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Quebec

La Prairie


MNA: Christian Dubé (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ

Recent electoral history | La Prairie


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 27% ± 6% 26.3% 15.6% 11.4% LIB 27% ± 6% 34.0% 24.0% 13.9% CAQ 26% ± 6% 32.6% 43.1% 52.7% QS 9% ± 4% 5.9% 13.0% 13.1% CPQ 8% ± 3% 0.5% 1.1% 8.0%




338Canada projection for La Prairie


La Prairie 27% ± 6% PQ 27% ± 6%▲ LIB 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 9% ± 4%▼ QS 8% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% La Prairie 39%▼ PQ 35%▲ LIB 27%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | La Prairie

LIB 27% ± 6% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | La Prairie 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 36% PQ 25% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 32% PQ 28% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 32% PQ 31% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 34% PQ 29% LIB 19% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 33% PQ 29% LIB 18% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 36% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 12% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 33% PQ 28% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 32% PQ 30% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 31% PQ 31% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 32% PQ 29% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 33% PQ 27% LIB 22% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 32% PQ 27% LIB 23% QS 8% CPQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 34% PQ 26% LIB 22% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 35% PQ 27% LIB 21% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CAQ 34% PQ 26% LIB 22% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 27% CAQ 27% LIB 26% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 27% LIB 27% CAQ 26% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | La Prairie

LIB 35% PQ 39% CAQ 27% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 79% PQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 55% PQ 45% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 87% PQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 79% PQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 87% PQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 64% PQ 36% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 54% PQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 91% PQ 8% LIB 1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 85% PQ 13% LIB 2% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 95% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 95% PQ 5% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CAQ 94% PQ 6% LIB 1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 42% CAQ 30% LIB 28% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 39% LIB 35% CAQ 27% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader