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Quebec


Mirabel


MNA: Sylvie D’Amours (CAQ)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

Leaning CAQ hold
Mirabel 35% ± 7%▼ 32% ± 7%▲ 14% ± 4% 10% ± 4%▼ 7% ± 3% CAQ 2022 50.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mirabel 73%▼ 27%▲ <1% Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mirabel

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 32% ± 7% CAQ 35% ± 7% QS 14% ± 4% QCP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Mirabel 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Mirabel

LIB <1% PQ 27% CAQ 73% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Mirabel



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 39.3% 54.6% 50.1% 35% ± 7% PQ 34.4% 18.1% 16.8% 32% ± 7% QS 6.2% 15.0% 14.4% 14% ± 4% QCP 0.5% 0.8% 11.4% 10% ± 4% LIB 19.2% 9.0% 6.8% 7% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%