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Quebec

Richmond


MNA: André Bachand (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Richmond 29% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 6%▼ PQ 16% ± 5%▼ QS 14% ± 4%▲ CPQ 13% ± 4%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond 66%▲ CAQ 34%▼ PQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Richmond

LIB 13% ± 4% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 29% ± 6% QS 16% ± 5% CPQ 14% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richmond 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 47% QS 20% CPQ 15% PQ 13% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 47% QS 20% PQ 15% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 47% QS 20% PQ 15% CPQ 13% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 45% QS 22% PQ 16% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 45% QS 23% PQ 16% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 41% PQ 22% QS 21% CPQ 10% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 42% PQ 23% QS 21% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 42% PQ 23% QS 21% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% QS 20% PQ 20% CPQ 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 41% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 41% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 14% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 32% PQ 28% QS 20% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 30% PQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 31% CAQ 27% QS 22% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 21% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 30% PQ 30% QS 21% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 30% PQ 29% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% PQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 30% PQ 27% QS 19% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% PQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 14% LIB 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 28% CAQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 29% CAQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 29% PQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 16% CPQ 14% LIB 13% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Richmond

LIB <1% PQ 34% CAQ 66% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 83% PQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 57% PQ 43% QS 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 65% CAQ 34% QS 1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 79% CAQ 20% QS 1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 72% CAQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 53% PQ 47% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 68% CAQ 31% QS 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 54% PQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% PQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 69% PQ 31% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 77% PQ 23% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 73% CAQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 61% PQ 39% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 66% PQ 34% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 22.0% 39.7% 46.8% 29% ± 6% QS 6.8% 18.9% 19.9% 16% ± 5% CPQ 0.5% 1.4% 14.7% 14% ± 4% PQ 27.6% 17.8% 12.8% 27% ± 6% LIB 41.2% 19.8% 5.4% 13% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%