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Quebec

Bonaventure


MNA: Catherine Blouin (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 7, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Bonaventure 51% ± 8% PQ 24% ± 7%▲ CAQ 11% ± 5% LIB 8% ± 4% QS 4% ± 3%▼ QCP CAQ 2022 44.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bonaventure >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 7, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bonaventure

LIB 11% ± 5% PQ 51% ± 8% CAQ 24% ± 7% QS 8% ± 4% QCP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Bonaventure 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP June 7, 2024

Odds of winning | Bonaventure

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 7, 2024

Recent electoral history | Bonaventure



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 4.3% 16.0% 44.5% 24% ± 7% PQ 45.7% 38.5% 30.1% 51% ± 8% QS 6.2% 15.0% 10.8% 8% ± 4% LIB 42.2% 25.5% 8.6% 11% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 4% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.