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Quebec

Blainville


MNA: Mario Laframboise (CAQ)

Latest projection: October 5, 2025
Likely PQ

Recent electoral history | Blainville


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 39% ± 7% 28.5% 13.6% 15.4% LIB 25% ± 6% 30.9% 19.1% 11.0% CAQ 19% ± 5% 33.3% 48.3% 49.4% CPQ 10% ± 3% 0.6% 0.0% 9.8% QS 5% ± 2% 6.5% 15.1% 14.0%




338Canada projection for Blainville


Blainville 39% ± 7%▼ PQ 25% ± 6%▼ LIB 19% ± 5%▲ CAQ 10% ± 3% CPQ 5% ± 2%▼ QS CAQ 2022 49.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Blainville >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | October 5, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Blainville

LIB 25% ± 6% PQ 39% ± 7% CAQ 19% ± 5% QS 5% ± 2% CPQ 10% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Blainville 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 5, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 36% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 36% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 35% CAQ 30% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 29% LIB 17% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 32% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 29% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 29% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 20% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 31% CAQ 30% LIB 20% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 20% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 36% CAQ 31% LIB 15% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 34% CAQ 30% LIB 17% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 35% CAQ 24% LIB 21% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 33% LIB 25% CAQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 34% LIB 25% CAQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 7% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 37% LIB 24% CAQ 21% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 39% LIB 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 40% LIB 26% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 39% LIB 25% CAQ 19% CPQ 10% QS 5% 2025-10-05 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Blainville

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 5, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 59% CAQ 41% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 95% CAQ 5% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 87% CAQ 13% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 87% CAQ 13% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 54% CAQ 46% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 67% CAQ 33% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 81% PQ 19% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 54% CAQ 46% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 82% CAQ 18% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 91% CAQ 9% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 78% CAQ 22% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 65% PQ 35% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 82% CAQ 18% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 79% CAQ 21% CPQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 97% LIB 3% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 98% LIB 2% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ >99% LIB <1% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2025-10-05 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader
97% 3% 44% ± 6% 56% ± 6% Projection of support for souvereignty | Blainville YES NO 338Canada October 5, 2025