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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: August 6, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection13.3% ± 2.1%
Current number of MNA's1
Current seat projection9 [6-14]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 6, 2026 15 10 5 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% [6-14] 13% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 6, 2026

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.2% ▼ 2022 12.9% 13.3% ± 2.1% ▼ Max. 15.4% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ August 6, 2026

Seat projection | August 6, 2026

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 6 ▼ 9 ▼ Max. 14 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ August 6, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Bellechasse PCQ safe 1 BELL 2. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 2 BEAN 3. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 3 BEAS 4. La Peltrie PCQ likely 4 LAPE 5. Chauveau PCQ likely 5 CHAU 6. Portneuf PCQ likely 6 PORT 7. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 7 LOTF 8. Montmorency PCQ leaning 8 MOMO 9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 9 CHCH 10. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 10 LEVI 11. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 11 VALR 12. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 12 CODS 13. Mégantic Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ 13 MEGA 14. Charlesbourg Leaning PQ 14 CHAR 15. Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ 15 NICO 16. Louis-Hébert Leaning PQ 16 LHEB 17. Arthabaska-L’Érable Safe PQ 17 ARTH 18. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 18 JLES 19. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 19 CHPN 20. Richmond Leaning LIB 20 RCHM 21. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 21 CXCB 22. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 22 CHIC 23. Chomedey Safe LIB 23 CHOM 24. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 24 DRUM 25. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Leaning PQ 25 MLGL 26. Rousseau Likely PQ 26 ROUS 27. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 27 DAMC 28. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 28 LVSM 29. Fabre Safe LIB 29 FABR 30. Maskinongé Likely PQ 30 MASK 31. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 31 DAJO 32. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 32 VAUD 33. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 33 JTAL 34. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 34 LASJ 35. Duplessis Safe PQ 35 DUPL 36. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 36 PAPI 37. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 37 TASH 38. Soulanges Safe LIB 38 SOUL 39. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 39 TRIV 40. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 40 IBER 41. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 41 BELF 42. Sanguinet Leaning PQ 42 SANG 43. Les Plaines Likely PQ 43 LPLA 44. Huntingdon Likely LIB 44 HUNT 45. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 45 VIMO 46. Mirabel Leaning PQ 46 MIRA 47. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 47 BALD 48. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 48 RDLT 49. Nelligan Safe LIB 49 NELL 50. Argenteuil Safe PQ 50 ARGE 51. Roberval Safe PQ 51 ROBV 52. Jonquière Safe PQ 52 JONQ 53. Chapleau Leaning LIB 53 CHAP 54. Dubuc Safe PQ 54 DUBU 55. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 55 GRBY 56. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 56 ABIE 57. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 57 BROM 58. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 58 STFR 59. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 59 StLR 60. Châteauguay Safe LIB 60 CHAT 61. Acadie Safe LIB 61 ACAD 62. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 62 StRO 63. Gatineau Safe LIB 63 GATI 64. LaFontaine Safe LIB 64 LAFO 65. Blainville Leaning PQ 65 BLAI 66. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 66 BEAU 67. Berthier Safe PQ 67 BRTH 68. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 68 ABIO 69. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 69 MILI 70. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 70 MARG 71. Prévost Safe PQ 71 PREV 72. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 72 LVDR 73. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 73 DMON 74. Vachon Leaning PQ 74 VACH 75. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 75 RENE 76. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 76 StJR 77. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 77 StHY 78. La Pinière Safe LIB 78 LAPI 79. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 79 JACA 80. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 80 JMVI 81. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 81 LAPR 82. Groulx Leaning PQ 82 GROU 83. Richelieu Likely PQ 83 RCHL 84. L’Assomption Leaning PQ 84 LASS 85. Labelle Safe PQ 85 LABL 86. Marquette Safe LIB 86 MARQ 87. Bertrand Safe PQ 87 BERT 88. Masson Likely PQ 88 MASS 89. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 89 WSTL 90. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 90 CHBY 91. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 91 ROUY 92. Pontiac Safe LIB 92 PONT 93. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 93 UNGA 94. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 94 BOUS 95. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 95 StJN 96. Joliette Safe PQ 96 JOLI 97. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 97 NODG 98. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 98 MROU 99. Borduas Leaning CAQ 99 BORD 100. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 100 MAMA 101. Verchères Likely PQ 101 VERC 102. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 102 ANLR 103. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 103 MVIC 104. Hull Safe LIB 104 HULL 105. Repentigny Likely PQ 105 REPE 106. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 106 PATR 107. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 107 CAML 108. Taillon Likely PQ 108 TAIL 109. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 109 LAPO 110. Gaspé Safe PQ 110 GASP 111. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 111 SHER 112. Bonaventure Safe PQ 112 BONA 113. Viau Safe LIB 113 VIAU 114. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Likely LIB 114 SHSA 115. Verdun Safe LIB 115 VERD 116. Laurier-Dorion Likely LIB 116 LAUD 117. Rimouski Safe PQ 117 RIMO 118. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 118 MTRV 119. Orford Likely LIB 119 ORFO 120. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 120 HOMA 121. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 121 ROSE 122. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/PQ 122 MAUR 123. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 123 SMSJ 124. Mercier QS likely 124 MERC 125. Terrebonne Likely PQ 125 TERR 126. Gouin QS safe 126 GOUI 127. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 127 IDLM 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 6, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
2.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ safe
3.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ safe
4.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
5.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
6.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
7.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ likely
8.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
9.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ leaning
10.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
11.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
12.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Leaning PQ
13.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
14.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Leaning PQ
15.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Leaning PQ
16.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Leaning PQ
17.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Safe PQ
18.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
19.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
20.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Leaning LIB