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Quebec

Bellechasse


MNA: Stéphanie Lachance (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
PCQ likely gain
Bellechasse 35% ± 8%▲ CPQ 26% ± 6%▼ CAQ 26% ± 6%▼ PQ 6% ± 3%▲ LIB 5% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 45.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bellechasse 92%▲ CPQ 4%▼ CAQ 3%▼ PQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bellechasse

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 26% ± 6% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 5% ± 3% CPQ 35% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Bellechasse 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 46% CPQ 35% PQ 9% QS 6% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% PQ 10% QS 6% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% PQ 10% QS 6% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 28% PQ 12% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 28% PQ 12% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 39% CPQ 36% PQ 14% QS 6% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 39% CPQ 30% PQ 20% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 39% CPQ 30% PQ 20% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 38% CPQ 30% PQ 20% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 35% CAQ 34% PQ 18% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 35% CAQ 34% PQ 20% QS 6% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CPQ 34% CAQ 34% PQ 20% QS 6% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 35% CAQ 29% PQ 24% QS 7% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 35% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 7% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 33% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 33% CAQ 27% PQ 25% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 37% CAQ 28% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% CPQ 31% PQ 23% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 32% CAQ 31% PQ 23% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 32% CAQ 30% PQ 23% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 31% PQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 32% PQ 29% CAQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 33% PQ 27% CAQ 27% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 35% CAQ 26% PQ 26% LIB 6% QS 5% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Bellechasse

LIB <1% PQ 3% CAQ 4% CPQ 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 66% CPQ 34% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 90% CPQ 10% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 57% CAQ 43% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 59% CAQ 41% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CPQ 53% CAQ 46% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 82% CAQ 17% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 90% CAQ 6% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 85% CAQ 9% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 78% CAQ 16% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 55% CAQ 32% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 55% CAQ 31% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% CPQ 45% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 56% CAQ 43% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 63% CAQ 31% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 68% CAQ 25% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 64% PQ 20% CAQ 16% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 68% PQ 25% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 78% PQ 11% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 92% CAQ 4% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Bellechasse



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.2% 53.8% 45.7% 26% ± 6% CPQ 1.2% 3.3% 35.3% 35% ± 8% PQ 13.3% 7.3% 8.8% 26% ± 6% QS 2.7% 7.5% 6.0% 5% ± 3% LIB 49.3% 27.2% 4.1% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%