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Quebec

Nicolet-Bécancour


MNA: Donald Martel

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Nicolet-Bécancour 37% ± 7%▲ PQ 30% ± 7%▼ CAQ 17% ± 6%▼ CPQ 8% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nicolet-Bécancour 91%▲ PQ 9%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nicolet-Bécancour

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 37% ± 7% CAQ 30% ± 7% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ 17% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Nicolet-Bécancour 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 61% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 61% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 59% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 59% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 59% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 59% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 9% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 56% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 57% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 57% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 57% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 57% CPQ 17% QS 10% PQ 8% LIB 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 54% CPQ 17% PQ 11% QS 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 54% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 54% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 55% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 55% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 58% CPQ 17% QS 11% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 57% CPQ 17% QS 10% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 55% CPQ 17% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 56% CPQ 17% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 56% CPQ 17% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 56% CPQ 16% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 56% CPQ 16% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 56% CPQ 16% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 22% PQ 17% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 20% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% CPQ 20% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 47% PQ 22% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 47% PQ 22% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 27% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% PQ 25% CPQ 20% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% PQ 25% CPQ 20% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 37% PQ 29% CPQ 18% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 34% CAQ 30% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 34% PQ 31% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 33% PQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 18% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 32% PQ 31% CPQ 19% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 33% PQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 32% PQ 32% CPQ 19% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 19% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 30% CPQ 17% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Nicolet-Bécancour

LIB <1% PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 56% PQ 44% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 76% CAQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 51% PQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 73% PQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 55% PQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 54% PQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 55% PQ 45% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 59% PQ 41% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 53% CAQ 47% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 56% PQ 44% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 62% CAQ 38% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Nicolet-Bécancour



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.6% 55.3% 47.1% 30% ± 7% CPQ 1.2% 2.0% 22.2% 17% ± 6% PQ 22.3% 15.7% 17.2% 37% ± 7% QS 7.9% 12.3% 8.8% 8% ± 4% LIB 27.8% 12.6% 4.7% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.