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Quebec

Roberval


MNA: Nancy Guillemette

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Roberval 45% ± 8%▲ PQ 33% ± 7%▼ CAQ 9% ± 4%▼ CPQ 6% ± 3% QS 5% ± 3% LIB CAQ 2022 56.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Roberval 97%▲ PQ 3%▼ CAQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Roberval

LIB 5% ± 3% PQ 45% ± 8% CAQ 33% ± 7% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Roberval 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 51% LIB 17% CPQ 13% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 51% LIB 16% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 48% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 48% CPQ 17% LIB 16% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% LIB 16% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 16% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 16% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 15% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 15% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 15% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 48% CPQ 19% LIB 15% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 47% CPQ 18% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 47% CPQ 18% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 47% CPQ 18% LIB 15% QS 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 45% CPQ 19% LIB 15% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 45% CPQ 19% LIB 13% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 45% CPQ 19% LIB 13% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 45% CPQ 18% LIB 13% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 45% CPQ 19% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 47% CPQ 19% LIB 14% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 45% CPQ 19% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 46% CPQ 18% LIB 14% QS 11% PQ 11% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 46% CPQ 17% LIB 14% PQ 11% QS 11% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 56% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 7% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 55% PQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 55% PQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 54% PQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 54% PQ 25% CPQ 8% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 47% PQ 34% CPQ 7% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 48% PQ 35% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 48% PQ 35% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% PQ 31% QS 7% CPQ 7% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 47% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 47% PQ 30% CPQ 11% QS 7% LIB 4% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 42% PQ 35% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 4% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 39% PQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 40% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 10% QS 7% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 40% PQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 39% CAQ 38% CPQ 9% QS 8% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 37% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 39% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% LIB 6% QS 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 40% CAQ 37% CPQ 9% LIB 6% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 40% CAQ 37% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 41% CAQ 36% CPQ 10% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CAQ 33% CPQ 9% QS 6% LIB 5% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Roberval

LIB <1% PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 98% PQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 97% PQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 85% PQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 63% PQ 37% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 73% CAQ 27% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 57% CAQ 43% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 67% PQ 33% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 60% CAQ 40% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 69% CAQ 31% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 65% CAQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 76% CAQ 24% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 69% CAQ 31% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Roberval



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 6.9% 24.2% 56.2% 33% ± 7% PQ 33.3% 19.0% 20.5% 45% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 1.7% 11.4% 9% ± 4% QS 3.2% 10.7% 6.8% 6% ± 3% LIB 55.2% 42.5% 4.6% 5% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.