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Quebec

René-Lévesque


MNA: Yves Montigny

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe PQ gain
René-Lévesque 53% ± 9%▼ PQ 28% ± 7%▲ CAQ 8% ± 4% CPQ 7% ± 4% QS 2% ± 2% LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 58.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% René-Lévesque >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | René-Lévesque

PQ 53% ± 9% CAQ 28% ± 7% QS 7% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | René-Lévesque 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 41% PQ 33% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 42% PQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 41% PQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 40% PQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 40% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 40% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 40% PQ 31% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 40% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 40% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 40% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 40% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 40% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 40% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 38% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 39% PQ 30% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 39% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 40% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 40% PQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 37% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 37% PQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 37% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 37% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 38% PQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 40% PQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 40% PQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 37% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 38% PQ 33% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 39% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 39% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 39% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 39% PQ 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 59% PQ 21% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 58% PQ 24% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 58% PQ 24% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 56% PQ 26% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 56% PQ 26% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 36% QS 8% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 48% PQ 37% QS 8% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 48% PQ 37% QS 8% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% PQ 32% QS 8% CPQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 48% PQ 32% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 48% PQ 32% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 43% CAQ 37% CPQ 8% QS 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 48% CAQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 49% CAQ 30% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 49% CAQ 32% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 46% CAQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 49% CAQ 31% QS 9% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 50% CAQ 31% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 49% CAQ 30% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 49% CAQ 31% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 50% CAQ 30% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 49% CAQ 30% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 50% CAQ 29% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 54% CAQ 27% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 55% CAQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 53% CAQ 28% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | René-Lévesque

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 86% PQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 95% PQ 5% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 87% PQ 13% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 91% PQ 9% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 73% PQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 74% PQ 26% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 76% PQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 81% PQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 90% PQ 10% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 70% PQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 75% PQ 25% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 83% PQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 83% PQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 83% PQ 17% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 84% PQ 16% QS <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 93% PQ 7% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | René-Lévesque



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 15.7% 33.7% 58.9% 28% ± 7% PQ 55.0% 42.2% 21.2% 53% ± 9% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 10.1% 8% ± 4% QS 6.5% 10.2% 7.6% 7% ± 4% LIB 21.8% 12.8% 1.6% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.