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Quebec

Recent electoral history | Vachon


2014 2018 2022 Projection PQ 33% ± 7% 33.1% 17.0% 13.4% LIB 31% ± 7% 32.6% 21.0% 16.1% CAQ 15% ± 5% 25.3% 43.6% 44.9% CPQ 11% ± 4% 0.0% 1.2% 8.9% QS 7% ± 3% 7.3% 14.5% 15.0%

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338Canada Vachon projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Vachon 26% 40% 33% ± 7% PQ 24% 38% 31% ± 7% LIB 10% 20% 15% ± 5% CAQ 7% 15% 11% ± 4% CPQ 4% 10% 7% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vachon 65%▼ PQ 35%▲ LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vachon

LIB 31% ± 7% PQ 33% ± 7% CAQ 15% ± 5% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vachon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 34% LIB 24% CAQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 33% CAQ 24% LIB 23% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 33% CAQ 25% LIB 22% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 24% LIB 24% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 32% LIB 29% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 33% LIB 29% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 34% LIB 29% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 37% LIB 28% CAQ 18% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 39% LIB 30% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 39% LIB 30% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% QS 6% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 38% LIB 30% CAQ 15% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 33% LIB 32% CAQ 17% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 38% LIB 27% CAQ 17% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 36% LIB 26% CAQ 18% CPQ 11% QS 6% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 37% LIB 28% CAQ 16% CPQ 12% QS 6% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 35% LIB 30% CAQ 17% CPQ 10% QS 6% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 34% LIB 31% CAQ 16% CPQ 11% QS 7% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 33% LIB 31% CAQ 15% CPQ 11% QS 7% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Vachon

LIB 35% PQ 65% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 98% LIB 2% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 95% CAQ 3% LIB 2% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 96% LIB 2% CAQ 2% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 76% LIB 24% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 79% LIB 21% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 85% LIB 15% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 95% LIB 5% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 95% LIB 5% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 95% LIB 5% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 93% LIB 7% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 60% LIB 40% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 98% LIB 2% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 98% LIB 2% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 96% LIB 4% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 PQ 81% LIB 19% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 PQ 70% LIB 30% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 PQ 65% LIB 35% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2026-03-05 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader Rodriguez resigns Legault resigns Milliard PLQ leader
>99% <1% 41% ± 6% 59% ± 6% Projection of support for sovereignty | Vachon YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


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Demographic data | Vachon

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 79.9% French 8.6% English 3.0% Spanish 1.5% Arabic 1.0% Romanian 0.8% Dari 0.6% MandarinVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 10.1% No diploma 17.2% High school 17.2% Trade 20.0% College / Cégep 5.4% Some university 19.3% Bachelor's 10.8% PostgraduateVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 75.1% Not visible minority 24.9% Visible minority 8.2% Black 4.8% Arab 4.2% Latin American 1.8% Chinese 1.6% West Asian 1.6% South AsianVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 49.7% Catholic 26.3% No Religion 8.5% Muslim 6.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 2.8% Orthodox 1.7% Other Christian 0.7% Buddhist 0.7% Jehovah's WitnessVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 76.8% Owner 23.2% RenterVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.8% Employed 32.8% Not in labour force 4.4% UnemployedVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.8% Non-Indigenous 1.2% Indigenous identity 0.6% First Nations 0.6% MetisVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 82.7% Car / truck / van 12.3% Public transit 2.7% Walking 1.5% Other 0.8% BicycleVachonSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.