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Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: March 21, 2024

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection10.7% ± 2.3%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection5 [0-9]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% Vote efficiency | QCP 338Canada ©2023 1.6 seat/% 5 [0-9] 11% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 21, 2024

6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 8.4% ▼ 10.7% ± 2.3% ▼ Max. 13.0% ▼ 2022 12.9% Probabilities % QCP

Seat projection | March 21, 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 0 ▼ 2022 0 seats 5 ▼ Max. 9 ▼ Probabilities % QCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: March 21, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 92%
2. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 91%
3. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/QCP 64%
4. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 55%
5. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 45%
6. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 32%
7. La Peltrie Toss up PQ/QCP 31%
8. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 14%
9. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 8%
10. Montmorency Likely PQ gain 2%
11. Arthabaska Leaning CAQ hold 1%