% PQ 20% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 56% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 56% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 52% PQ 27% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 48% PQ 27% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 48% PQ 27% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 39% PQ 37% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 39% CAQ 36% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 41% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 32% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 40% CAQ 35% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 37% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 42% CAQ 35% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 34% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 41% CAQ 35% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 42% CAQ 34% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Dubuc

LIB <1% PQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 60% PQ 40% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Dubuc



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 18.9% 40.2% 57.6% 34% ± 7% PQ 32.1% 21.2% 17.5% 42% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 2.5% 11.0% 9% ± 4% QS 5.4% 12.1% 10.6% 10% ± 4% LIB 41.0% 22.4% 2.5% 3% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.