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Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: October 4, 2024

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection12.7% ± 2.5%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection6 [1-10]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 4, 2024 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.6 seat/% 6 [1-10] 13% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | October 4, 2024

7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 10.2% ▼ 12.7% ± 2.5% ▼ 2022 12.9% Max. 15.3% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ

Seat projection | October 4, 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 0 seats Min. 1 ▼ 6 ▼ Max. 10 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: October 4, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 95%
2. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 92%
3. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 86%
4. Bellechasse Toss up CAQ/CPQ 68%
5. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 66%
6. Chauveau Toss up CAQ/CPQ 45%
7. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 45%
8. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 43%
9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 12%
10. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ 4%
11. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 4%
12. Mégantic Leaning CAQ hold 1%