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Quebec

Richmond


MNA: André Bachand (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Toss up LIB/PQ

Recent electoral history | Richmond


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 25% ± 6% 27.6% 17.8% 12.8% LIB 25% ± 6% 41.2% 19.8% 5.4% CAQ 20% ± 5% 22.0% 39.7% 46.8% CPQ 16% ± 4% 0.5% 1.4% 14.7% QS 13% ± 4% 6.8% 18.9% 19.9%




338Canada projection for Richmond


Richmond 25% ± 6%▼ PQ 25% ± 6%▲ LIB 20% ± 5%▼ CAQ 16% ± 4% CPQ 13% ± 4%▼ QS CAQ 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond 50%▼ PQ 48%▲ LIB 3%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond

LIB 25% ± 6% PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 20% ± 5% QS 13% ± 4% CPQ 16% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richmond 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 21% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 30% PQ 30% QS 21% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 22% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 31% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 11% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 30% PQ 29% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 31% PQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 12% LIB 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 30% PQ 27% QS 19% CPQ 13% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 30% PQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 14% LIB 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 28% CAQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 29% CAQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 29% PQ 28% QS 17% CPQ 13% LIB 11% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 29% PQ 27% QS 16% CPQ 14% LIB 13% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 27% PQ 27% CPQ 16% QS 14% LIB 14% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 29% PQ 26% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 13% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 30% PQ 27% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 12% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 30% CAQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 14% LIB 13% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 26% LIB 22% CAQ 22% CPQ 16% QS 14% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 25% LIB 25% CAQ 20% CPQ 16% QS 13% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Richmond

LIB 48% PQ 50% CAQ 3% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 72% CAQ 28% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 53% PQ 47% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 68% CAQ 31% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 54% PQ 46% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 54% PQ 46% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 75% PQ 25% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 69% PQ 31% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 77% PQ 23% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 75% PQ 25% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 52% CAQ 48% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 73% CAQ 27% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 61% PQ 39% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 66% PQ 34% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 52% PQ 48% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 74% PQ 26% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 74% PQ 26% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 79% CAQ 21% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 79% LIB 11% CAQ 10% CPQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 50% LIB 48% CAQ 3% CPQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader