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Quebec

Ungava


MNA: Denis Lamothe

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up LIB/PQ
Ungava 27% ± 10%▲ PQ 23% ± 10% LIB 18% ± 9% QS 17% ± 8%▼ CAQ 11% ± 7%▼ CPQ 2% ± 3% IND CAQ 2022 36.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ungava 68%▲ PQ 25%▼ LIB 4%▼ QS 2%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ungava

LIB 23% ± 10% PQ 27% ± 10% CAQ 17% ± 8% QS 18% ± 9% CPQ 11% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Ungava 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 37% LIB 24% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 38% LIB 23% QS 15% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 37% LIB 23% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 37% LIB 23% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 37% LIB 23% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 37% LIB 24% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 9% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 9% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 9% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 36% LIB 24% PQ 14% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 36% LIB 24% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 36% LIB 24% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 36% LIB 24% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 36% LIB 24% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 36% LIB 24% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 37% LIB 23% PQ 13% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 35% LIB 23% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 11% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 35% LIB 23% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 11% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 35% LIB 23% QS 14% PQ 14% CPQ 11% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 36% LIB 24% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 11% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 33% LIB 20% PQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 34% PQ 19% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 34% PQ 18% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 34% PQ 19% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 34% LIB 19% PQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 11% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 37% LIB 19% PQ 17% QS 16% CPQ 11% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 37% LIB 20% PQ 17% QS 15% CPQ 11% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 34% PQ 20% LIB 19% QS 15% CPQ 11% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 35% PQ 20% LIB 19% QS 15% CPQ 11% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 35% PQ 20% LIB 19% QS 15% CPQ 11% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 35% PQ 20% LIB 19% QS 15% CPQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 35% PQ 20% LIB 19% QS 15% CPQ 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 30% PQ 24% LIB 22% QS 18% CPQ 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 36% QS 24% LIB 18% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 36% QS 24% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 36% QS 24% LIB 18% PQ 14% CPQ 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 34% QS 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 34% QS 27% LIB 17% PQ 15% CPQ 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 31% QS 26% PQ 21% LIB 17% CPQ 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 31% QS 25% PQ 22% LIB 17% CPQ 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 31% QS 25% PQ 22% LIB 17% CPQ 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 33% QS 24% PQ 19% LIB 15% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 31% QS 23% LIB 18% PQ 17% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 31% QS 23% LIB 18% PQ 17% CPQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 28% QS 23% PQ 22% LIB 18% CPQ 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 24% CAQ 24% QS 24% LIB 19% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 26% QS 25% CAQ 23% LIB 18% CPQ 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 27% QS 25% LIB 20% CAQ 19% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 27% QS 23% CAQ 21% LIB 19% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 26% QS 24% CAQ 22% LIB 20% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 27% QS 24% CAQ 20% LIB 20% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 27% LIB 24% QS 21% CAQ 20% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 26% LIB 25% CAQ 19% QS 19% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 26% LIB 25% CAQ 20% QS 19% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 27% LIB 24% QS 20% CAQ 19% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 24% LIB 23% QS 20% CAQ 20% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 25% LIB 23% CAQ 19% QS 18% CPQ 12% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 27% LIB 23% QS 18% CAQ 17% CPQ 11% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Ungava

LIB 25% PQ 68% CAQ 2% QS 4% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 97% LIB 3% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 99% LIB 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 98% LIB 2% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 97% LIB 3% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 97% LIB 3% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 97% LIB 3% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 97% LIB 3% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 97% LIB 3% PQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 97% LIB 3% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 97% LIB 3% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 97% LIB 3% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 97% LIB 3% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 98% LIB 2% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 98% LIB 2% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 96% LIB 4% QS <1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 99% LIB 1% PQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB 1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 79% PQ 14% LIB 6% QS 1% CPQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 96% QS 4% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 93% QS 7% LIB 1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 93% QS 7% LIB 1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 83% QS 17% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 81% QS 18% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 71% QS 23% PQ 5% LIB 1% CPQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 72% QS 21% PQ 7% LIB <1% CPQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 73% QS 21% PQ 6% LIB <1% CPQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 86% QS 12% PQ 1% LIB <1% CPQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 83% QS 15% LIB 1% PQ 1% CPQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 83% QS 15% LIB 1% PQ 1% CPQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 64% QS 20% PQ 13% LIB 3% CPQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 34% CAQ 30% QS 30% LIB 6% CPQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 48% QS 31% CAQ 19% LIB 3% CPQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 52% QS 36% LIB 6% CAQ 6% CPQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 61% QS 24% CAQ 10% LIB 6% CPQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 47% QS 30% CAQ 15% LIB 8% CPQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 58% QS 29% CAQ 7% LIB 7% CPQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 55% LIB 31% QS 9% CAQ 5% CPQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 49% LIB 41% CAQ 6% QS 4% CPQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 52% LIB 36% CAQ 7% QS 5% CPQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 57% LIB 30% QS 7% CAQ 6% CPQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 43% LIB 33% QS 13% CAQ 11% CPQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 52% LIB 33% CAQ 8% QS 6% CPQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 68% LIB 25% QS 4% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Ungava



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 16.5% 26.5% 36.3% 17% ± 8% QS 4.7% 16.5% 24.2% 18% ± 9% LIB 42.3% 24.9% 18.2% 23% ± 10% PQ 33.0% 26.0% 12.6% 27% ± 10% CPQ 0.0% 2.2% 8.8% 11% ± 7% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.