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Quebec

Champlain


MNA: Sonia LeBel (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ

Recent electoral history | Champlain


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 29% ± 6% 28.7% 12.1% 12.0% CAQ 28% ± 6% 28.7% 51.9% 55.9% CPQ 18% ± 5% 0.0% 1.8% 17.6% LIB 16% ± 5% 36.9% 18.6% 5.1% QS 7% ± 3% 5.1% 13.0% 9.0%




338Canada projection for Champlain


Champlain 29% ± 6%▼ PQ 28% ± 6%▼ CAQ 18% ± 5% CPQ 16% ± 5%▲ LIB 7% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 55.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Champlain 59%▼ PQ 41%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Champlain

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 29% ± 6% CAQ 28% ± 6% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Champlain 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 36% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 38% PQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 36% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 36% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 36% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 8% LIB 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 35% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 35% PQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 16% QS 9% LIB 7% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 35% PQ 30% CPQ 16% LIB 9% QS 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 34% PQ 30% CPQ 18% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 35% PQ 29% CPQ 17% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 35% PQ 29% CPQ 17% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 32% CAQ 32% CPQ 16% LIB 10% QS 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 30% CAQ 29% CPQ 18% LIB 14% QS 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 29% CAQ 28% CPQ 18% LIB 16% QS 7% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Champlain

LIB <1% PQ 59% CAQ 41% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 93% PQ 7% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 74% PQ 26% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 74% PQ 26% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 76% PQ 24% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 79% PQ 21% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 69% PQ 31% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 76% PQ 24% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 60% PQ 40% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 52% PQ 48% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 52% PQ 48% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 82% PQ 18% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 86% PQ 14% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CAQ 78% PQ 22% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 92% PQ 8% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 92% PQ 8% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 54% CAQ 46% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 65% CAQ 35% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 59% CAQ 41% CPQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader