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Quebec

Drummond–Bois-Francs


MNA: Sébastien Schneeberger (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Leaning PQ gain
Drummond–Bois-Francs 35% ± 7% PQ 32% ± 6% CAQ 15% ± 5% CPQ 9% ± 3% QS 7% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 51.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Drummond–Bois-Francs 72% PQ 28% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Drummond–Bois-Francs

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 35% ± 7% CAQ 32% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Drummond–Bois-Francs 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 35% PQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 13% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 34% PQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 34% PQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 14% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 11% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 33% CPQ 15% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 38% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 39% CAQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37% CAQ 31% CPQ 14% QS 10% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 35% CAQ 31% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 36% CAQ 30% CPQ 16% QS 8% LIB 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 35% CAQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 35% CAQ 32% CPQ 15% QS 9% LIB 7% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Drummond–Bois-Francs

LIB <1% PQ 72% CAQ 28% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 50% CAQ 50% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 57% CAQ 43% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 52% PQ 48% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 57% PQ 43% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 53% PQ 47% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 65% CAQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 86% CAQ 14% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 72% CAQ 28% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 72% CAQ 28% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Drummond–Bois-Francs



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 39.9% 56.3% 51.6% 32% ± 6% CPQ 0.8% 2.2% 17.4% 15% ± 5% PQ 26.3% 12.5% 15.0% 35% ± 7% QS 6.2% 15.0% 10.6% 9% ± 3% LIB 25.2% 13.0% 4.0% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%