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Quebec

Bellechasse


MNA: Stéphanie Lachance

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
Bellechasse 31% ± 8%▼ CPQ 28% ± 7%▲ PQ 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 7% ± 3% QS 4% ± 2% LIB CAQ 2022 45.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bellechasse 64%▼ CPQ 20%▲ PQ 16%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bellechasse

LIB 4% ± 2% PQ 28% ± 7% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 31% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Bellechasse 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 46% CPQ 29% LIB 13% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 45% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 45% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 45% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 47% CPQ 29% LIB 12% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 45% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 45% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 5% PQ 4% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 32% LIB 11% QS 5% PQ 4% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 11% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% LIB 11% PQ 7% QS 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 46% CPQ 31% LIB 8% PQ 7% QS 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 46% CPQ 30% LIB 8% PQ 7% QS 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 46% CPQ 30% LIB 8% PQ 7% QS 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 45% CPQ 31% LIB 8% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 48% CPQ 30% LIB 8% QS 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 48% CPQ 30% LIB 8% QS 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% LIB 9% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 47% CPQ 30% LIB 8% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% LIB 8% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% LIB 9% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% LIB 9% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 48% CPQ 29% LIB 8% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 46% CPQ 35% PQ 9% QS 6% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% PQ 10% QS 6% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% CPQ 32% PQ 10% QS 6% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 28% PQ 12% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% CPQ 28% PQ 12% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 39% CPQ 36% PQ 14% QS 6% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 39% CPQ 30% PQ 20% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 39% CPQ 30% PQ 20% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 38% CPQ 30% PQ 20% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 35% CAQ 34% PQ 18% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 35% CAQ 34% PQ 20% QS 6% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CPQ 34% CAQ 34% PQ 20% QS 6% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 35% CAQ 29% PQ 24% QS 7% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 35% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 7% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 33% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 33% CAQ 27% PQ 25% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 37% CAQ 28% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 30% CAQ 28% PQ 26% QS 9% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 30% CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 31% CPQ 31% PQ 23% QS 7% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 32% CAQ 31% PQ 23% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 32% CAQ 30% PQ 23% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 29% PQ 26% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 31% PQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 7% LIB 4% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Bellechasse

LIB <1% PQ 20% CAQ 16% QS <1% CPQ 64% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 97% CPQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 96% CPQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 66% CPQ 34% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 90% CPQ 10% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 91% CPQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 57% CAQ 43% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 59% CAQ 41% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CPQ 53% CAQ 46% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 82% CAQ 17% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 90% CAQ 6% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 85% CAQ 9% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 78% CAQ 16% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 55% CAQ 32% PQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 55% CAQ 31% PQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% CPQ 45% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 56% CAQ 43% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 64% CAQ 35% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 63% CAQ 31% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 68% CAQ 25% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 64% PQ 20% CAQ 16% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Bellechasse



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.2% 53.8% 45.7% 27% ± 6% CPQ 1.2% 3.3% 35.3% 31% ± 8% PQ 13.3% 7.3% 8.8% 28% ± 7% QS 2.7% 7.5% 6.0% 7% ± 3% LIB 49.3% 27.2% 4.1% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.