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Quebec

Roberval


MNA: Nancy Guillemette (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe PQ gain
Roberval 46% ± 8%▲ PQ 27% ± 7%▼ CAQ 12% ± 5%▲ CPQ 7% ± 3%▲ LIB 6% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 56.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Roberval >99%▲ PQ <1%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Roberval

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 46% ± 8% CAQ 27% ± 7% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Roberval 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 56% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 55% PQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 55% PQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 54% PQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 54% PQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 47% PQ 34% CPQ 7% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 48% PQ 35% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 48% PQ 35% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% PQ 31% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 47% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 47% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 42% PQ 35% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 39% PQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 40% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 40% PQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 37% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 39% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% LIB 6% QS 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 40% CAQ 37% CPQ 9% LIB 6% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 40% CAQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CAQ 33% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 46% CAQ 32% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 43% CAQ 34% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 46% CAQ 27% CPQ 12% LIB 7% QS 6% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Roberval

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 98% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 96% PQ 4% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 97% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 85% PQ 15% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 63% PQ 37% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 56% CAQ 44% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 73% CAQ 27% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 57% CAQ 43% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 67% PQ 33% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 60% CAQ 40% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 70% CAQ 30% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 69% CAQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 65% CAQ 35% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 76% CAQ 24% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 69% CAQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Roberval



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.9% 24.2% 56.2% 27% ± 7% PQ 33.3% 19.0% 20.5% 46% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 1.7% 11.4% 12% ± 5% QS 3.2% 10.7% 6.8% 6% ± 3% LIB 55.2% 42.5% 4.6% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%