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Quebec

Blainville


MNA: Mario Laframboise (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Blainville 31% ± 6%▲ CAQ 30% ± 6%▼ PQ 20% ± 5%▲ LIB 9% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 49.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Blainville 52%▲ CAQ 48%▼ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Blainville

LIB 20% ± 5% PQ 30% ± 6% CAQ 31% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Blainville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 49% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 49% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 49% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 20% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 45% PQ 23% QS 14% LIB 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 42% PQ 21% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 42% PQ 21% QS 14% LIB 12% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 40% PQ 22% QS 13% LIB 13% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 32% PQ 30% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 32% CAQ 31% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 35% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 36% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 36% CAQ 27% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 35% CAQ 30% LIB 15% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 34% CAQ 29% LIB 17% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 32% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 33% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 29% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 31% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 29% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% CAQ 30% LIB 16% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 31% PQ 30% LIB 20% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Blainville

LIB <1% PQ 48% CAQ 52% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 72% PQ 28% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 52% CAQ 48% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 59% CAQ 41% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 87% CAQ 13% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 67% CAQ 33% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 81% PQ 19% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 54% CAQ 46% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 78% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Blainville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.3% 48.3% 49.4% 31% ± 6% PQ 28.5% 13.6% 15.4% 30% ± 6% QS 6.5% 15.1% 14.0% 9% ± 3% LIB 30.9% 19.1% 11.0% 20% ± 5% CPQ 0.6% 0.0% 9.8% 9% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%