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Quebec

Richmond


MNA: André Bachand

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Richmond 28% ± 6%▲ PQ 28% ± 6%▼ CAQ 17% ± 5% QS 13% ± 4%▼ CPQ 11% ± 4% LIB CAQ 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond 52%▲ PQ 48%▼ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Richmond

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 28% ± 6% CAQ 28% ± 6% QS 17% ± 5% CPQ 13% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richmond 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 50% QS 18% LIB 11% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 51% QS 18% LIB 10% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 50% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 50% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 50% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 10% PQ 8% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 50% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 49% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 49% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 47% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 48% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 48% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 48% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 48% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 46% QS 16% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 46% QS 17% CPQ 13% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 46% QS 17% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 46% QS 17% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 46% QS 17% CPQ 13% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 49% QS 16% CPQ 13% PQ 11% LIB 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 46% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 47% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 47% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 47% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 47% QS 16% PQ 14% CPQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 47% QS 16% PQ 14% CPQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% QS 20% CPQ 15% PQ 13% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% QS 20% PQ 15% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% QS 20% PQ 15% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 45% QS 22% PQ 16% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 45% QS 23% PQ 16% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 22% QS 21% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 23% QS 21% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 23% QS 21% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% QS 20% PQ 20% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 20% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% PQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 31% CAQ 27% QS 22% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 21% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 30% PQ 30% QS 21% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 30% PQ 29% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% PQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 30% PQ 27% QS 19% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% PQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 14% LIB 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 28% CAQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Richmond

LIB <1% PQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 83% PQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 57% PQ 43% QS 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 65% CAQ 34% QS 1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 79% CAQ 20% QS 1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 72% CAQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 53% PQ 47% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 68% CAQ 31% QS 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 54% PQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% PQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 69% PQ 31% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 77% PQ 23% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Richmond



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 22.0% 39.7% 46.8% 28% ± 6% QS 6.8% 18.9% 19.9% 17% ± 5% CPQ 0.5% 1.4% 14.7% 13% ± 4% PQ 27.6% 17.8% 12.8% 28% ± 6% LIB 41.2% 19.8% 5.4% 11% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.