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Quebec

Montmorency


MNA: Jean-François Simard (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
Montmorency 27% ± 6% PQ 25% ± 7% CPQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 11% ± 4% LIB 10% ± 4% QS CAQ 2022 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montmorency 59%▲ PQ 27%▲ CPQ 15%▼ CAQ Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Montmorency

LIB 11% ± 4% PQ 27% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 25% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 44% CPQ 26% QS 12% LIB 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 45% CPQ 28% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 43% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 43% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 43% CPQ 29% QS 12% LIB 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 43% CPQ 29% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 44% CPQ 27% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 44% CPQ 27% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 44% CPQ 27% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 44% CPQ 29% QS 10% LIB 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 43% CPQ 30% QS 9% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 43% CPQ 30% QS 9% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 43% CPQ 30% QS 9% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 44% CPQ 30% QS 9% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 42% CPQ 29% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 43% CPQ 28% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 43% CPQ 29% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 43% CPQ 28% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 43% CPQ 29% QS 11% LIB 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 41% CPQ 28% QS 11% PQ 10% LIB 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 42% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 42% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 42% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 42% CPQ 29% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 44% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 44% CPQ 28% QS 11% PQ 9% LIB 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 42% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 43% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 43% CPQ 28% QS 12% PQ 10% LIB 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 43% CPQ 27% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 43% CPQ 27% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 43% CPQ 27% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 6% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% CPQ 26% QS 12% PQ 11% LIB 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 46% CPQ 24% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 46% CPQ 24% PQ 13% QS 12% LIB 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 46% CPQ 20% PQ 15% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 46% CPQ 20% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 32% CPQ 27% PQ 23% QS 13% LIB 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 31% PQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 14% LIB 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 31% PQ 28% CPQ 21% QS 14% LIB 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 30% PQ 27% CPQ 22% QS 13% LIB 4% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 27% CPQ 27% PQ 27% QS 12% LIB 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 27% PQ 27% CPQ 27% QS 12% LIB 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 28% PQ 27% CPQ 26% QS 11% LIB 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 31% CPQ 26% CAQ 23% QS 12% LIB 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 33% CPQ 26% CAQ 21% QS 13% LIB 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 33% CPQ 24% CAQ 20% QS 16% LIB 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 33% CPQ 24% CAQ 21% QS 15% LIB 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 28% CPQ 28% CAQ 22% QS 15% LIB 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 34% CPQ 24% CAQ 21% QS 14% LIB 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 34% CPQ 23% CAQ 21% QS 12% LIB 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 28% CAQ 25% CPQ 23% LIB 12% QS 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 27% CAQ 25% CPQ 25% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 27% CPQ 25% CAQ 24% LIB 11% QS 10% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Montmorency

LIB <1% PQ 59% CAQ 15% QS <1% CPQ 27% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 98% CPQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 99% CPQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 82% CPQ 17% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 72% PQ 27% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 72% PQ 27% CPQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 71% PQ 27% CPQ 3% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 37% CAQ 35% PQ 29% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 35% CAQ 33% PQ 32% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 40% PQ 34% CPQ 26% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 83% CPQ 15% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 91% CPQ 9% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 95% CPQ 5% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 97% CPQ 3% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 50% CPQ 48% CAQ 2% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 98% CPQ 2% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 98% CPQ 2% CAQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 71% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 51% CPQ 26% CAQ 22% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 59% CPQ 27% CAQ 15% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Montmorency



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.8% 51.2% 45.2% 24% ± 6% CPQ 2.4% 3.8% 26.1% 25% ± 7% QS 4.7% 13.0% 12.0% 10% ± 4% PQ 17.1% 10.6% 11.3% 27% ± 6% LIB 40.4% 18.6% 4.7% 11% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.