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Quebec

Blainville


MNA: Mario Laframboise

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Leaning PQ gain
Blainville 34% ± 6%▲ PQ 30% ± 6%▼ CAQ 16% ± 5% LIB 11% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3%▼ CPQ CAQ 2022 49.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Blainville 82%▲ PQ 18%▼ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Blainville

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 34% ± 6% CAQ 30% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Blainville 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 58% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 58% QS 13% CPQ 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 56% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 57% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 57% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 56% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 56% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 56% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 56% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 56% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 56% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 56% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 56% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 55% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 55% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 55% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 55% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 55% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 56% CPQ 16% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 54% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 54% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 55% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 55% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 55% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% QS 14% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% QS 14% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% QS 14% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% QS 14% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 54% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 54% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 9% LIB 7% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 52% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 53% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 53% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 53% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 53% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 53% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 49% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 49% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 49% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 23% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 42% PQ 21% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 42% PQ 21% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 40% PQ 22% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 32% PQ 30% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 32% CAQ 31% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 35% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 36% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 36% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 35% CAQ 30% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 29% LIB 17% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 32% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 29% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Blainville

LIB <1% PQ 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 72% PQ 28% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 67% CAQ 33% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 81% PQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Blainville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.3% 48.3% 49.4% 30% ± 6% PQ 28.5% 13.6% 15.4% 34% ± 6% QS 6.5% 15.1% 14.0% 11% ± 4% LIB 30.9% 19.1% 11.0% 16% ± 5% CPQ 0.6% 0.0% 9.8% 8% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.