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Quebec

La Peltrie


MNA: Éric Caire (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
PCQ likely gain
La Peltrie 35% ± 7%▲ CPQ 24% ± 6%▼ PQ 20% ± 5%▼ CAQ 13% ± 4%▲ LIB 7% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 44.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% La Peltrie 98%▲ CPQ 2%▼ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | La Peltrie

LIB 13% ± 4% PQ 24% ± 6% CAQ 20% ± 5% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 35% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | La Peltrie 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% PQ 10% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 45% CPQ 27% PQ 12% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 27% PQ 12% QS 9% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 23% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 32% CPQ 31% PQ 20% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 30% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 30% CPQ 26% PQ 25% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 30% CPQ 27% PQ 25% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 30% CAQ 30% PQ 23% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 30% CAQ 30% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 30% CPQ 30% PQ 23% QS 9% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 29% PQ 26% CAQ 25% QS 9% LIB 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 30% PQ 27% CAQ 24% QS 10% LIB 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 28% PQ 28% CAQ 22% QS 13% LIB 7% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 28% CPQ 28% CAQ 23% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 29% CPQ 27% CAQ 23% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 29% CPQ 26% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% LIB 14% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 28% CAQ 26% PQ 22% LIB 14% QS 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 28% CAQ 25% PQ 23% LIB 13% QS 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 29% PQ 25% CAQ 24% LIB 12% QS 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 31% PQ 25% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 30% PQ 27% CAQ 22% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 31% PQ 27% CAQ 20% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 31% PQ 26% CAQ 21% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 35% PQ 24% CAQ 20% LIB 13% QS 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | La Peltrie

LIB <1% PQ 2% CAQ <1% CPQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 62% CPQ 38% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 72% CPQ 19% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 74% CPQ 17% PQ 10% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 64% CPQ 28% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 52% CAQ 47% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 51% CAQ 47% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 53% CPQ 46% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 65% PQ 21% CAQ 14% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 73% PQ 23% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 53% PQ 45% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 51% CPQ 46% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 90% CAQ 6% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 66% CPQ 31% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 67% CPQ 30% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 47% CAQ 33% PQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 64% CAQ 31% PQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 70% CAQ 23% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 75% PQ 16% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 86% PQ 10% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 76% PQ 23% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 75% PQ 24% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 86% PQ 14% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | La Peltrie



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 50.3% 57.7% 44.4% 20% ± 5% CPQ 1.3% 4.8% 29.9% 35% ± 7% PQ 10.1% 7.5% 9.9% 24% ± 6% QS 3.4% 9.7% 8.9% 7% ± 3% LIB 33.8% 16.6% 5.7% 13% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%