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Quebec

Deux-Montagnes


MNA: Benoit Charette (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely PQ gain
Deux-Montagnes 36% ± 7%▼ PQ 26% ± 6% CAQ 18% ± 5%▲ LIB 9% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Deux-Montagnes 97%▼ PQ 3%▲ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Deux-Montagnes

LIB 18% ± 5% PQ 36% ± 7% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Deux-Montagnes 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% PQ 17% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 46% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 46% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% PQ 21% QS 15% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% PQ 21% QS 15% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 45% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 47% PQ 22% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 47% PQ 22% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 43% PQ 25% QS 14% LIB 9% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 39% PQ 23% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 39% PQ 23% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 38% PQ 24% QS 13% LIB 12% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 33% PQ 29% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 32% PQ 32% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 35% CAQ 27% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 34% CAQ 30% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 37% CAQ 27% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 40% CAQ 25% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 26% LIB 14% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 39% CAQ 25% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 38% CAQ 28% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 39% CAQ 27% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 34% CAQ 29% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 37% CAQ 27% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 39% CAQ 25% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 40% CAQ 24% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 39% CAQ 26% LIB 15% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 36% CAQ 26% LIB 18% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Deux-Montagnes

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 74% PQ 26% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 74% CAQ 26% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Deux-Montagnes



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 34.2% 47.5% 47.1% 26% ± 6% PQ 32.0% 19.1% 17.2% 36% ± 7% QS 6.7% 14.5% 14.2% 9% ± 3% LIB 25.7% 13.4% 10.3% 18% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 9.8% 9% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%