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Quebec

Drummond–Bois-Francs


MNA: Sébastien Schneeberger (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Leaning PQ gain
Drummond–Bois-Francs 35% ± 7%▼ PQ 31% ± 6% CAQ 15% ± 5%▲ CPQ 9% ± 4%▼ QS 7% ± 3%▲ LIB CAQ 2022 51.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Drummond–Bois-Francs 82%▼ PQ 18%▲ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Drummond–Bois-Francs

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 35% ± 7% CAQ 31% ± 6% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Drummond–Bois-Francs 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% CPQ 17% PQ 15% QS 11% LIB 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 51% PQ 17% CPQ 16% QS 10% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 51% PQ 17% CPQ 16% QS 10% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 51% PQ 19% CPQ 13% QS 12% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 51% PQ 19% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 46% PQ 26% CPQ 12% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 46% PQ 28% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 47% PQ 28% QS 11% CPQ 11% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 49% PQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 46% PQ 22% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 46% PQ 22% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 37% PQ 32% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 34% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 12% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 13% LIB 4% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 34% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 34% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 38% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 39% CAQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 35% CAQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Drummond–Bois-Francs

LIB <1% PQ 82% CAQ 18% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 78% PQ 22% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 50% PQ 50% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 58% CAQ 42% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 50% CAQ 50% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 57% CAQ 43% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 57% PQ 43% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 65% CAQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 86% CAQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Drummond–Bois-Francs



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 39.9% 56.3% 51.6% 31% ± 6% CPQ 0.8% 2.2% 17.4% 15% ± 5% PQ 26.3% 12.5% 15.0% 35% ± 7% QS 6.2% 15.0% 10.6% 9% ± 4% LIB 25.2% 13.0% 4.0% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%