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Quebec

Taillon


MNA: Lionel Carmant (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Taillon 42% ± 7%▼ PQ 21% ± 5%▲ CAQ 18% ± 5%▲ LIB 10% ± 4%▼ QS 7% ± 3%▲ CPQ CAQ 2022 41.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Taillon >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Taillon

LIB 18% ± 5% PQ 42% ± 7% CAQ 21% ± 5% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Taillon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 41% PQ 20% QS 19% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 41% PQ 23% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 41% PQ 23% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 39% PQ 25% QS 19% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 39% PQ 25% QS 20% LIB 11% CPQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 39% PQ 25% QS 20% LIB 12% CPQ 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 40% PQ 26% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 40% PQ 26% QS 18% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 36% PQ 29% QS 18% LIB 10% CPQ 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 35% PQ 27% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 35% PQ 27% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 34% PQ 29% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 37% CAQ 26% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 41% CAQ 24% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 42% CAQ 23% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 41% CAQ 25% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 45% CAQ 22% QS 15% LIB 12% CPQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 47% CAQ 20% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 48% CAQ 21% LIB 13% QS 12% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 46% CAQ 20% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 44% CAQ 22% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 45% CAQ 22% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 41% CAQ 24% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 22% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CAQ 20% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 46% CAQ 19% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 45% CAQ 20% LIB 15% QS 12% CPQ 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 42% CAQ 21% LIB 18% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Taillon

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 90% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 94% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 93% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 84% PQ 16% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Taillon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 24.2% 33.8% 41.5% 21% ± 5% PQ 33.8% 28.1% 20.3% 42% ± 7% QS 11.1% 17.7% 18.9% 10% ± 4% LIB 30.0% 16.7% 11.6% 18% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.7% 6.5% 7% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%