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Quebec


Taillon


MNA: Lionel Carmant (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Safe PQ gain
Taillon 41% ± 7%▲ 24% ± 6%▼ 17% ± 5%▲ 12% ± 4%▼ 6% ± 3% CAQ 2022 41.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Taillon >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Taillon

LIB 12% ± 4% PQ 41% ± 7% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 17% ± 5% QCP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Taillon 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Taillon

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Taillon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 24.2% 33.8% 41.5% 24% ± 6% PQ 33.8% 28.1% 20.3% 41% ± 7% QS 11.1% 17.7% 18.9% 17% ± 5% LIB 30.0% 16.7% 11.6% 12% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 0.7% 6.5% 6% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%