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Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: December 8, 2024

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection12.2% ± 2.2%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection7 [1-11]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.7 seat/% 7 [1-11] 12% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 8, 2024

7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 10.0% ▼ 12.2% ± 2.2% ▼ 2022 12.9% Max. 14.4% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ

Seat projection | December 8, 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 0 seats Min. 1 ▼ 7 ▼ Max. 11 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: December 8, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 95%
2. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 91%
3. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 86%
4. Bellechasse PCQ leaning gain 78%
5. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 69%
6. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 60%
7. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CPQ 49%
8. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 38%
9. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 21%
10. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 14%
11. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain 1%