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Quebec

Mirabel


MNA: Sylvie D’Amours (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Toss up PQ/CAQ
Mirabel 34% ± 6%▼ PQ 33% ± 6%▲ CAQ 12% ± 4%▲ LIB 10% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 50.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mirabel 62%▼ PQ 38%▲ CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mirabel

LIB 12% ± 4% PQ 34% ± 6% CAQ 33% ± 6% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Mirabel 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 50% PQ 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 49% PQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 49% PQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 49% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 21% QS 16% CPQ 8% LIB 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 50% PQ 22% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 50% PQ 22% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 46% PQ 24% QS 14% CPQ 8% LIB 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 43% PQ 23% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 43% PQ 23% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 41% PQ 26% QS 14% CPQ 11% LIB 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 32% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 34% CAQ 34% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 37% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 35% CAQ 34% QS 13% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 39% CAQ 30% QS 13% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 41% CAQ 28% QS 13% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 41% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 39% CAQ 29% CPQ 10% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 38% CAQ 33% QS 9% CPQ 9% LIB 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 38% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 35% PQ 33% QS 11% CPQ 10% LIB 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 35% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 10% LIB 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 38% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% LIB 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 39% CAQ 30% QS 10% CPQ 10% LIB 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 37% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 10% LIB 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 34% CAQ 33% LIB 12% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Mirabel

LIB <1% PQ 62% CAQ 38% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 73% PQ 27% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 51% CAQ 49% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 58% CAQ 42% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 82% CAQ 18% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 69% PQ 31% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 71% CAQ 29% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 88% CAQ 12% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 62% CAQ 38% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Mirabel



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 39.3% 54.6% 50.1% 33% ± 6% PQ 34.4% 18.1% 16.8% 34% ± 6% QS 6.2% 15.0% 14.4% 9% ± 3% CPQ 0.5% 0.8% 11.4% 10% ± 4% LIB 19.2% 9.0% 6.8% 12% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%