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Quebec

Champlain


MNA: Sonia LeBel (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Champlain 35% ± 6%▼ CAQ 33% ± 6%▲ PQ 15% ± 5%▲ QCP 9% ± 3%▲ QS 7% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 55.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Champlain 69%▼ CAQ 31%▲ PQ <1% QCP Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Champlain

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 33% ± 6% CAQ 35% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% QCP 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Champlain 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP June 17, 2024

Odds of winning | Champlain

LIB <1% PQ 31% CAQ 69% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024

Recent electoral history | Champlain



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 28.7% 51.9% 55.9% 35% ± 6% QCP 0.0% 1.8% 17.6% 15% ± 5% PQ 28.7% 12.1% 12.0% 33% ± 6% QS 5.1% 13.0% 9.0% 9% ± 3% LIB 36.9% 18.6% 5.1% 7% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.