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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: February 3, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection14.9% ± 2.5%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection8 [4-13]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 3, 2026 15 10 5 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% [4-13] 15% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | February 3, 2026

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 12.4% 2022 12.9% 14.9% ± 2.5% Max. 17.4% Probabilities % CPQ February 3, 2026

Seat projection | February 3, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 0 seats Min. 4 8 Max. 13 Probabilities % CPQ February 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Conservative Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Samuel Poulin
CA PCQ safe
2.
Luc Provençal
CA PCQ safe
3.
Isabelle Lecours
CA PCQ likely
4.
Stéphanie Lachance
CA PCQ likely
5.
Sylvain Lévesque
CA PCQ leaning
6.
Éric Caire
CA PCQ leaning
7.
Vincent Caron
CA PCQ leaning
8.
François Jacques
CA PCQ leaning
9.
Martine Biron
CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
10.
Jean-François Simard
CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
11.
Mathieu Rivest
CA Leaning PQ
12.
Alex Boissonneault
PQ Likely PQ
13.
Bernard Drainville
CA Likely PQ
14.
Donald Martel
CA Likely PQ
15.
Mario Asselin
CA Likely PQ
16.
Jonatan Julien
CA Likely PQ
17.
Sonia LeBel
CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
18.
André Bachand
CA Leaning LIB
19.
Sébastien Schneeberger
CA Likely PQ
20.
Denis Lamothe
CA Toss up LIB/PQ
21. CA Safe PQ
22.
André Lamontagne
CA Likely PQ