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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: September 21, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection15.9% ± 2.4%
Current number of MNA's1
Current seat projection14 [8-18]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 21, 2026 20 15 10 5 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2026 1.9 seat/% [8-18] 16% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | September 21, 2026

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 12.9% Min. 13.5% ▼ 15.9% ± 2.4% ▼ Max. 18.3% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ September 21, 2026

Seat projection | September 21, 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 8 ▼ 14 ▼ Max. 18 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ September 21, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 1 BEAN 2. Bellechasse PCQ safe 2 BELL 3. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 3 BEAS 4. La Peltrie PCQ safe 4 LAPE 5. Portneuf PCQ likely 5 PORT 6. Chauveau PCQ likely 6 CHAU 7. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 7 LOTF 8. Montmorency PCQ likely 8 MOMO 9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 9 CHCH 10. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ leaning 10 VALR 11. Charlesbourg PCQ leaning 11 CHAR 12. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 12 LEVI 13. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CPQ 13 CÔDS 14. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 14 MEGA 15. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CPQ 15 NICO 16. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ 16 DRUM 17. Arthabaska-L’Érable Leaning PQ 17 ARTH 18. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Leaning PQ 18 MLGL 19. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 19 LHEB 20. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely PQ 20 CXCB 21. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 21 JLES 22. Champlain Likely PQ 22 CHPN 23. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 23 PAPI 24. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 24 RCHM 25. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 25 LVSM 26. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 26 UNGA 27. Daniel-Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 27 DAJO 28. Chomedey Safe LIB 28 CHOM 29. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 29 CHIC 30. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 30 DAMC 31. Nelligan Safe LIB 31 NELL 32. Maskinongé Likely PQ 32 MASK 33. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 33 BALD 34. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 34 JTAL 35. Rousseau Toss up PQ/CAQ 35 ROUS 36. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 36 VAUD 37. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 37 TRIV 38. Fabre Likely LIB 38 FABR 39. Soulanges Leaning LIB 39 SOUL 40. Duplessis Leaning PQ 40 DUPL 41. Taschereau QS leaning 41 TASH 42. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 42 HUNT 43. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 43 STLR 44. LaFontaine Safe LIB 44 LAFO 45. Gatineau Likely LIB 45 GATI 46. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 46 MARG 47. Berthier Likely PQ 47 BRTH 48. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 48 LASJ 49. Acadie Safe LIB 49 ACAD 50. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 50 JACA 51. Argenteuil Safe PQ 51 ARGE 52. Châteauguay Likely LIB 52 CHAT 53. Sanguinet Likely PQ 53 SANG 54. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 54 IBER 55. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 55 BELF 56. Jonquière Safe PQ 56 JONQ 57. Pontiac Safe LIB 57 PONT 58. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 58 CHAP 59. Roberval Safe PQ 59 ROBV 60. Dubuc Safe PQ 60 DUBU 61. Les Plaines Leaning PQ 61 LPLA 62. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 62 RDLT 63. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 63 BROM 64. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 64 ABIE 65. Saint-François Likely PQ 65 STFR 66. Vimont-Auteuil Likely LIB 66 VIMO 67. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 67 GRBY 68. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning PQ 68 ABIO 69. Marquette Safe LIB 69 MARQ 70. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 70 JMVI 71. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 71 MIRA 72. Prévost Safe PQ 72 PREV 73. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 73 NODG 74. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 74 WSTL 75. Sainte-Rose Toss up LIB/CAQ 75 STRO 76. René-Lévesque Leaning PQ 76 RENE 77. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 77 MROU 78. Saint-Jérôme Likely PQ 78 STJR 79. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 79 STHY 80. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning LIB 80 LVDR 81. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 81 BEAU 82. La Pinière Safe LIB 82 LAPI 83. Blainville Leaning PQ 83 BLAI 84. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 84 MILI 85. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/CAQ 85 ROUY 86. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 86 BOUS 87. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 87 ANLR 88. Labelle Safe PQ 88 LABL 89. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 89 DMON 90. Bertrand Safe PQ 90 BERT 91. Hull Safe LIB 91 HULL 92. Vachon Likely PQ 92 VACH 93. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 93 LAPR 94. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 94 LASS 95. Richelieu Likely PQ 95 RCHL 96. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 96 GROU 97. Masson Leaning PQ 97 MASS 98. Joliette Safe PQ 98 JOLI 99. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 99 PATR 100. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 100 MAMA 101. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 101 STJN 102. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 102 CHBY 103. Viau Likely LIB 103 VIAU 104. Borduas Leaning CAQ 104 BORD 105. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 105 CAML 106. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 106 MVIC 107. Repentigny Toss up PQ/CAQ 107 REPE 108. Sherbrooke Toss up PQ/QS 108 SHER 109. Verdun Leaning LIB 109 VERD 110. Gaspé Safe PQ 110 GASP 111. Verchères Likely PQ 111 VERC 112. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 112 SHSA 113. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 113 LAUD 114. Bonaventure Safe PQ 114 BONA 115. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 115 LAPO 116. Orford Leaning LIB 116 ORFO 117. Rimouski Safe PQ 117 RIMO 118. Taillon Safe PQ 118 TAIL 119. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 119 HOMA 120. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 120 ROSE 121. Maurice-Richard Likely PQ 121 MAUR 122. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 122 SMSJ 123. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 123 MTRV 124. Mercier QS safe 124 MERC 125. Gouin QS safe 125 GOUI 126. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 126 IDLM 127. Terrebonne Leaning PQ 127 TERR 338Canada Quebec projection Updated September 21, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ safe
2.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
3.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ safe
4.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ safe
5.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
6.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
7.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ likely
8.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ likely
9.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ leaning
10.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA PCQ leaning
11.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA PCQ leaning
12.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
13.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
14.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
15.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
16.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Leaning PQ
17.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Leaning PQ
18.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Leaning PQ
19.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
20.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Likely PQ
21.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
22.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Likely PQ
23.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
24.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
25.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Likely PQ
26.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
27.
Daniel-Johnson
André Lamontagne
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ