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Quebec

Rousseau


MNA: Louis-Charles Thouin

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Rousseau 41% ± 7%▼ PQ 30% ± 7%▲ CAQ 12% ± 5% CPQ 10% ± 4% QS 4% ± 2% LIB CAQ 2022 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rousseau 97%▼ PQ 3%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Rousseau

LIB 4% ± 2% PQ 41% ± 7% CAQ 30% ± 7% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Rousseau 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 61% PQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 61% PQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 59% CPQ 12% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 59% CPQ 13% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 59% CPQ 13% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 59% CPQ 13% PQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 59% CPQ 13% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 59% CPQ 13% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 59% CPQ 13% PQ 13% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 58% PQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 59% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 59% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 59% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 58% CPQ 14% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 2% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 58% CPQ 14% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 2% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 58% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 2% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 58% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 2% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 58% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% LIB 2% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 59% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 9% LIB 2% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 57% PQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 58% PQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 58% PQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 58% PQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 58% PQ 15% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 55% PQ 19% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 55% PQ 19% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 55% PQ 19% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 55% PQ 19% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 55% PQ 18% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 58% PQ 18% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 58% PQ 18% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 55% PQ 20% QS 12% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 56% PQ 20% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 56% PQ 20% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 56% PQ 20% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 2% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 62% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 62% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 51% PQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 50% PQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 50% PQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% PQ 22% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% PQ 22% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 49% PQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 50% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 50% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 46% PQ 26% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 2% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 43% PQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 43% PQ 25% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 42% PQ 27% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 34% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 3% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 36% CAQ 33% QS 14% CPQ 13% LIB 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 37% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 3% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 35% PQ 35% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 43% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 39% CAQ 32% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 40% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 36% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 39% CAQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 41% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 42% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 41% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Rousseau

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 52% PQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 51% PQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 63% CAQ 37% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Rousseau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.5% 53.2% 50.6% 30% ± 7% PQ 39.9% 26.4% 17.9% 41% ± 7% CPQ 0.1% 1.0% 15.0% 12% ± 5% QS 5.5% 13.0% 13.1% 10% ± 4% LIB 15.0% 5.2% 3.5% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.