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Quebec

René-Lévesque


MNA: Yves Montigny (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
René-Lévesque 51% ± 9%▼ PQ 27% ± 7%▼ CAQ 9% ± 4%▲ CPQ 6% ± 4%▼ QS 4% ± 3%▲ LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 58.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% René-Lévesque >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | René-Lévesque

LIB 4% ± 3% PQ 51% ± 9% CAQ 27% ± 7% QS 6% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | René-Lévesque 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 59% PQ 21% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 2% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 58% PQ 24% CPQ 9% QS 7% LIB 2% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 58% PQ 24% CPQ 9% QS 7% LIB 2% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 56% PQ 26% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 2% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 56% PQ 26% QS 9% CPQ 7% LIB 2% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 36% QS 8% CPQ 7% LIB 2% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 48% PQ 37% QS 8% CPQ 6% LIB 1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 48% PQ 37% QS 8% CPQ 6% LIB 1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% PQ 32% QS 8% CPQ 6% LIB 1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 48% PQ 32% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 48% PQ 32% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 43% CAQ 37% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 45% CAQ 34% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 48% CAQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 49% CAQ 30% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 49% CAQ 32% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 46% CAQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 9% LIB 2% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 49% CAQ 31% QS 9% CPQ 8% LIB 2% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 50% CAQ 31% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 49% CAQ 30% CPQ 9% QS 7% LIB 3% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 49% CAQ 31% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 50% CAQ 30% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 49% CAQ 30% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 2% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 50% CAQ 29% CPQ 9% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 54% CAQ 27% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 55% CAQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 53% CAQ 28% CPQ 8% QS 7% LIB 2% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 51% CAQ 27% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 4% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | René-Lévesque

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 94% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 93% PQ 7% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 80% CAQ 20% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | René-Lévesque



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 15.7% 33.7% 58.9% 27% ± 7% PQ 55.0% 42.2% 21.2% 51% ± 9% CPQ 0.0% 1.1% 10.1% 9% ± 4% QS 6.5% 10.2% 7.6% 6% ± 4% LIB 21.8% 12.8% 1.6% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%