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Quebec


Montmorency


MNA: Jean-François Simard (CAQ)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

Leaning PQ gain
Montmorency 31% ± 7%▲ 26% ± 7% 23% ± 6%▼ 12% ± 4%▲ 6% ± 2%▲ CAQ 2022 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Montmorency 83%▲ 15%▼ 2%▼ Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Montmorency

LIB 6% ± 2% PQ 31% ± 7% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 12% ± 4% QCP 26% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Montmorency

LIB <1% PQ 83% CAQ 2% QS <1% QCP 15% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Recent electoral history | Montmorency



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 33.8% 51.2% 45.2% 23% ± 6% QCP 2.4% 3.8% 26.1% 26% ± 7% QS 4.7% 13.0% 12.0% 12% ± 4% PQ 17.1% 10.6% 11.3% 31% ± 7% LIB 40.4% 18.6% 4.7% 6% ± 2% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%