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Quebec

La Prairie


MNA: Christian Dubé (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 7, 2024
Leaning CAQ hold
La Prairie 34% ± 7%▲ CAQ 29% ± 6%▼ PQ 19% ± 6%▼ LIB 10% ± 4%▼ QS 7% ± 3% QCP CAQ 2022 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% La Prairie 87%▲ CAQ 13%▼ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 7, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | La Prairie

LIB 19% ± 6% PQ 29% ± 6% CAQ 34% ± 7% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | La Prairie 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP June 7, 2024

Odds of winning | La Prairie

LIB <1% PQ 13% CAQ 87% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 7, 2024

Recent electoral history | La Prairie



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 32.6% 43.1% 52.7% 34% ± 7% LIB 34.0% 24.0% 13.9% 19% ± 6% QS 5.9% 13.0% 13.1% 10% ± 4% PQ 26.3% 15.6% 11.4% 29% ± 6% QCP 0.5% 1.1% 8.0% 7% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.