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Abitibi-Ouest


MNA: Suzanne Blais (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Abitibi-Ouest 41% ± 8% PQ 27% ± 7% CAQ 11% ± 5% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 4% LIB CAQ 2022 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi-Ouest 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Abitibi-Ouest

LIB 8% ± 4% PQ 41% ± 8% CAQ 27% ± 7% QS 11% ± 5% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi-Ouest 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 40% CAQ 29% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 30% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 42% CAQ 29% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 28% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 41% CAQ 28% QS 13% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 42% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% CAQ 28% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 27% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 46% CAQ 25% QS 13% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 47% CAQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 25% QS 13% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 44% CAQ 25% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 43% CAQ 26% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 41% CAQ 27% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 41% CAQ 27% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Abitibi-Ouest

LIB <1% PQ 99% CAQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Abitibi-Ouest



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 14.1% 34.1% 46.7% 27% ± 7% PQ 42.2% 33.2% 20.8% 41% ± 8% QS 6.2% 16.6% 16.3% 11% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 10.3% 10% ± 4% LIB 34.7% 11.3% 5.2% 8% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%