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Quebec


Bertrand


MNA: France-Élaine Duranceau (CAQ)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

Leaning PQ gain
Bertrand 36% ± 7%▲ 32% ± 7%▼ 16% ± 5%▲ 8% ± 3% 6% ± 3% CAQ 2022 45.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Bertrand 80%▲ 20%▼ <1% Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bertrand

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 36% ± 7% CAQ 32% ± 7% QS 16% ± 5% QCP 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Bertrand 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Bertrand

LIB <1% PQ 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Bertrand



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 25.4% 41.6% 45.3% 32% ± 7% PQ 40.5% 23.4% 20.6% 36% ± 7% QS 8.1% 18.1% 16.1% 16% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 0.8% 9.8% 8% ± 3% LIB 24.6% 13.4% 6.0% 6% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%