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Quebec


Roberval


MNA: Nancy Guillemette (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Toss up PQ/CAQ
Roberval 39% ± 8%▲ 38% ± 8%▼ 9% ± 4%▼ 8% ± 4% 5% ± 3% CAQ 2022 56.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Roberval 56%▲ 44%▼ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Roberval

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 39% ± 8% CAQ 38% ± 8% QS 8% ± 4% QCP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Roberval 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Roberval

LIB <1% PQ 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Roberval



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.9% 24.2% 56.2% 38% ± 8% PQ 33.3% 19.0% 20.5% 39% ± 8% QCP 0.0% 1.7% 11.4% 9% ± 4% QS 3.2% 10.7% 6.8% 8% ± 4% LIB 55.2% 42.5% 4.6% 5% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%