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Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: February 6, 2025

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection13.1% ± 2.3%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection9 [4-12]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.3 seat/% 9 [4-12] 13% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 6, 2025

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 10.8% 2022 12.9% 13.1% ± 2.3% Max. 15.4% Probabilities % CPQ

Seat projection | February 6, 2025

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2022 0 seats Min. 4 9 Max. 12 Probabilities % CPQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: February 6, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. La Peltrie PCQ likely gain 98%
2. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 96%
3. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 94%
4. Bellechasse PCQ likely gain 92%
5. Chauveau PCQ likely gain 91%
6. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely gain 90%
7. Portneuf PCQ leaning gain 82%
8. Montmorency PCQ leaning gain 75%
9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 56%
10. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 29%
11. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 4%
12. Charlesbourg Likely PQ gain 2%
13. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain 1%
14. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ 1%
15. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 1%