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Quebec

Quebec Conservative Party





Last update: June 19, 2025

LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection13.3% ± 2.0%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection8 [5-12]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 19, 2025 15 10 5 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.2 seat/% 8 [5-12] 13% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 19, 2025

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.3% 2022 12.9% 13.3% ± 2.0% Max. 15.3% Probabilities % CPQ

Seat projection | June 19, 2025

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 5 8 Max. 12 Probabilities % CPQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party


Last update: June 19, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe >99%
2. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe >99%
3. Bellechasse PCQ likely >99%
4. Chauveau PCQ likely 99%
5. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 98%
6. La Peltrie PCQ likely 96%
7. Portneuf PCQ leaning 86%
8. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 73%
9. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CPQ 49%
10. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 46%
11. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 26%
12. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 11%
13. Lévis Likely PQ 2%
14. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 2%
15. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 1%
16. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ 1%