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Quebec

Vachon


MNA: Iann Lafrenière (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Leaning PQ

Recent electoral history | Vachon


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PQ 33% ± 7% 33.1% 17.0% 13.4% LIB 29% ± 6% 32.6% 21.0% 16.1% CAQ 18% ± 5% 25.3% 43.6% 44.9% CPQ 10% ± 4% 0.0% 1.2% 8.9% QS 9% ± 3% 7.3% 14.5% 15.0%




338Canada projection for Vachon


Vachon 33% ± 7%▲ PQ 29% ± 6% LIB 18% ± 5% CAQ 10% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vachon 79%▲ PQ 21%▼ LIB <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vachon

LIB 29% ± 6% PQ 33% ± 7% CAQ 18% ± 5% QS 9% ± 3% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vachon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 28% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 36% CAQ 25% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 38% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 38% CAQ 23% LIB 19% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 37% CAQ 22% LIB 21% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 36% CAQ 25% LIB 20% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 36% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 32% CAQ 26% LIB 20% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 34% CAQ 24% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 37% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 38% CAQ 22% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 36% CAQ 23% LIB 20% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 33% LIB 24% CAQ 23% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 34% LIB 24% CAQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 33% CAQ 24% LIB 23% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 33% CAQ 25% LIB 22% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 24% LIB 24% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 32% LIB 29% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 33% LIB 29% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Vachon

LIB 21% PQ 79% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 80% CAQ 20% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 99% CAQ 0% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 97% LIB 2% CAQ 1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 98% LIB 2% CAQ 1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 95% CAQ 3% LIB 2% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 97% CAQ 3% LIB 1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 96% LIB 2% CAQ 2% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 76% LIB 24% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 79% LIB 21% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader