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Quebec

Roberval


MNA: Nancy Guillemette (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Safe PQ

Roberval 50% ± 8%▲ PQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 11% ± 4%▼ CPQ 7% ± 3% LIB 5% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 56.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Roberval >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Roberval

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 50% ± 8% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 5% ± 3% CPQ 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Roberval 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 40% PQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 37% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 39% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% LIB 6% QS 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 40% CAQ 37% CPQ 9% LIB 6% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 40% CAQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CAQ 33% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 46% CAQ 32% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 43% CAQ 34% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 46% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% LIB 7% QS 6% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 47% CAQ 26% CPQ 12% LIB 7% QS 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 46% CAQ 28% CPQ 12% LIB 7% QS 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 46% CAQ 28% CPQ 12% LIB 7% QS 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 50% CAQ 24% CPQ 11% LIB 7% QS 5% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Roberval

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 57% CAQ 43% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 67% PQ 33% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 60% CAQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 70% CAQ 30% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 69% CAQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 65% CAQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 76% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 69% CAQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Roberval



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.9% 24.2% 56.2% 24% ± 6% PQ 33.3% 19.0% 20.5% 50% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 1.7% 11.4% 11% ± 4% QS 3.2% 10.7% 6.8% 5% ± 3% LIB 55.2% 42.5% 4.6% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%