logo
logo
Quebec

Trois-Rivières


MNA: Jean Boulet (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Trois-Rivières 33% ± 6%▼ PQ 31% ± 6% CAQ 14% ± 4%▼ QS 11% ± 4%▲ CPQ 10% ± 4%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Trois-Rivières 68%▼ PQ 32%▲ CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Trois-Rivières

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 33% ± 6% CAQ 31% ± 6% QS 14% ± 4% CPQ 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Trois-Rivières 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 51% QS 16% PQ 14% CPQ 12% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 50% PQ 17% QS 16% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 50% PQ 17% QS 16% CPQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% QS 18% PQ 18% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% QS 19% PQ 18% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 44% PQ 25% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 45% PQ 26% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 45% PQ 26% QS 17% CPQ 7% LIB 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 48% PQ 22% QS 17% CPQ 8% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 44% PQ 21% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 44% PQ 21% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 39% PQ 27% QS 17% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 36% PQ 28% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 35% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 31% CAQ 31% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 33% PQ 31% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 34% PQ 30% QS 18% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 32% PQ 30% QS 19% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 34% PQ 31% QS 17% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 33% PQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 34% PQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 33% PQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 30% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 32% PQ 32% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 35% CAQ 30% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 36% CAQ 29% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 34% CAQ 31% QS 15% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 33% CAQ 31% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Trois-Rivières

LIB <1% PQ 68% CAQ 32% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 93% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 81% PQ 19% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 51% CAQ 49% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 81% PQ 19% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 65% PQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 69% PQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 70% PQ 30% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 74% PQ 26% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 62% PQ 38% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 54% PQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 84% CAQ 16% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 68% CAQ 32% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Trois-Rivières



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 23.7% 41.2% 50.8% 31% ± 6% QS 8.2% 17.3% 16.4% 14% ± 4% PQ 27.7% 15.4% 14.3% 33% ± 6% CPQ 0.7% 1.8% 12.3% 11% ± 4% LIB 38.9% 22.4% 5.5% 10% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%