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Quebec

Bellechasse


MNA: Stéphanie Lachance (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
PCQ likely

Bellechasse 37% ± 8%▼ CPQ 27% ± 6%▲ PQ 23% ± 6%▼ CAQ 7% ± 3%▲ LIB 5% ± 2% QS CAQ 2022 45.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bellechasse 96%▼ CPQ 4%▲ PQ <1%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Bellechasse

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 5% ± 2% CPQ 37% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Bellechasse 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 33% CAQ 27% PQ 25% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 37% CAQ 28% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% CPQ 31% PQ 23% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 32% CAQ 31% PQ 23% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 32% CAQ 30% PQ 23% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 31% PQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 32% PQ 29% CAQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 33% PQ 27% CAQ 27% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 35% CAQ 26% PQ 26% LIB 6% QS 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 40% PQ 24% CAQ 23% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 39% CAQ 25% PQ 24% LIB 6% QS 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 39% CAQ 25% PQ 24% LIB 6% QS 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 37% PQ 27% CAQ 23% LIB 7% QS 5% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Bellechasse

LIB <1% PQ 4% CAQ <1% CPQ 96% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 78% CAQ 16% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 55% CAQ 32% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 55% CAQ 31% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% CPQ 45% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 56% CAQ 43% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 63% CAQ 31% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 68% CAQ 25% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 64% PQ 20% CAQ 16% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 68% PQ 25% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 78% PQ 11% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 92% CAQ 4% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Bellechasse



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.2% 53.8% 45.7% 23% ± 6% CPQ 1.2% 3.3% 35.3% 37% ± 8% PQ 13.3% 7.3% 8.8% 27% ± 6% QS 2.7% 7.5% 6.0% 5% ± 2% LIB 49.3% 27.2% 4.1% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%