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Quebec

Taillon


MNA: Lionel Carmant

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Taillon 45% ± 7%▲ PQ 20% ± 5%▼ CAQ 15% ± 5% LIB 12% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3%▼ CPQ CAQ 2022 41.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Taillon >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Taillon

LIB 15% ± 5% PQ 45% ± 7% CAQ 20% ± 5% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Taillon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 47% PQ 17% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 47% QS 16% PQ 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 45% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 46% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 46% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 45% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 45% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 45% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 45% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% LIB 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 45% PQ 15% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 45% PQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 45% PQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 45% PQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 44% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 44% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 45% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 43% CPQ 16% PQ 15% QS 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 15% PQ 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 15% PQ 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 15% PQ 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 44% CPQ 16% QS 15% PQ 15% LIB 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 42% PQ 18% CPQ 16% QS 14% LIB 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 41% PQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 41% PQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 41% PQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 41% PQ 19% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 43% PQ 18% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 43% PQ 18% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 7% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 41% PQ 21% CPQ 16% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 41% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 41% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 42% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 41% PQ 21% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 41% PQ 22% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 41% PQ 20% QS 19% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 41% PQ 23% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 41% PQ 23% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 39% PQ 25% QS 19% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 39% PQ 25% QS 20% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 39% PQ 25% QS 20% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 40% PQ 26% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 40% PQ 26% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 36% PQ 29% QS 18% LIB 10% CPQ 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 35% PQ 27% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 35% PQ 27% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 34% PQ 29% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 37% CAQ 26% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 41% CAQ 24% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 23% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 41% CAQ 25% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 45% CAQ 22% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 47% CAQ 20% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 48% CAQ 21% LIB 13% QS 12% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 46% CAQ 20% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 44% CAQ 22% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 45% CAQ 22% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% CAQ 24% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 22% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CAQ 20% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Taillon

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 84% PQ 16% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Taillon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 24.2% 33.8% 41.5% 20% ± 5% PQ 33.8% 28.1% 20.3% 45% ± 7% QS 11.1% 17.7% 18.9% 12% ± 4% LIB 30.0% 16.7% 11.6% 15% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.7% 6.5% 6% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.