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Quebec

Jean-Talon


MNA: Pascal Paradis

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe PQ gain
Jean-Talon 45% ± 7%▲ PQ 14% ± 5% CPQ 14% ± 5% LIB 13% ± 4%▼ CAQ 13% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 32.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jean-Talon >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Talon

LIB 14% ± 5% PQ 45% ± 7% CAQ 13% ± 4% QS 13% ± 4% CPQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Talon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 36% LIB 20% QS 20% CPQ 12% PQ 9% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 38% QS 19% LIB 19% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 38% QS 19% LIB 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 38% QS 19% LIB 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 38% QS 19% LIB 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 38% LIB 19% QS 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 19% CPQ 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 19% CPQ 14% PQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 38% LIB 19% QS 19% CPQ 14% PQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 38% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 14% PQ 9% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 16% PQ 9% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 16% PQ 9% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 38% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 16% PQ 9% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 38% LIB 19% QS 16% CPQ 16% PQ 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 36% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 15% PQ 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 37% LIB 19% QS 18% CPQ 15% PQ 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 35% LIB 18% QS 17% CPQ 15% PQ 11% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 37% QS 18% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 37% QS 18% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 37% QS 18% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 37% QS 18% CPQ 16% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 40% QS 17% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 40% QS 17% CPQ 16% LIB 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 38% QS 18% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 38% QS 17% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 39% QS 17% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 39% QS 18% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 39% QS 17% CPQ 15% LIB 14% PQ 12% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 38% QS 17% CPQ 14% LIB 14% PQ 13% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 33% QS 24% PQ 19% LIB 13% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 32% QS 23% PQ 21% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 32% QS 23% PQ 21% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 31% QS 25% PQ 23% LIB 13% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 31% QS 25% PQ 23% LIB 13% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 26% CAQ 26% QS 25% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 31% QS 27% CAQ 25% LIB 11% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 31% CAQ 30% QS 20% LIB 13% CPQ 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 31% CAQ 31% QS 19% LIB 12% CPQ 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 31% CAQ 29% QS 18% LIB 12% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ 44% CAQ 22% QS 17% LIB 9% CPQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ 44% CAQ 23% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 48% CAQ 18% QS 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 51% QS 17% CAQ 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 50% QS 20% CAQ 13% LIB 10% CPQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 51% QS 19% CAQ 14% LIB 9% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 46% QS 20% CAQ 16% LIB 10% CPQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 51% QS 20% CAQ 15% LIB 10% CPQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 51% QS 16% LIB 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 3% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 42% LIB 17% CAQ 17% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 41% CAQ 17% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 42% CAQ 17% LIB 16% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 44% CAQ 15% LIB 14% QS 14% CPQ 12% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 43% CAQ 15% CPQ 14% LIB 14% QS 13% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 45% CPQ 14% LIB 14% CAQ 13% QS 13% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Jean-Talon

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 93% QS 5% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 93% QS 5% PQ 2% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 87% QS 9% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 86% QS 11% PQ 3% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 PQ 40% CAQ 37% QS 23% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 PQ 73% QS 19% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 PQ 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 PQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 PQ 65% CAQ 35% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Jean-Talon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 20.6% 28.6% 32.5% 13% ± 4% QS 9.1% 19.2% 23.8% 13% ± 4% PQ 22.5% 14.5% 18.7% 45% ± 7% LIB 44.5% 32.6% 13.5% 14% ± 5% CPQ 0.6% 1.8% 10.4% 14% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.