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Quebec

Montmorency


MNA: Jean-François Simard (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Toss up PQ/CPQ

Montmorency 32% ± 6%▲ PQ 30% ± 7%▼ CPQ 18% ± 5%▼ CAQ 11% ± 4%▲ LIB 8% ± 3% QS CAQ 2022 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montmorency 60%▲ PQ 40%▼ CPQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Montmorency

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 32% ± 6% CAQ 18% ± 5% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 30% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 33% CPQ 24% CAQ 21% QS 15% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 28% CPQ 28% CAQ 22% QS 15% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34% CPQ 24% CAQ 21% QS 14% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 34% CPQ 23% CAQ 21% QS 12% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 28% CAQ 25% CPQ 23% LIB 12% QS 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 27% CAQ 25% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 27% CPQ 25% CAQ 24% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 29% CPQ 26% CAQ 23% QS 11% LIB 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 29% CPQ 28% CAQ 22% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 31% CPQ 28% CAQ 21% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 32% CPQ 28% CAQ 20% QS 10% LIB 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 30% CPQ 29% CAQ 20% QS 10% LIB 10% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 32% PQ 28% CAQ 20% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 36% PQ 27% CAQ 17% LIB 11% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 35% PQ 26% CAQ 19% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 35% PQ 27% CAQ 19% LIB 10% QS 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 32% CPQ 30% CAQ 18% LIB 11% QS 8% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Montmorency

LIB <1% PQ 60% CAQ <1% CPQ 40% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 97% CPQ 3% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 50% CPQ 48% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 98% CPQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 98% CPQ 2% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 71% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 51% CPQ 26% CAQ 22% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 59% CPQ 27% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 68% CPQ 28% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 54% CPQ 45% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 73% CPQ 27% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 76% CPQ 24% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 62% CPQ 38% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 75% PQ 25% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 96% PQ 4% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 60% CPQ 40% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Montmorency



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.8% 51.2% 45.2% 18% ± 5% CPQ 2.4% 3.8% 26.1% 30% ± 7% QS 4.7% 13.0% 12.0% 8% ± 3% PQ 17.1% 10.6% 11.3% 32% ± 6% LIB 40.4% 18.6% 4.7% 11% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%