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Quebec


Jean-Talon


MNA: Pascal Paradis (PQ)


Latest projection: March 21, 2024

Safe PQ gain
Jean-Talon 51% ± 8%▲ 20% ± 6% 15% ± 5%▼ 10% ± 4% 3% ± 2%▼ CAQ 2022 32.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Jean-Talon >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Talon

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 51% ± 8% CAQ 15% ± 5% QS 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Talon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 21, 2024

Odds of winning | Jean-Talon

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 21, 2024

Recent electoral history | Jean-Talon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 20.6% 28.6% 32.5% 15% ± 5% QS 9.1% 19.2% 23.8% 20% ± 6% PQ 22.5% 14.5% 18.7% 51% ± 8% LIB 44.5% 32.6% 13.5% 10% ± 4% QCP 0.6% 1.8% 10.4% 3% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.