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Quebec

Montmorency


MNA: Jean-François Simard (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 7, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP
Montmorency 27% ± 6%▼ PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 25% ± 7%▲ QCP 11% ± 4%▼ LIB 10% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montmorency 51%▼ PQ 26%▲ QCP 22%▲ CAQ Odds of winning | June 7, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Montmorency

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 25% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 25% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP June 7, 2024

Odds of winning | Montmorency

LIB <1% PQ 51% CAQ 22% QS <1% QCP 26% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP June 7, 2024

Recent electoral history | Montmorency



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.8% 51.2% 45.2% 25% ± 6% QCP 2.4% 3.8% 26.1% 25% ± 7% QS 4.7% 13.0% 12.0% 10% ± 4% PQ 17.1% 10.6% 11.3% 27% ± 6% LIB 40.4% 18.6% 4.7% 11% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.