logo
logo
Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: June 17, 2024

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection11.2% ± 2.3%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection6 [0-10]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.8 seat/% 6 [0-10] 11% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 17, 2024

6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 9.0% ▼ 11.2% ± 2.3% ▼ 2022 12.9% Max. 13.5% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ

Seat projection | June 17, 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 0 ▼ 2022 0 seats 6 ▼ Max. 10 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: June 17, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 93%
2. Beauce-Sud PCQ leaning gain 89%
3. La Peltrie Toss up CAQ/CPQ 70%
4. Bellechasse Toss up CAQ/CPQ 64%
5. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 58%
6. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 45%
7. Chauveau Toss up CAQ/CPQ 44%
8. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 27%
9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Leaning CAQ hold 13%
10. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 3%