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Quebec

La Prairie


MNA: Christian Dubé (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Leaning CAQ hold
La Prairie 33% ± 7%▼ CAQ 29% ± 6% PQ 18% ± 5%▼ LIB 11% ± 4%▲ QS 7% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% La Prairie 79%▼ CAQ 21%▲ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | La Prairie

LIB 18% ± 5% PQ 29% ± 6% CAQ 33% ± 7% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | La Prairie 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 56% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 56% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 55% LIB 13% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 55% LIB 13% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 55% LIB 13% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 55% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 54% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 54% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 54% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 54% LIB 14% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 54% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 54% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 54% LIB 14% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 54% LIB 14% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 54% LIB 14% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 53% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 53% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 54% LIB 14% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 54% LIB 13% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 52% LIB 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 53% LIB 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 53% LIB 13% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 53% LIB 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 53% LIB 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 51% LIB 13% CPQ 12% PQ 11% QS 11% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 52% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 52% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 52% CPQ 12% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 51% CPQ 12% LIB 12% QS 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 53% CPQ 12% LIB 12% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 53% CPQ 12% LIB 12% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 51% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 12% QS 11% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 52% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 12% QS 11% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 52% PQ 12% CPQ 12% LIB 12% QS 11% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 52% PQ 12% LIB 12% CPQ 12% QS 11% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 52% PQ 12% LIB 12% CPQ 12% QS 11% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 52% PQ 13% LIB 12% CPQ 11% QS 11% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 53% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 52% LIB 14% PQ 13% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 52% LIB 14% PQ 13% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 52% PQ 14% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 52% PQ 14% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 51% LIB 15% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 53% PQ 15% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 53% PQ 15% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 49% PQ 17% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 45% PQ 16% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 45% PQ 16% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 45% PQ 17% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 37% PQ 23% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 37% PQ 23% LIB 16% QS 14% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 33% PQ 26% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 36% PQ 25% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 32% PQ 28% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 32% PQ 31% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 34% PQ 29% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 33% PQ 29% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | La Prairie

LIB <1% PQ 21% CAQ 79% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 90% PQ 10% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 79% PQ 21% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 55% PQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 87% PQ 13% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 79% PQ 21% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | La Prairie



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 32.6% 43.1% 52.7% 33% ± 7% LIB 34.0% 24.0% 13.9% 18% ± 5% QS 5.9% 13.0% 13.1% 11% ± 4% PQ 26.3% 15.6% 11.4% 29% ± 6% CPQ 0.5% 1.1% 8.0% 7% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.