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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: October 26, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202620.7%
Current vote projection21.9% ± 3.0%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection19 [15-23]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 26, 2026 30 25 20 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2026 1.1 seat/% [15-23] 22% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | October 26, 2026

15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 18.9% ▼ 21.9% ± 3.0% ▼ Max. 24.8% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ October 26, 2026

Seat projection | October 26, 2026

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 15 ▼ 19 ▼ Max. 23 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ October 26, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Bellechasse PCQ safe 1 BELL 2. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 2 BEAN 3. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 3 BEAS 4. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ safe 4 LOTF 5. Portneuf PCQ safe 5 PORT 6. La Peltrie PCQ safe 6 LAPE 7. Chauveau PCQ safe 7 CHAU 8. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ safe 8 CHCH 9. Montmorency PCQ safe 9 MOMO 10. Côte-du-Sud PCQ safe 10 CÔDS 11. Lévis PCQ safe 11 LEVI 12. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ likely 12 VALR 13. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré PCQ likely 13 CXCB 14. Charlesbourg PCQ likely 14 CHAR 15. Nicolet-Bécancour PCQ likely 15 NICO 16. Mégantic PCQ likely 16 MEGA 17. Arthabaska-L’Érable PCQ likely 17 ARTH 18. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CPQ 18 LHEB 19. Champlain Toss up PQ/CPQ 19 CHPN 20. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CPQ 20 DRUM 21. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 21 LVSM 22. Maskinongé Leaning PQ 22 MASK 23. Huntingdon Leaning PQ 23 HUNT 24. Richmond Leaning PQ 24 RCHM 25. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 25 MLGL 26. Dubuc Likely PQ 26 DUBU 27. Jean-Lesage QS likely 27 JLES 28. Roberval Likely PQ 28 ROBV 29. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 29 DAJO 30. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 30 ABIE 31. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ 31 PAPI 32. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ 32 TRIV 33. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 33 RDLT 34. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 34 STFR 35. Rousseau Likely PQ 35 ROUS 36. Argenteuil Likely PQ 36 ARGE 37. Iberville Safe PQ 37 IBER 38. Ungava Likely PQ 38 UNGA 39. Bellefeuille Safe PQ 39 BELF 40. Les Plaines Safe PQ 40 LPLA 41. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 41 STJR 42. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 42 LASJ 43. Berthier Safe PQ 43 BRTH 44. Mirabel Safe PQ 44 MIRA 45. Duplessis Safe PQ 45 DUPL 46. Prévost Safe PQ 46 PREV 47. Labelle Safe PQ 47 LABL 48. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 48 DAMC 49. Richelieu Safe PQ 49 RCHL 50. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ 50 ROUY 51. Jonquière Likely PQ 51 JONQ 52. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 52 CHIC 53. L’Assomption Safe PQ 53 LASS 54. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 54 ABIO 55. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 55 STHY 56. Granby Safe PQ 56 GRBY 57. Chomedey Safe LIB 57 CHOM 58. Joliette Safe PQ 58 JOLI 59. Soulanges Likely LIB 59 SOUL 60. Gatineau Safe LIB 60 GATI 61. Masson Safe PQ 61 MASS 62. Fabre Safe LIB 62 FABR 63. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 63 STJN 64. Chapleau Safe LIB 64 CHAP 65. Brome-Missisquoi Leaning LIB 65 BROM 66. Blainville Likely PQ 66 BLAI 67. Beauharnois Safe PQ 67 BEAU 68. Sanguinet Safe PQ 68 SANG 69. Terrebonne Safe PQ 69 TERR 70. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 70 JTAL 71. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ 71 DMON 72. Verchères Safe PQ 72 VERC 73. Chambly Safe PQ 73 CHBY 74. Bertrand Safe PQ 74 BERT 75. Groulx Likely PQ 75 GROU 76. Borduas Safe PQ 76 BORD 77. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 77 BALD 78. Nelligan Safe LIB 78 NELL 79. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 79 VAUD 80. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 80 RENE 81. La Prairie Toss up LIB/PQ 81 LAPR 82. Orford Likely LIB 82 ORFO 83. Rimouski Safe PQ 83 RIMO 84. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB 84 STRO 85. Repentigny Safe PQ 85 REPE 86. Vachon Toss up LIB/PQ 86 VACH 87. LaFontaine Safe LIB 87 LAFO 88. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 88 MAMA 89. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 89 VIMO 90. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 90 MILI 91. Châteauguay Likely LIB 91 CHAT 92. La Pinière Safe LIB 92 LAPI 93. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 93 STLR 94. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 94 PATR 95. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 95 LVDR 96. Taschereau QS likely 96 TASH 97. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 97 MARG 98. Pontiac Safe LIB 98 PONT 99. Hull Safe LIB 99 HULL 100. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 100 JACA 101. Marie-Victorin Likely PQ 101 MVIC 102. Taillon Leaning PQ 102 TAIL 103. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ/QS 103 SHER 104. Marquette Safe LIB 104 MARQ 105. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 105 WSTL 106. Bonaventure Safe PQ 106 BONA 107. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 107 ANLR 108. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 108 BOUS 109. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 109 JMVI 110. Acadie Safe LIB 110 ACAD 111. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 111 LAPO 112. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 112 MROU 113. Montarville Toss up LIB/PQ 113 MTRV 114. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 114 NODG 115. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 115 CAML 116. Gaspé Safe PQ 116 GASP 117. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 117 SHSA 118. Viau Likely LIB 118 VIAU 119. Verdun Leaning LIB 119 VERD 120. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/QS 120 MAUR 121. Rosemont QS likely 121 ROSE 122. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS safe 122 HOMA 123. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 123 SMSJ 124. Laurier-Dorion QS safe 124 LAUD 125. Gouin QS safe 125 GOUI 126. Mercier QS safe 126 MERC 127. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 127 IDLM 338Canada Quebec projection Updated October 26, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Bellechasse
Éric Duhaime
 C PCQ safe
2.
Beauce-Nord
Patricia Drouin
 C PCQ safe
3.
Beauce-Sud
Jonathan Poulin
 C PCQ safe
4.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Renaud Labrecque
 C PCQ safe
5.
Portneuf
Marcel Bouchard
 C PCQ safe
6.
La Peltrie
Maïté Blanchette Vézina
 C PCQ safe
7.
Chauveau
Karim Elayoubi
 C PCQ safe
8.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Dominique Dumas
 C PCQ safe
9.
Montmorency
Marie-Josée Hélie
 C PCQ safe
10.
Côte-du-Sud
Frédéric Poulin
 C PCQ safe
11.
Lévis
Karine Laflamme
 C PCQ safe
12.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Patrick Paquet
 C PCQ likely
13.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Caroline Simard
 C PCQ likely
14.
Charlesbourg
Éloïse Coulombe
 C PCQ likely
15.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Guillaume Langlois
 C PCQ likely
16.
Mégantic
Jimmy Gagnon
 C PCQ likely
17.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Tarek Henoud
 C PCQ likely
18.
Louis-Hébert
Marcos Archambault
 C Toss up PQ/CPQ
19.
Champlain
Adriana Szalontai
 C Toss up PQ/CPQ
20.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Charles Page
 PQ Toss up PQ/CPQ
21.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
 PQ Leaning PQ
22.
Maskinongé
Isabelle Blais
 PQ Leaning PQ
23.
Huntingdon
Frédéric Laplante
 PQ Leaning PQ
24.
Richmond
Bernard Sévigny
 PQ Leaning PQ
25.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Natalie Bisaillon
 PQ Likely PQ
26.
Dubuc
Émile Simard
 PQ Likely PQ
27.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS QS likely
28.
Roberval
Isabelle Thibeault
 PQ Likely PQ
29.
Daniel-Johnson
Nathalie Boisclair
 PQ Likely PQ
30.
Abitibi-Est
Stéphane Tremblay
 PQ Likely PQ
31.
Papineau
Isabelle Millette
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
32.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Pellerin
 PQ Likely PQ
33.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
Ariane Boyer
 PQ Likely PQ
34.
Saint-François
Sylvie Tanguay
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
35.
Rousseau
Mathieu Lebrun
 PQ Likely PQ
36.
Argenteuil
Pierre Nantel
 PQ Likely PQ
37.
Iberville
Camille Pellerin-Forget
 PQ Safe PQ
38.
Ungava
Sonia Caron
 PQ Likely PQ
39.
Bellefeuille
Audrey Bujold
 PQ Safe PQ
40.
Les Plaines
Dieudonné Ella Oyono
 PQ Safe PQ
41.
Saint-Jérôme
Sandrine Michon
 PQ Safe PQ