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Quebec

Bertrand


MNA: France-Élaine Duranceau (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Bertrand 47% ± 7%▼ PQ 23% ± 6% CAQ 10% ± 4%▼ QS 10% ± 4%▲ LIB 8% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 45.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bertrand >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bertrand

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 47% ± 7% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Bertrand 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% PQ 21% QS 16% CPQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 44% PQ 23% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 44% PQ 23% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 43% PQ 25% QS 18% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 43% PQ 25% QS 18% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 37% PQ 34% QS 17% CPQ 6% LIB 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 37% PQ 35% QS 17% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 37% PQ 35% QS 17% CPQ 6% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 40% PQ 31% QS 16% CPQ 6% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 37% PQ 30% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 37% PQ 30% QS 16% CPQ 9% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 36% CAQ 32% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 42% CAQ 28% QS 16% CPQ 7% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 43% CAQ 25% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 44% CAQ 26% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 42% CAQ 28% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 44% CAQ 26% QS 15% CPQ 7% LIB 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 46% CAQ 26% QS 12% CPQ 7% LIB 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 44% CAQ 26% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 44% CAQ 26% QS 11% LIB 8% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 45% CAQ 25% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 44% CAQ 26% QS 12% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 46% CAQ 25% QS 11% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 49% CAQ 23% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 50% CAQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 48% CAQ 23% QS 11% CPQ 8% LIB 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 47% CAQ 23% QS 10% LIB 10% CPQ 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Bertrand

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 67% PQ 33% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 60% PQ 40% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 94% PQ 6% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 53% CAQ 47% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 80% CAQ 20% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Bertrand



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 25.4% 41.6% 45.3% 23% ± 6% PQ 40.5% 23.4% 20.6% 47% ± 7% QS 8.1% 18.1% 16.1% 10% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.8% 9.8% 8% ± 3% LIB 24.6% 13.4% 6.0% 10% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%