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Quebec

Nicolet-Bécancour


MNA: Donald Martel (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning PQ gain
Nicolet-Bécancour 34% ± 7%▼ PQ 30% ± 7% CAQ 19% ± 6%▲ CPQ 8% ± 3%▲ LIB 7% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nicolet-Bécancour 79%▼ PQ 21%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nicolet-Bécancour

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 34% ± 7% CAQ 30% ± 7% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 19% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Nicolet-Bécancour 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% CPQ 22% PQ 17% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 20% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% CPQ 20% PQ 20% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 47% PQ 22% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 47% PQ 22% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 27% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% PQ 25% CPQ 20% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% PQ 25% CPQ 20% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 37% PQ 29% CPQ 18% QS 9% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 17% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 34% CAQ 30% CPQ 18% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 34% PQ 31% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 33% PQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 18% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 32% PQ 31% CPQ 19% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 33% PQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 18% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 32% PQ 32% CPQ 19% QS 9% LIB 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 33% CAQ 32% CPQ 19% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 30% CPQ 17% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 28% CPQ 18% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 35% CAQ 30% CPQ 18% QS 8% LIB 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 34% CAQ 30% CPQ 19% LIB 8% QS 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Nicolet-Bécancour

LIB <1% PQ 79% CAQ 21% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 97% PQ 3% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 96% PQ 4% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 96% PQ 4% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 92% PQ 8% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 75% PQ 25% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 56% PQ 44% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 76% CAQ 24% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 51% PQ 49% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 73% PQ 27% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 55% PQ 45% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 54% PQ 46% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 55% PQ 45% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 59% PQ 41% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 53% CAQ 47% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 56% PQ 44% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 62% CAQ 38% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 91% CAQ 9% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 96% CAQ 4% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 83% CAQ 17% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 79% CAQ 21% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Nicolet-Bécancour



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.6% 55.3% 47.1% 30% ± 7% CPQ 1.2% 2.0% 22.2% 19% ± 6% PQ 22.3% 15.7% 17.2% 34% ± 7% QS 7.9% 12.3% 8.8% 7% ± 3% LIB 27.8% 12.6% 4.7% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%