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Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: June 27, 2025

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection13.4% ± 2.1%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection9 [6-13]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025 20 15 10 5 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.4 seat/% 9 [6-13] 13% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 27, 2025

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.4% 2022 12.9% 13.4% ± 2.1% Max. 15.5% Probabilities % CPQ

Seat projection | June 27, 2025

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 6 9 Max. 13 Probabilities % CPQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: June 27, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe >99%
2. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe >99%
3. Bellechasse PCQ likely >99%
4. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 99%
5. Chauveau PCQ likely 99%
6. La Peltrie PCQ likely 98%
7. Portneuf PCQ leaning 88%
8. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 76%
9. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 51%
10. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CPQ 49%
11. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CPQ 39%
12. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 22%
13. Lévis Likely PQ 3%
14. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 3%
15. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 2%
16. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ 2%