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Quebec

La Peltrie


MNA: Éric Caire (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
PCQ safe gain
La Peltrie 40% ± 7%▲ CPQ 22% ± 5% PQ 19% ± 5% CAQ 12% ± 4% LIB 6% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 44.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% La Peltrie >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | La Peltrie

LIB 12% ± 4% PQ 22% ± 5% CAQ 19% ± 5% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 40% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | La Peltrie 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 28% CPQ 28% CAQ 23% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 32% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 29% CPQ 27% CAQ 23% QS 12% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 29% CPQ 26% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 26% CAQ 25% PQ 24% LIB 14% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 28% CAQ 26% PQ 22% LIB 14% QS 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 28% CAQ 25% PQ 23% LIB 13% QS 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 29% PQ 25% CAQ 24% LIB 12% QS 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 31% PQ 25% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 30% PQ 27% CAQ 22% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 31% PQ 27% CAQ 20% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 31% PQ 26% CAQ 21% LIB 11% QS 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 35% PQ 24% CAQ 20% LIB 13% QS 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 41% PQ 23% CAQ 17% LIB 12% QS 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 39% PQ 22% CAQ 19% LIB 12% QS 6% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 40% PQ 22% CAQ 19% LIB 12% QS 6% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | La Peltrie

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 51% CPQ 46% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 90% CAQ 6% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 66% CPQ 31% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 67% CPQ 30% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 47% CAQ 33% PQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 64% CAQ 31% PQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 70% CAQ 23% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 75% PQ 16% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 86% PQ 10% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 76% PQ 23% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 75% PQ 24% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 86% PQ 14% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | La Peltrie



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 50.3% 57.7% 44.4% 19% ± 5% CPQ 1.3% 4.8% 29.9% 40% ± 7% PQ 10.1% 7.5% 9.9% 22% ± 5% QS 3.4% 9.7% 8.9% 6% ± 3% LIB 33.8% 16.6% 5.7% 12% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%