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Quebec

Lévis


MNA: Bernard Drainville (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Lévis 32% ± 6%▼ PQ 29% ± 6%▼ CAQ 23% ± 6%▲ CPQ 7% ± 3%▼ QS 7% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lévis 70%▼ PQ 29%▲ CAQ 1%▲ CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lévis

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 32% ± 6% CAQ 29% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 23% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Lévis 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 49% CPQ 21% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 49% CPQ 19% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 49% CPQ 19% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% PQ 17% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% PQ 17% CPQ 16% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 38% PQ 24% CPQ 20% QS 12% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 38% PQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 38% PQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 37% PQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 34% PQ 28% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 34% PQ 29% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 34% PQ 29% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 32% PQ 32% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 33% CAQ 29% CPQ 19% QS 12% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 33% CAQ 29% CPQ 17% QS 15% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 34% CAQ 30% CPQ 16% QS 14% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 32% PQ 27% CPQ 20% QS 14% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34% CAQ 30% CPQ 16% QS 14% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 34% CAQ 31% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 34% PQ 30% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 34% PQ 29% CPQ 19% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 33% PQ 30% CPQ 19% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 35% CAQ 31% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 36% CAQ 30% CPQ 18% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 34% CAQ 31% CPQ 19% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 29% CPQ 23% QS 7% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Lévis

LIB <1% PQ 70% CAQ 29% CPQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 93% PQ 7% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 93% PQ 7% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 93% PQ 7% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 87% PQ 13% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 83% PQ 17% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 83% PQ 17% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 52% PQ 48% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 78% CAQ 22% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 81% CAQ 19% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 74% CAQ 26% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 83% PQ 17% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 76% CAQ 24% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 77% CAQ 23% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 81% PQ 18% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 72% PQ 28% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 58% PQ 42% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 50% PQ 50% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 77% CAQ 23% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 88% CAQ 12% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 75% CAQ 25% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 70% CAQ 29% CPQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Lévis



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 40.5% 57.3% 48.8% 29% ± 6% CPQ 0.8% 2.7% 20.8% 23% ± 6% PQ 16.6% 10.3% 12.9% 32% ± 6% QS 6.2% 11.7% 11.5% 7% ± 3% LIB 34.9% 14.5% 5.1% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%