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Quebec

Vachon


MNA: Iann Lafrenière

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Likely PQ gain
Vachon 36% ± 7%▼ PQ 23% ± 6%▲ CAQ 20% ± 6% LIB 11% ± 4% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ CAQ 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vachon >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vachon

LIB 20% ± 6% PQ 36% ± 7% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 11% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vachon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 52% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 52% QS 13% CPQ 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 13% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 49% CPQ 17% LIB 11% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 50% CPQ 17% LIB 11% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 48% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% QS 12% LIB 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 49% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 46% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 13% LIB 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 47% CPQ 16% PQ 14% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 48% CPQ 15% PQ 14% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% PQ 14% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 47% CPQ 15% PQ 15% QS 12% LIB 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% LIB 16% QS 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 44% LIB 16% PQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 44% LIB 16% PQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 44% PQ 17% QS 16% LIB 16% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 44% PQ 17% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 44% LIB 17% QS 16% PQ 16% CPQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 45% PQ 17% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 45% PQ 17% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 42% PQ 20% LIB 15% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 38% PQ 18% LIB 17% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 38% PQ 18% LIB 17% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 37% PQ 20% LIB 18% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 29% PQ 27% LIB 18% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 30% CAQ 27% LIB 18% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 32% CAQ 26% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 36% CAQ 25% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 38% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 38% CAQ 23% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 37% CAQ 22% LIB 21% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 36% CAQ 25% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 36% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 32% CAQ 26% LIB 20% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 34% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 22% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Vachon

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 72% PQ 28% LIB <1% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 72% CAQ 28% LIB <1% QS <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 99% CAQ 0% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Vachon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 25.3% 43.6% 44.9% 23% ± 6% LIB 32.6% 21.0% 16.1% 20% ± 6% QS 7.3% 14.5% 15.0% 11% ± 4% PQ 33.1% 17.0% 13.4% 36% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 1.2% 8.9% 9% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.