logo
Quebec


Jean-Talon


MNA: Vacant (OTH)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

Toss up PQ/CAQ
Jean-Talon 31% ± 7% 29% ± 7%▼ 18% ± 5%▼ 12% ± 4% 9% ± 4%▲ CAQ 2022 32.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Jean-Talon 65%▲ 35%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jean-Talon

LIB 12% ± 4% PQ 31% ± 7% CAQ 29% ± 7% QS 18% ± 5% QCP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Jean-Talon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Jean-Talon

LIB <1% PQ 65% CAQ 35% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Jean-Talon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 20.6% 28.6% 32.5% 29% ± 7% QS 9.1% 19.2% 23.8% 18% ± 5% PQ 22.5% 14.5% 18.7% 31% ± 7% LIB 44.5% 32.6% 13.5% 12% ± 4% QCP 0.6% 1.8% 10.4% 9% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%