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Quebec

Rousseau


MNA: Louis-Charles Thouin (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe PQ

Recent electoral history | Rousseau


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 43% ± 8% 39.9% 26.4% 17.9% CAQ 24% ± 6% 38.5% 53.2% 50.6% CPQ 15% ± 5% 0.1% 1.0% 15.0% QS 8% ± 3% 5.5% 13.0% 13.1% LIB 7% ± 3% 15.0% 5.2% 3.5%




338Canada projection for Rousseau


Rousseau 43% ± 8%▼ PQ 24% ± 6% CAQ 15% ± 5% CPQ 8% ± 3% QS 7% ± 3%▲ LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rousseau >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Rousseau

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 43% ± 8% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Rousseau 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 35% PQ 35% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 43% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 41% CAQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 39% CAQ 32% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 40% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 36% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 11% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 39% CAQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 41% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 42% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 41% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% LIB 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 37% CAQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% LIB 6% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 8% LIB 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 37% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 8% LIB 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 42% CAQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 42% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 7% LIB 5% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 44% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 8% LIB 6% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 43% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% QS 8% LIB 7% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Rousseau

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 51% PQ 49% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 63% CAQ 37% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 77% CAQ 23% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader