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Quebec

Champlain


MNA: Sonia LeBel (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning CAQ hold
Champlain 35% ± 6% CAQ 30% ± 6%▼ PQ 16% ± 5% CPQ 9% ± 3%▲ LIB 8% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 55.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Champlain 86%▲ CAQ 14%▼ PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Champlain

LIB 9% ± 3% PQ 30% ± 6% CAQ 35% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Champlain 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 56% CPQ 18% PQ 12% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 56% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 56% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 9% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 56% PQ 15% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 56% PQ 15% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 50% PQ 22% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 52% PQ 23% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 52% PQ 23% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 54% PQ 20% CPQ 12% QS 9% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 49% PQ 19% CPQ 16% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 49% PQ 19% CPQ 16% QS 10% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 40% PQ 28% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 37% PQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 37% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 36% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 38% PQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 36% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 36% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 36% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 35% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 35% PQ 30% CPQ 16% LIB 9% QS 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Champlain

LIB <1% PQ 14% CAQ 86% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 80% PQ 20% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 69% PQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 79% PQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 93% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 74% PQ 26% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 74% PQ 26% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 76% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 79% PQ 21% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 69% PQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 76% PQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 82% PQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 86% PQ 14% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Champlain



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 28.7% 51.9% 55.9% 35% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 1.8% 17.6% 16% ± 5% PQ 28.7% 12.1% 12.0% 30% ± 6% QS 5.1% 13.0% 9.0% 8% ± 3% LIB 36.9% 18.6% 5.1% 9% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%