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Quebec

Bonaventure


MNA: Catherine Blouin (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Bonaventure 53% ± 8%▲ PQ 22% ± 6%▲ CAQ 12% ± 5%▼ LIB 7% ± 4% QS 5% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 44.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bonaventure >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bonaventure

LIB 12% ± 5% PQ 53% ± 8% CAQ 22% ± 6% QS 7% ± 4% CPQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Bonaventure 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 51% CAQ 25% QS 10% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 49% CAQ 26% QS 10% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 51% CAQ 24% QS 10% LIB 9% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 52% CAQ 24% LIB 10% QS 9% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 51% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 8% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 51% CAQ 24% LIB 11% QS 8% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 52% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 8% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 50% CAQ 23% LIB 11% QS 9% CPQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 52% CAQ 22% LIB 11% QS 8% CPQ 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 55% CAQ 20% LIB 10% QS 8% CPQ 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 56% CAQ 19% LIB 11% QS 8% CPQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 54% CAQ 21% LIB 11% QS 8% CPQ 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 53% CAQ 20% LIB 13% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 53% CAQ 20% LIB 13% QS 6% CPQ 6% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 52% CAQ 21% LIB 13% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 53% CAQ 22% LIB 12% QS 7% CPQ 5% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Bonaventure

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Bonaventure



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 4.3% 16.0% 44.5% 22% ± 6% PQ 45.7% 38.5% 30.1% 53% ± 8% QS 6.2% 15.0% 10.8% 7% ± 4% LIB 42.2% 25.5% 8.6% 12% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%